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清洁能源转型：石油和天然气 - 世界其他地区

化石能源2024-04-04Atradius阿***

AI智能总结

Clean Energy Transition Overview

Core Markets and Their Significance

Americas: Fossil fuels dominate energy supply, especially in the US and Canada, where they account for over 80% of domestic supply.
Middle East: Five of the global top ten oil producers are based here, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait leading.
Oceania: Australia relies heavily on oil for its primary energy mix, followed by coal and gas.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges:

Transition Emissions: Achieving the Paris Agreement's goal requires cutting emissions by 75% by 2050, posing significant challenges for oil and gas producers.
Infrastructure Disposal: Deciding how to handle redundant infrastructure after shifting focus from fossil fuels to renewables.
Grid Capacity: Ensuring existing electricity grids can handle the increased load from clean energy production.
Security of Supply: Providing stable energy supply during the transition phase and ensuring availability for sectors with challenging emission reduction targets.

Opportunities:

Government Incentives: North America's IRA and Canadian Clean Energy Plan offer opportunities through government support for renewables growth.
Hydropower Expansion: Brazil showcases the potential of leveraging natural resources for clean energy production.
Demand Growth: Expectations of growing demand for biofuels in the coming years.
Utility-Scale Solar: Potential profit margins from clean energy sources, highlighted in Australia.

Atradius Insights

North America: Emphasis on government incentives and private-public partnerships for clean energy infrastructure development.
Middle East: Opportunity for significant expansion into clean energy, with hydroelectricity being the largest source of renewable energy.
Australia: Potential for utility-scale solar photovoltaics with updated electricity grid investments.
Geopolitical Risk: Common challenge across all markets, with concerns over Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Urgent Challenges Over the Next Three Years

Maintaining Profitability: Balancing profitability with investments in new clean energy technologies poses a significant challenge.
Geopolitical Risk: Tensions and conflicts can disrupt energy markets and supply chains.
Government Regulation: Navigating diverse sustainability regulations impacts strategic planning and investment decisions.

Greatest Opportunities Over the Next Three Years

Growing Demand for Alternative Fuels: Markets like the Middle East, Brazil, Australia, and the US see increasing demand for sustainable energy sources.
New Technologies: Advancements in technology offer potential for enhanced production efficiency, cost reduction, and reduced environmental impact.
Transferable Skills: Engineering skills can be leveraged to develop and implement clean energy solutions.

Outlook

Political Support: Importance of political backing for industry players, especially in managing decommissioning and transitioning to new energy generation technologies.
Geographical Variability: Challenges and opportunities vary across regions due to differing government policies, economic conditions, and technological capabilities.

Conclusion

The clean energy transition presents both challenges and opportunities for oil and gas industries across the Americas, Middle East, and Oceania. While there's a clear need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, achieving this requires careful planning, significant investment, and navigating complex regulatory environments. Opportunities exist in expanding clean energy production, leveraging existing infrastructure, and developing new technologies, but these must be balanced against the need to maintain energy security and address geopolitical risks.

REGION-AMERICAS,MIDDLEEASTANDOCEANIA CleanEnergy Transition:Oil&Gas Demandforcleanenergyandbiofuelsexpectedtogrow Oilandgasareanintegralpartoftheenergymixofthe Americas,MiddleEastandOceania.IntheUSandCanada,fossilfuelsmakeup80%ofthedomesticsupply,with theUSaloneconsumingmoreoilthananyothercountryintheworld.BrazilisthelargestoilproducerinLatin Americaandamongtheworld’stoptenlargestproducers. FiveoftheglobaltoptenoilproducerscanbefoundintheMiddleEast; SaudiArabia,Iraq,theUnitedArabEmirates,IranandKuwait.ThevastmajorityofelectricitygeneratedintheMiddleEast(nearly95%)comesfromoilandgas. OilaccountsforthelargestshareofAustralia’sprimaryenergymix,followedbycoalthengas. Oilandgasclearlyhaveanimportantroleineachofthesemarkets,sohowwilltheyachievethetransitiontocleanenergy? SpeakingatrecentCOP28inDubai,theExecutiveDirectoroftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)said:“Oilandgasproducersaroundtheworldneedtomakeprofounddecisionsabouttheirfutureplaceintheglobalenergysector.”ToachievetheParisAgreementtargetofslowingglobalwarmingto1.5˚Cby2050,theIEAwarnsthattheoilandgasindustrywouldhavetocuttheirownemissionsby75%by2050. HighlightsintheAmericas,MiddleEastandOceania RewiringtheNation ThisisaninvestmentprogrammeofAUS20billiontoupdateAustralia’selectricitygrid,sothatitmeetthegrowingdemandforcleanelectricity. Hydro Hydro-energy,alsoknownashydroelectricpower,harnessestheenergyofflowingorfallingwatertogenerateelectricity. CanadianCleanEnergyPlanCanada’s2030EmissionsReductionPlanaimstoachieve40-45%emissionsreductions below2005levelsby2030. Diversificationislikelytobecriticalforthesurvivalofmuchoftheindustry,andthejourneyaheadwillbecomplex.Ifoilandgascompaniesinvestinswitchingtheirfocusfromfossilfuelstorenewables,willtheyberesponsibleforthedisposaloftheredundantinfrastructure?Andiftheydoinvestin growingcleanelectricityproduction,willtheexistingelectricitygridsbeabletocarrytheincreasedloadsofelectricity? What’smore,thereistheneedforongoingoilandgassuppliestoensurethesecurityofenergysupplyduringtransitionandalsotoprovidefuelforsectorsandemergingeconomieswhereloweringemissionsismuchmorechallenging.Sohowdowedecidewhichoilandgasproducerscancontinuetoproduce,andwhichneedtomakethebigdecisiontoendoperations,whichtoinvestinthe(costly)switchtocleanenergy? Industryopportunitiesincludediversificationintootherenergyservices,orareassuchasplasticsrecycling. AtradiusUnderwriter,Canada WhatdoAtradiusunderwritersseeastheprimaryissuesforthesectorinthespecificregions? InNorthAmerica,theInflationReductionAct(IRA)andCanadianCleanEnergyPlanareacceleratingenergytransitionbysupportinggrowthinrenewables.Ourunderwritersinthosemarketsnotedtheopportunitiesthatgovernmentincentivescanprovide,withourcolleaguesinCanadaaddingthatfurther possibilitiescouldbeopenedupthroughpartnershipsbetweenprivatecompaniesandgovernmententitiestodevelopcleanenergyinfrastructure.Challengesincludethecapitalcostsassociatedwithtransitionaswellasregulatoryissues. OurunderwritersinBrazilacknowledgedthesizeofcountry’shydropowerindustryandsaid:“Vastnaturalresourcescontinuetoprovideacompetitiveadvantageincleanenergyproduction.”And,inanodtonewgrowthareas,theyadded,“demandforbiofuelsisexpectedtogrowinthenextyears.”Echoingindustryconcernsaboutthecostoftransitiontheysaid:“Amajorindustrychallengeisfindingthecapitaltoinvestinnewtechnologiestoproducecleanenergywhilemaintainingprofitabilityandshareholdervalue.” IntheMiddleEast,ourindustryspecialistsacknowledgedthereisahugeopportunityfortheindustryto“makeasignificantexpansionintothisnewbusinesssegmentofcleanenergy.”HydroisthebiggestsourceofrenewableenergyintheMiddleEast,followedbyagrowingsolarsector.Transitioningfromandoilproducertoanenergyproducerholdshugepotentialfortheregion,butthishingesonthewillingnessoftheregion’sgovernmentstomoveinthatdirection. OurlocalindustryspecialistsinAustraliaalsopointto thepotentialpresentedbyutility-scalesolarphotovoltaics,includingbetterprofitmarginsfromcleanenergysources.However,ariskimpactingtheelectricitysectoristhecountry’screakingelectricitygrid.Thegovernmentprogramme,‘RewiringtheNation’isfocusingonupdatingthis. Anissuesharedacrossallofthesemarketsisgeopoliticalrisk.Eachofourindustryexpertslisteditasachallenge,withgeopoliticaluncertaintyinEasternEuropeand theMiddleEastrepresentingtheareasofmostconcern. Challenges:Whatarethemosturgentchallengesforthesectoroverthenextthreeyears? 1.Maintainingprofitability Howtomaintainprofitabilitywhilewindingdownakeybusinessareaandinvestinginnewtechnologyisoneofthebiggestchallengesfacingtheindustry.Althoughwhenfacedwiththedilemma,adaptordie,transitiontowardscleanenergymaybetheonlyoptionformostindustryplayers. 2.Geopoliticalrisk Geopoliticaltensionshavehadasignificantimpacton theenergymarket,includingtheenergycrisisthatfollowedRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.Furthermore,anescalationoftheconflictbetweenIsraelandHamascouldleadtoinstabilityintheMiddleEast’soilmarkets. 3.Governmentregulation Thereisnolevelplayingfieldwhenitcomestosustainabilityregulation.Somegovernmentshaveintroducedincentiv

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