代际进步停滞了吗？五代美国人的收入增长

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print) ISSN2767-3898(Online) HasIntergenerationalProgressStalled?IncomeGrowthOverFiveGenerationsofAmericans KevinCorinthandJeffLarrimore2024-007 Pleasecitethispaperas: Corinth,Kevin,andJeffLarrimore(2024).“HasIntergenerationalProgressStalled?IncomeGrowthOverFiveGenerationsofAmericans,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscus-sionSeries2024-007.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.007. NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers. HasIntergenerationalProgressStalled?IncomeGrowthOverFiveGenerationsofAmericans KevinCorinthAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,IZA JeffLarrimoreFederalReserveBoard January2024 Abstract WefindthateachofthepastfourgenerationsofAmericanswasbetteroffthanthepreviousone,usingapost-tax,post-transferincomemeasureconstructedannuallyfrom1963-2022basedontheCurrentPopulationSurveyAnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement.Atage36–40,Millennialshadarealmedianhouseholdincomethatwas18percenthigherthanthatofthepreviousgenerationatthesameage.ThisrateofintergenerationalprogresswasslowerthanthatexperiencedbytheSilentGeneration(34percent)andBabyBoomers(27percent),butsimilartothatexperiencedbyGenerationX(16percent).SlowerprogressforGenerationXandMillennialsisduetotheirstalledgrowthinworkhours—holdingworkhoursconstant,theyexperiencedagreaterintergenerationalincreaseinrealmarketincomethanBabyBoomers. IntergenerationalprogressforMillennialsunderage30hasremainedrobustaswell,althoughtheirincomegrowthlargelyresultsfromhigherrelianceontheirparents.Wealsofindthatthehighereducationalcostsincurredbyyoungergenerationsisfaroutweighedbytheirlifetimeincomegains. JELcodes:D31,E24,H24,J3,J62 Keywords:Fullincome;Growth;Generations;Mobility;Millennials TheresultsandopinionsexpressedinthispaperreflecttheviewsoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.Forhelpfulcommentsanddiscussion,wethankRichardBurkhauser,JonathanFisher,MaggieJones,BruceMeyer,ScottWinship,andparticipantsatthe2023NationalTaxAssociationconference. 1.Introduction AdefiningaspectoftheAmericanDreamisthattheeconomicwellbeingofeachgenerationshouldsurpassthatofthepreviousone.Whetherthisconditionholdsforyoungergenerationshasrecentlybeencalledintoquestion.A2022Galluppollfoundthatjust42percentofAmericansexpectthattoday’syouthwillhaveabetterlifethantheirparents—downfrom71percentwhofeltthatwayin1999(Brenan2022).Similarly,headlinesinrecentyearshavecalledMillennials(bornfrom1981–1996)the“unluckiestgenerationinU.S.history”(VanDam2020)andclaimedthat“manyMillennialsareworseoffthantheirparents—afirstinAmericanhistory”(Luhby2020).1Yet,whenaskedabouttheirownfinancialsituationcomparedtotheirparentsatasimilarageintheFederalReserve’sSurveyofHouseholdEconomicsandDecisionmaking(SHED),MillennialandGenerationZadultswerenearlyaslikelyasBabyBoomerstoreportdoingbetterthantheirparentsatthesameage.2Hence,youngadultsappeartobemorepositiveabouttheirownfinancialprogressthanpopularcommentarysuggests. Additionally,recentworkbyTwenge(2023)claimedthatcountertorecentnarratives,intergenerationalincomegrowthformillennialsinyoungadulthoodfarsurpassedtheintergenerationalincomegrowthforeitherGenerationXorBabyBoomers.Gaininganaccurateunderstandingofchangesineconomicwellbeingacrossgenerations,inlightofthesenarratives,isimportantforassessingthestateoftheAmericanDream. Previousresearchhasprovidedimportantinsightsonintergenerationalcomparisonsofwellbeing.Muchofthisresearchcomparestheeconomicwellbeingofadultchildrentotheirparents.3Studiesofabsolutemobilityestimatetheshareofadultswhoseincomesexceedthatoftheirparentsataconstantage,oftencomparingcontemporaryadultstotheirparentswithoutexamininglongerperiodstodocumenttrendsinabsolutemobility(e.g.,Urahnetal.2012).OnerecentexceptionisChettyetal.(2017).Theycombinecross-sectionalsurveydatawithindividualtaxrecords,allowingthemtocalculatetrendsinabsolutemobilityoverlongertime 1ThatMillennialsarethefirstgenerationtounderperformtheirparent’sgenerationisalsothethesisofFilipovic(2020). 2Inthe2022survey,50percentofMillennialadultsand51percentofGenerationZadultsfelttheywerebetterofffinanciallythantheirparentsatthesameage.AmongGenerationXadults,53percentfelttheywerebetteroffandamongBabyBoomers,56percentdid.Ineachofthesegenerationsanadditional21to26percentsaidtheyweredoingaboutthesameastheirparentsfinancially(authors'calculations;FederalReserveBoard2023). 3Otherresearchcomparesmobilityintermsofotheroutcomessuchasoccupations(LongandFerrie2013;Songetal.2020). periods.Whendoingso,theyfindthattheshareofchildrenwhoearnmorethantheirpare