数字贸易是如何重塑全球经济的（英）+

Howdigitaltradeisreshapingtheglobaleconomy Introduction Internationaltradewindshaveshiftedinrecentyears,andanewconcepthasemergedthattheWorldTradeOrganizationcalls“reglobalization.”Thenamereferstoaformofglobaltradethatismorediversified,asbusinessesandcountriesseekabroadernetworkoftradingpartnersthatismorerobusttopoliticalandeconomicshocks. “ Digitaltradeisakeydriverofglobalgrowthtodayandtheinternetistheprimaryinfrastructureunderpinningthistrend. Itprovidesbusinesseswithaccesstocustomersinfarflungmarketsthatstandoutsidetraditionalbilateraltraderelationships. Anybusiness,anywhere,cannowconceivablyselltocustomersinnearlyeverycorneroftheglobe.Increasingly,businessesaretakingadvantageofthispotential. Tovalidatethishypothesisandbetterunderstandthenatureofthisshift,wetookacloselookatourdigitalexportsdataandsurveyed9keyglobalmarkets:Australia,France,Germany,Ireland,Japan,Mexico,Singapore,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates. Weinterviewedthousandsofbusinesses,consumers,andanalyzeddatafromtheStripenetwork.Wewantedtounderstandwhichkindsofbusinessesaremostlikelytobeexpandingintonewglobalmarkets,whichmarketsthey’rechoosing,andwhatkindsofopportunitiesandchallengesthey’reencounteringalongtheway. Thisreportpresentsourkeyfindings,indicatingthatreglobalizationisbeingpoweredbytheriseofdigitalexports:thecross-bordersaleofdigitalservicesandphysicalgoodsviadigitalchannels.Itfindsunexpectedoptimismfrombusinessesandconsumersabouttheprospectsoftheglobalizedeconomy.Despitetheincreasedcomplexitythatbusinessesneedtonavigate,50%ofbusinessesthinkitiseasiertodaytorunaninternationalbusinessthanitwasfiveyearsago,and66%plantoexpandintoothercountriesinthenexttwoyears.Eighty-nine percentattributethewideravailabilityoftechnologyandtoolsaskeytoaneasytransitiontointernationalexpansion.Enterprisesarepursuingreglobalization,butsoarestartupsandsoleproprietorcompanies.Andwhileit’slessofasurprisethatthesoftwareindustryisreglobalizing,maybeit’smoreofonethattheeducationindustryistoo. Abetterpathforwardiswhatwearecalling‘re-globalization’:deeper,moredeconcentratedmarkets,achievedbybringingmorepeopleandplacesfromthemarginsoftheglobaleconomytothemainstream. Director-GeneralNgoziOkonjo-Iweala WorldTradeOrganization Howdigitaltradeisreshapingtheglobaleconomy2 Aboutthisreport Thisreportprovidesanoverviewoftheopportunitythattheinternetisenablingforallbusinessesacrosstheworldtomaximizesalesthroughcross-borderdigitalexports. BasedontransactiondataonStripe,aswellasbusinessandconsumersentimentsurveys,thereportidentifiesandelaboratesonemergingtrendsintheglobaldigitaleconomy,includinghowreglobalizationisbeingpoweredbydigitalexports.Itisbasedonthreemainsourcesofdata: •BusinesssentimentdatafromaB2BInternationalstudyconductedinJune2023ofover 1,700businessleadersbasedinAustralia,France,Germany,Ireland,Japan,Mexico,Singapore,theUK,andtheUS. •ConsumersentimentdatafromaYouGovstudyconductedinJune2023of11,500consumersacrossAustralia,France,Germany,Ireland,Japan,Mexico,Singapore,theUK,andtheUS. •TransactiondataaggregatedfromtheStripeplatformofpaymentflowsfromStripeusersinAustralia,France,Germany,Ireland,Japan,Mexico,Singapore,theUK,andtheUSthatsellproductsorservicestocustomersinternationally.ThedatawascollectedinApril2023,andcoverstheperiodfromJanuary1,2021toDecember31,2022. Inthisreport,theterm“digitalexports”referstothecross-bordersaleofdigitalproductsandservices,aswellasphysicalgoods,viadigitalchannels.Thisisdefinedasgoodsandservices whichare“digitallyordered”and“digitallypaidfor,”butcouldbedeliveredorservicedeitherphysicallyordigitally. Inthecontextofthisreport,thebusinesssentimentdataandthetransactiondataaggregatedfromtheStripeplatformshouldbetreatedasindicativeandnotdirectlycomparabletonationaltradedataasitisbasedondifferentcriteria.ThebusinesssentimentsurveyandthetransactiondataaggregatedfromtheStripeplatformareextrapolatedmostlyfromStripeusers,anddonotfullyrepresentthebroaderglobaleconomy. Howdigitaltradeisreshapingtheglobaleconomy3 KeyTakeaways Thisreportexploreshowdigitalexportsaretransformingtheglobaleconomyinthreecoreareas: 1.Creatingunexpectedoptimismfrombusinessesandconsumersabouttheprospectsoftheglobalizedeconomy: Despiteachallengingshort-termclimate,bothbusinessesandconsumersareoptimisticaboutincreasinghowmuchtheybuyandsellacrossborders: •Sixty-sixpercentofbusinessesareplanningtoexpandintoothercountrieswithinthenexttwoyears. •Sixty-eightpercentofconsumersareopentothecross-borderpurchaseofphysicalgoods,and59%areopentobuyingdigitalservices.Thesenumbersareevenhigherforyoungerpeople,with76%of18–34yearoldsopentobuyingphysicalgoods,and74%opentobuyingdigitalservices •Eighty-onepercentofbusinessesexpecttobeabletoincreasetheirinternationalsalesoverthenextfiveyears:25%areforecastingsalesgrowthofmorethan50%,while17%expectmorethan75%growth. •Fiftypercentofbusinessesthinkitiseasiertodaytorunaninternationalbusinessthanitwasfiveyearsago.Only22%findithardertodoso. 2.Creatingmorediversifiedinternationaltraderoutes: Economicinfrastructurefortheinternetmeansthat