高等教育保险导航：需求与逆向选择的实验研究

FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries FederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print) ISSN2767-3898(Online) NavigatingHigherEducationInsurance:AnExperimentalStudyonDemandandAdverseSelection SidhyaBalakrishnan,EricBettinger,MichaelS.Kofoed,DubravkaRitter,DouglasA.Webber,EgeAksu,andJonathanS.Hartley 2024-024 Pleasecitethispaperas: Balakrishnan,Sidhya,EricBettinger,MichaelS.Kofoed,DubravkaRitter,DouglasA.Web-ber,EgeAksu,andJonathanS.Hartley(2024).“NavigatingHigherEducationInsurance:AnExperimentalStudyonDemandandAdverseSelection,”FinanceandEconomicsDis-cussionSeries2024-024.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.024. NOTE:StaffworkingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers. NavigatingHigherEducationInsurance:AnExperimentalStudyonDemandandAdverseSelection* SidhyaBalakrishnan†,EricBettinger‡,MichaelS.Kofoed§,DubravkaRitter¶DouglasA.Webber|,|EgeAksu*,*andJonathanS.Hartley†† February21,2024 Abstract Weconductasurvey-basedexperimentwith2,776studentsatanon-profituniversitytoanalyzein-comeinsurancedemandineducationfinancing.Weofferedstudentsahypotheticalchoice:eitherafederalloanwithincome-drivenrepaymentoranincome-shareagreement(ISA),withrandomizedfram-ingofdownsideprotections.EmphasizingincomeinsuranceincreasedISAuptakeby43%.Weobservethatstudentsareresponsivetochangesincontracttermsandpossiblestudentloancancellation,whichisevidenceofpreferenceadjustmentoradverseselection.Ourresultsindicatethatframingspecifictermscanincreasedemandforhighereducationinsurancetopotentiallyaddressriskforstudentswithvaryingoutcomes. *TheauthorsappreciatethehelpfulcommentsandfeedbackofNeilBhutta,JuliaCheney,BarryCynamon,AndrewHertzberg,JeromeHodges,CarolineHoxby,RajeevDarolia,RobertHunt,JeffLarrimore,JosephMarchand,LoisMiller,KevinMumford,MarshallSteinbaum,andJoshuaPrice.WearealsogratefulforparticipantsatseminarandconferencepresentationsincludingtheAmericanEconomicAssociation,AppalachianStateUniversity,AssociationforEducationFinanceandPolicy,AssociationforPolicyAnalysisandManagement,BrighamYoungUniversity,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch(EconomicsofEducation),ProvidenceCollege,SouthernEconomicAssociation,UnitedStatesAirForceAcademy,andUniversityofTennessee,Knoxville. †SidhyaBalakrishnanisthedirectorofresearchattheJainFamilyInstitute,email:sidhya.balakrishnan@jainfamilyinstitute.org ‡EricBettingeristheConleyDeAngelisFamilyProfessorofEducationatStanfordUniversityandaresearchassociateatNBER,email:ebettinger@stanford.edu. §MichaelS.KofoedisanassistantprofessorofeconomicsattheUniversityofTennessee,KnoxvilleandResearchFellowatIZA,andcorrespondingauthor:mkofoed1@utk.edu ¶DubravkaRitterisasenioradvisorandresearchfellowattheConsumerFinanceInstitute,FederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia,email:dubravka.ritter@phil.frb.org.ThisPhiladelphiaFedworkingpaperrepresentspreliminaryresearchthatisbeingcirculatedfordiscussionpurposes.TheviewsexpressedinthesepapersaresolelythoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiaortheFederalReserveSystem.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthors.Nostatementshereshouldbetreatedaslegaladvice. ||DouglasA.WebberisasenioreconomistattheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve,email:douglas.a.webber@frb.gov.TheanalysisandconclusionsinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorandshouldnotbeinterpretedasreflectingtheviewsoftheBoardofGovernorsortheFederalReserveSystem. **EgeAksuisaPhDcandidateatCUNYGraduateCenterandfellowattheJainFamilyInstitute,email:ege.aksu@jainfamilyinstitute.org ††JonathanS.HartleyisaPhDcandidateatStanfordUniversity,email:hartleyj@stanford.edu 1Introduction Insuranceproductsareimportanttoolsemployedbyindividualstohedgerisksintheirfinanciallives.Insur-ancemarketsallowindividualstopoolriskagainstunexpected,negativeoutcomesandarewelldevelopedinmanycontexts,likehealthcareorrealestate.1However,risk-hedgingopportunitiesarenotreadilyavailableinpost-secondaryeducation,eventhoughcollegeisanincreasinglyuncertaininvestment(Webber,2022)madeonlyonceinalifetime.Whilereturnstocollegearepositiveonaverage(LovenheimandSmith,2022),theirdistributionismorenuanced(Webber,2016,BroadyandHershbein,2020).Financialout-comesforstudents,forexample,varyacrossinstitutiontypes(e.g.selectivevs.non-selective;four-yearvs.two-year),fieldsofstudy(e.g.educationvs.engineeringvs.economics),andmacroeconomicconditionsupongraduation(Rothstein,2023).Perhapsmoreimportantly,returnsvarywithineachofthesesegmentsgivenunobservablestudentskill–whichispotentiallydifficultforthestudentand/ortheinstitutiontoiden-tify–anduncertainlabormarketconditions.Particularlyforyoungerstudentsandthoseenteringlongerd