中东和北非的冲突与债务（英）

MENAECONOMICUPDATE APRIL2024 CONFLICTANDDEBTINTHEMIDDLEEASTANDNORTHAFRICA RobertaGatti,FedericoBennett,HodaAssem,RanaLotfi,GianlucaMele,IliasSuvanov,AsifM.Islam WORLDBANKGROUP WORLDBANKMIDDLEEASTANDNORTHAFRICAREGION MENAECONOMICUPDATEAPRIL2024 ConflictandDebtintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSomerightsreserved 123427262524 ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. Nothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesof TheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:Gatti,Roberta,FedericoBennett,HodaAssem,RanaLotfi,GianlucaMele,IliasSuvanov,AsifM.Islam.2024.ConflictandDebtintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.MiddleEastandNorthAfricaEconomicUpdate(April),Washington,DC:WorldBank.DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-2098-4.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGO. Translations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation. Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank. Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-2098-4DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-2098-4 Coverphoto[orimage]:©Azat1976/Shutterstock.com.UsedwiththepermissionofAzat1976/Shutterstock.com.Furtherpermissionrequiredforreuse. Coverdesign:RajeshSharma Contents Acknowledgementsiv Abbreviationsv ChapterIIntroductionandOverviewofFindings�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1 ThetaleoftwoMENAsends2 TheimpactoftheconflictintheMiddleEast2 Increasinglyuncertaintimes2 Burgeoningdebtinoil-importingMENAeconomies3 Growingoutofdebtandinflatingdebtaway3 Borrowingagainstanuncertainfuture4 ChapterIIRegionalMacroeconomicOutlook������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 Worldeconomiccontext:Aglobalgrowthslowdown5 The‘taleoftwoMENAS’endswiththereturnoflowgrowth7 Shiftingexpectationswhenshockshit12 Whenforecastersdisagree:Towhomdoyoulisten?13 ChapterIIIEconomicImpactsoftheConflictintheMiddleEast�������������������������������������������������������������������16 ImpactsontheWestBankandGaza:Aneconomyonthebrink16 Regionalimpacts:Heterogeneousgeographicallyandcontingentontheevolutionoftheconflict19 ChannelsofImpact21 ChapterIVTheEvolutionofDebtinMENA��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������29 MENA’scapacitytopayitspublicdebt:TheevolutionofpublicdebtrelativetoGDP29 Accountingforchangesindebt-to-GDPratios31 Thepushandpullofchangesindebt:Theroleofinflationandgrowth40 Fromaccountingtoeconomics:Assessingchangesindebt-to-GDPratiosduetointeractionsamong inflation,growth,anddebt45 ChapterVPolicyRecommendationsandConclusions����������������������������������������������������������������������������������49 References51 AppendixIDebtStatistics53