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Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024

2024-04-02IMF王***

March2024 IMFPOLICYPAPER MACROECONOMICDEVELOPMENTSANDPROSPECTSFORLOW-INCOMECOUNTRIES—2024 IMFstaffregularlyproducespapersproposingnewIMFpolicies,exploringoptionsforreform,orreviewingexistingIMFpoliciesandoperations.Thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsMarch29,2024,considerationofthestaffreport. TheStaffReport,preparedbyIMFstaffandcompletedonFebruary22,2024,fortheExecutiveBoard’sconsiderationonMarch29,2024. AStaffSupplement. TheIMF’stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities’policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments. ElectroniccopiesofIMFPolicyPapersareavailabletothepublicfrom http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C. ©2024InternationalMonetaryFund PR24/95 IMFExecutiveBoardDiscussesMacroeconomicDevelopmentsandProspectsinLow-IncomeCountries FORIMMEDIATERELEASE Washington,DC–April2,2024:OnMarch29,2024,theExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)discussedtheIMFstaffpaperonmacroeconomicdevelopmentsandprospectsinlow-incomecountries(LICs)[link],whichincludesin-depthanalysisofstrategiesforstrengtheningsocialsafetynets(SSN)inLICs.ThepaperdefinesLICsasthose69countrieseligibleforthePovertyReductionandGrowthTrustfacilities.1 TheeconomicscarringoftheCOVID-19pandemic,Russia’swarinUkraineandensuinggeopoliticaltensions,andthetighteningoffinancialconditionsfollowingstronginflationarypressureshavehitLICsthehardestinrecentyears. LICs'prospectsarefinallyslowlyimproving,helpedbyabetterglobaloutlook,aseconomicgrowthaccelerates,inflationdecreases,andfinancialconditionsease.However,significantuncertaintiesandadverserisksremaininthecontextofamoreshock-proneworld.Liquidityconditionsremaintightandtheburdenofhighdebtservicepaymentslimitsthespacefordevelopmentspending. However,thereissignificantheterogeneityamongstLICs.Thepoorestcountrieshavebeenhithardestbythepandemicandhaveexperiencedthestrongestscarringintermsofoutputloss.Fragileandconflictaffectedstates(FCS)haveseentheirrecoveryhinderedbyweakinstitutionsandinherentfragilities.ThemanyLICswhoseexportshavebeenconcentratedinafewproducts,havehadweakerandmorevolatileperformance.Fuelexporters,inparticular,havemissedthechancetocapitalizeontheoilwindfallandwillnowhavetoconsolidateinalessfavorableenvironment.Onthecontrary,diversifiedexportersandfrontiermarketshaveshownmoreresiliencetoshocks.Finally,manySmallDevelopingStateswhoareoftentourism-dependent,haverecoveredcomparativelybetterbutneedtoreducehighdebtlevelsandallocatepartoftheirrevenuestocriticalclimatechangeadaptationinvestments. ThereportpointstothefactthatdecisiveeffortsareneededtoaccelerateincomeconvergencewithmoreadvancedeconomiesandmakeprogresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Thisinvolvesboostinggrowth,overcomingsetbacksinpovertyreductiontriggeredbytheCOVID-19pandemic,reversingnegativetrendsinfoodsecurityandwomen’semployment,andenhancingresiliencetofutureshocks. Addressingthesechallengesrequiresdecisivedomesticactionspairedwithstrongexternalsupport.Onthedomesticfront,prudentfiscalandmonetarypolicieswouldbekeytomaintainmacroeconomicstability.Theauthoritiesshouldalsofocusonacceleratingdomesticrevenuemobilizationandprioritizingpublicspendingtocreateadditionalspaceforcriticaldevelopmentandsocialspending.Inthiscontext,efficientallocationandexpansionofsocialsafetynetplaysacrucialroleinalleviatingpovertyandbuildingbuffersagainstexternalshocks.Thiscallsforare-directionofSSNspendingfromthebetter-offtothepoorestsegments. Strengtheningpublicfinancialmanagement,governanceandtransparencywouldpromote 1ThelistcanbefoundinAnnexIofthereport. 2 accountabilityandhelpbuildpoliticalsupportbuy-inforreforms,includingambitiousstructuralreformsthatsupportinclusivegrowth. Atthesametime,allpartnersshouldstepupexternalsupport,includingnotjustfinancingbutalsopolicyadviceandtechnicalassistance.Inparticular,grantsandhighlyconcessionalfinancingwillbecrucialtosupportdevelopmenteffortsofpoorercountries,whileeffortstocatalyzeprivatefinancingshouldbeenhanced,inparticularinfrontiermarkets.Improvedcreditorcooperationwouldbeimportanttoensuretimelydebttreatmentwhereneeded.TheFundiscontinuingtoplayitspart:lendingmorethantripledsincethepandemic,thebulkofitonconcessionalterms,andcontinuingtoadaptitssupporttorespondtochangingLICneeds. ExecutiveBoardAssessment2 ExecutiveDirectorswelcomedthetimelyopportunitytodiscussrecentmacroeconomicdevelopmentsandprospectsinlowincomecountries(LICs).Theybroadlyagreedwiththestaff’sassessmentandtheidentifiedpolicypriorities,includingstrengtheningsocialsafetynets(SSN). Directorswelcomedthatafterseveralchallengingyearsmarkedbythepandemic,Russia’swarinUkraine,andthetighteningofinternationalfinancialconditions,themacroeconomicoutlookforLICsisgraduallyimprovingasgrowthpicksup,inflationsubsides,andinternationalfinancialconditionsease.However,risksforLICsaretiltedtothedownsideamidpersistentscarring,liquiditychalle

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Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024

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