乌克兰战争的消耗、僵局和未来（英）

N D T H E I T I O N , H E W A R BEYOATTROFT POLICY COUNSTALEINUK GustavGresselJanuary2024 SU M M A R Y Ruis ssi set a an to dw Uk in. ra i ne ar ee n gage din a war Ukrainecanonlyachieveitswaraimsicannotregainitslostterritory. WesternsuppliesandeffortsatdefenceUkrainewiththereplacementarmamentsswitchtomanoeuvrewarfare. TheWestandEuropeansinparticularnecreateeconomiesofscaletoradicallysarmouredfightingvehicles,andmore. Onl y ift hey caref ully abso r b the t ypes of great pow erco n f thelesson rsotnc tean ttiuorny Thewarofattrition TheRussianwaragainstUkrainehasbecenormouscostsonbothsides,butovert industrialbasecannotcompensateforRuequipmentfasterthantheWestis,asof least,awarofattritionimpliesaRussi Thisoutcomeisfarfrominevitable.Butwithoutstepped-upWesternassistance.Utasks.Firstly,theyneedtodramaticallyequipment.Therecanbenovictoryina equipmentandcurrentlevelsofWesternneedtoprovidetheUkrainianarmywithreturnmanoeuvretothebattlefield.Ukr canbetonoUkrainiansuccesswithouta ThispaperdescribeswhatUkrainesEurowarofattritionandeventuallyrestoremthewar.Thesearenoteasytasksthey levelofsustainedspending.Buttheyar WhyUkraineneedsto Warfightingdoesnothappeninapolitictheyseektofulfilapoliticalaim.To oneneedstolookatthecountryseconocontextinwhichmilitaryoperationsare Ukrainiansfromthepresidenttothepwar.Theyhavebeenstrugglingfortheirwanttosecureitforever.Theydonotstheissueundecided.Noquasi-state,no provideRussiawithafootholdinUkrain theIlkoKucherivDemocraticInAiutigautsitve2s0showedthat90.4percentofUkrainians unacceptable,whileonly4.7percentwodefinitivelydefeatRussianimperialism warasasuccessthatcanberepeatedor thatourchildrendonothavetofightth UkrainecannotachievethisgoalwithoutoccupationforcesfromUkrainiansoil.Haction.ThevarioussetbacksthattheUknecessityofoffensiveactionstoachiev Ukrainianshavealsonotwrittenoffthefirstphaseofthewar,theRussianoccuindividualswhowereobviouslypro-Ukrapersonnel,militaryvolunteers,veterans watchdogorganisations.No[ w1t],hea ycc toarrdgi entga whoisnotobviouslypro-Russian,define passportandpubliclyshTo hwon selo tyaarlgt eytetdosR detention,torture,separationoffamilie parents), .aTndhe exn eucmubteironofpeopleinurgen wasatthebeginningoftheRussianoccu Inthespringof2023,thisconcernfortgovernmentcouldnot,fromapoliticalsmoreammunition,furthertrainthetroopthoseconsiderationsdidmeanthattheogovernmenthadhoped.AndthatlackofspresidentVolodymyrZelensky.Accordingsupporters,particularlyscepticalRepub comeucplewaaifnrtedhasasi tbrl aeteg [y2]forvictory. Ukrainianstrategyin2023triedtoachiactionpossible,reflectingUkrainesma Ukrainianproifmfia croiyfalgtsoh,aelt 2h0e 23offensivewas theSeaofAzov,cutoffRussiaslandlinpeninsulaundersiegethroughdroneand thatCrimeaisthecentreofgravityofRshouldforceRussianpresidentVladimir Kyiv.Zelenskyhintedatthisplanwhen, demilitCarriimseiangthroughdiplomaticmeans. So,theUkrainiangovernmentandsociety clearthattheyhavethemeanstosucceecoalitionsupportingUkraine.AfewEuro tocomprehensRiuvsesliya d(et foeai tnclude,ifpossibl regime)sothatRussianolUonni gti enrdgdFpKoromas,n,ecsea andmostotherEuropeancountrieswant defeatedandUkrainerestoredtoitsinteexistingterritorialandpoliticalorder. precise,theWhiteHouseandthloe s.iCnThgha enycel hopethatastalemvaictetwoor uyr lad tfaocr tciecaPlutUi knratoi strategyneagnodt.i eaUntnti leoirnkseKyiv,theydonotw predominantly(butnotexclusively)for ThisdisunityinaimsandstrategyhasaHowlongthewarissupposedtolast?Ho questionswillinpartdeterminethedefeplanningofmilitaryandeconomicsupporareindispute. Themilitarysituation Thisconfusionovergoalsrestontopof 2023summeroffensivedidnotliveupto mili htardy hloipbe Kdrah teoersonandZaporizhiaprov whichwouldhaveseveredtheRussiangrshortenedthefrontlineUkrainianforceoffensivewouldhaveregainedcontrolof ZaporizhianuclearpowerplantandtheNenergysituationnextwinter.Intheend,Ukrainianoffensivedidnotapproachthecounter-offensiveprogressedsomewhata failedtofulfilthegoalsoftheoffensi ThissetbackdoesnotchangeUkrainesfachieveitsgoalsthroughoffensivemili lessonsfromthisoffensivetoimprovei Inlaunchingthisoffensive,theUkraini fortificationsRussiahadbuiltsincetheeffectiveasthetroopsthatmananddef early2023,thequestionwaswhetherthefortifications.TheRussianmilitaryinvedefendthefortificationsandcounter-attcoordinatingtheseeffortsrelativelywel DuringRussiaswinteroffensive,theRucompany-sizeddetachments(thatis,abouachievelimitedadvances,buttheRussiabattalion-orbrigade-levelassaults(abovareioxupslanfaotriotnhsisdeficiency,includingl insufficientsignallingequipmentandim WhenonthedefensiveduringtheUkrain battalcionu-nstiezrte-hdaat ttawc ekrs ewellsynchronised neighbouringbattalions,suggestinghighinvestedheavilyinspecialcommandandequipmenttoachievethislevelofcoord BeyondimprovedRussiancommandandcohavemadeUkrainianoffensiveactionswandusuallyunsuccessful. Thefirstistheabilityofforcesonthe firepositions.Ukrainianspioneeredthiscontrolsoftwaretocoordinateartillery rapidlyconcentratefireonaspecifictaRussiancounter-batteryfireifoneofth