印度宏观经济表现英

85thissue EconomyWatch MonitoringIndia’s macro-fiscalperformance November2023 ENTER Home Foreword:BudgetingforFY25:fromInterimtoMainBudget 1Growth:PMIindicatedaneasingofgrowthinmanufacturingandservicesinOctober2023 2Inflation:CPIinflationeasedtoafour-monthlowof4.9%inOctober2023 3Fiscal:GoI’scapitalexpendituregrowthstoodat43.1%during1HFY24 4Comparativetrends:IMFprojectedIndia’sgovernmentdebt-GDPratioat82%inFY24 5Infocus:EconomicandfiscaloutlookforFY25’sInterimBudget 6Moneyandfinance:bankcreditgrewby15.3%inSeptember2023 7TradeandCAB:merchandiseexportsandimportsgrowthturnedpositiveinOctober2023 8Globalgrowth:IMFprojectedglobalgrowthat3%in2023and2.9%in2024 9IndexofAggregateDemand(IAD):grewby12.2%inSeptember2023 10Capturingmacro-fiscaltrends:dataappendix 4 6 7 8 10 11 17 19 20 21 22 Contents PreparedbyMacro-fiscalUnit,TaxandEconomicPolicyGroup,EYIndia D.K.Srivastava,ChiefPolicyAdvisor,EY:dk.srivastava@in.ey.comMuralikrishnaBharadwaj,SeniorManager,EY:muralikrishna.b@in.ey.comTarrungKapur,SeniorManager,EY:tarrung.kapur@in.ey.com RaginiTrehan,SeniorManager,EY:ragini.trehan@in.ey.com Highlights 1.InOctober2023,bothmanufacturingandservicesPMIremainedathighlevelsof55.5and58.5respectively,althoughtheirratesofexpansiondecelerated. 2.Ledbyabroad-basedimprovementintheoutputofkeysub-industries,IIPgrowthincreasedto7.4%in2QFY24from4.8%in1QFY24. 3.CPIinflationmoderatedto4.9%inOctober2023from5.0%inSeptember2023,inchingclosertotheRBI’s4%target.CoreCPIinflationeasedforthefourthsuccessivemonthto4.3%inOctober2023. 4.TheWPIreflectedacontractioninpricesatthewholesalelevelfortheseventhsuccessivemonthat(-)0.5%inOctober2023ascomparedto(-)0.3%inSeptember2023,ledbyfavorablebaseeffects. 5.During1HFY24,GoI’sgrosstaxrevenues(GTR)showedagrowthof16.3%,withgrowthindirecttaxesat25.4%andthatinindirecttaxesat6.5%. 6.GoI’stotalexpendituregrewby16.2%during1HFY24,withgrowthincapitalexpenditureat43.1%andthatinrevenueexpenditureat10%. 7.During1HFY24,GoI’sfiscalandrevenuedeficits,asaproportionoftheirannualBE,stoodat39.3%and26.6%,respectively. 8.Growthingrossbankcreditincreasedtoathree-monthhighof15.3%inSeptember2023from14.9%inAugust2023. 9.Growthinmerchandiseexportsandimportsturnedpositiveat6.2%and12.3%inOctober2023aftershowingacontractionfortensuccessivemonths,partlyduetofavorablebaseeffect. 10.MerchandisetradedeficitsurgedtoanunprecedentedhighofUS$31.5billioninOctober2023fromafive-monthlowofUS$19.4billioninSeptember2023. 11.NetFDIsturnedpositiveinSeptember2023withinflowsamountingtoUS$1.5billionascomparedtooutflowsofUS$2.8billioninAugust2023. 12.Froma13-monthhighlevelofUS$92.2/bbl.inSeptember2023,globalcrudepricemoderatedtoUS$89.1/bbl.inOctober2023asglobalsupplyconcernseasedwithanincreaseintheOPECoutput.However,theongoinggeopoliticalconflictintheMiddleEastposessignificantupsideriskstoglobalcrudepricesinthenearterm. EconomyWatch:November2023|3 13.TheIMFhasprojectedglobalgrowthat3%in2023,withIndia’sFY24growthforecastedat6.3%. Home Foreword BudgetingforFY25:frominterimtomainbudget TheuniongovernmentwillpresentanInterimBudgetforFY25on1February2024.ThemainBudgetwouldbepresentedafterthegeneralelectionsinMay2024.In2019,whenasimilarsituationhadarisen,themainBudgetwaspresentedinthefirstweekofJuly.TheInterimBudget,alsocalledaVoteonAccount,enablesundertakingofexpendituresatthebeginningofthenextfiscalyearuntilthemainBudgetispresented.Itisnotusedfortheinitiationofanymajorpolicychanges.TheInterimBudgetthereforeisofinteresttotheextentasitprovidesanassessmentoftheeconomyanditsfiscalhealth.Onekeyvariableofinterestwouldbetheachievedimprovementinindicatorsoffiscalimbalance,suchasfiscalandrevenuedeficitsandgovernmentdebtrelativetoGDPaftertheirsharpdeparturesintheCOVID-affectedyearofFY21.Usingthisassessmentandconsideringmoreup-to-dateinformation,themainBudgetwillprovideanoccasiontoinitiatepolicyreformsinalonger-termperspective. AspertheNationalStatisticalOrganization(NSO),realandnominalGDPgrowthin1QFY24turnedouttobe7.8%and8%respectively.TheGVAdataindicatedthatmanufacturinggrowthremainedrelativelylowat4.7%in1QFY24,partlyreflectingtheeffectoftheglobaleconomicslowdown.Withinservices,althoughthequarterlyrealgrowth(y-o-y)ofthetrade,hotels,transport,communication,andstoragesectorwas9.2%in1QFY24,itsmagnitude(in2011-12prices)waslowerby2%ascomparedtothecorrespondingmagnitudeinthefirstquarterofthepre-COVIDyearofFY20.ThispatternhasbeenreplicatedforthefirstquarterofFY22,FY23andFY24.Thismightindicatethatthisemployment-intensivesectorhasnotyetfullyrecoveredfromtheCOVIDshockandcontinuestobevulnerabletosupplysidedisruptions. Theprospectsfor2QFY24growthappeartobeatparifnotbetter,comparedtotheRBI’sestimateof6.5%.TheRBIGovernor,inarecentstatement1,showedconfidencethatthisexpectationwouldbemetifnotexceeded.Recentmonthshaveseenbuoyanthighfrequencyindicators,justifyingthisoptimism.IIPandcoreIIPgrowthaveraged7.4%and9.7%respectivelyin2QFY24,grossGSTcollectionsaveragedINR1.62lakhcrore,PMImanufacturingandservicesshowedhighlevelsatanaverageof57.9and61.1respectively,bankcreditgrowthremainedst