The changing role of hydropower: Challenges and opportunities

THE CHANGINGROLEOF HYDROPOWER CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIES ©IRENA2023 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. Citation:IRENA(2023),Thechangingroleofhydropower:Challengesandopportunities,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. ISBN:978-92-9260-522-3 AboutIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture,andservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergyinthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity. Acknowledgements Thisreportbenefittedfromtheinputandcommentsofexperts,includingJean-PhilippeBernier(NaturalResourcesCanada),RebeccaEllis(InternationalHydropowerAssociation),Jean-ChristopheFueeg(SwissFederalOfficeofEnergy),PravinKarki(WorldBank),FranciscoKuljevanandMarkChristian(ElectricPowerResearchInstitute),PaulKomor(UniversityofColoradoatBoulder),LauraLizano(MinistryofEnvironmentandEnergyofCostaRica),BaysaNaran(ClimatePolicyInstitute)andYuetaoXie(ChinaRenewableEnergyEngineeringInstitute). ValuableinputwasalsoprovidedbyIRENAcolleagues,includingDolfGielen(ex-IRENA),SoniaAl-Zoghoul,EmanueleBianco,UteCollier,ArietaGonelevu,PabloRalón,BinuParthan,CostanzaStrinati(ex-IRENA)andEmanueleTaibi(ex-IRENA). ThisreportwasauthoredbyCarlosRuizunderthedirectionofRolandRoesch(ActingDirector,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre). Pleasesendrequestsforfurtherinformationorcommentstopublications@irena.org.Thisreportcanbedownloadedfromwww.irena.org/publications Disclaimer Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein. TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. Coverphoto:Munimara©Shutterstock CONTENTS Figures,tablesandboxes5 Abbreviations7 KEYMESSAGES8 01INTRODUCTION10 02HYDROPOWERTODAY11 2.1Hydropowertechnologies11 2.2Hydropowerservicesandbenefits13 2.3Potential14 2.4Currentdeployment17 2.5Costsandinvestmenttrends20 03PRESENTCHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIES25 3.1Ageingfleet25 3.2Changingpowersystems30 3.3Investmentneeds33 04 HYDROPOWERFORTHEFUTURE36 4.1Sustainability36 4.2Innovationandflexibility39 4.3Regulationandmarkets44 4.4Co-operation47 REFERENCES49 APPENDIXAListofcountries,areasandregions showninthefigures55 APPENDIXBRegionalfigures57 Africa57 Asia60 CentralAmericaandtheCaribbean63 Eurasia66 Europe69 MiddleEast72 NorthAmerica75 Oceania78 SouthAmerica81 Figures FIGURE1Genericreservoirhydropowerplant12 FIGURE2Energystoragepotentialbyregion16 FIGURE3Hydropowerinstalledcapacitybyyear,2000-202117 FIGURE4Hydropowerinstalledcapacitybyregion,202118 FIGURE5Globalhydropowerelectricitygeneration,2000-201919 FIGURE6Hydropowerprojectpipeline,2022-203720 FIGURE7Hydropower’stotalinstalledcosts,globalweightedaverage, 2010-2021.........................................................21 FIGURE8Levelisedcostofelectricityforutility-scalerenewable powergeneration,globalweightedaverage,2010-202122 FIGURE9Annualfinancialcommitmentsinrenewableenergybytechnology, 2013-2018.........................................................23 FIGURE10Annualfinancialcommitmentsinhydropower,2013-201824 FIGURE11Globalhydropowercapacitybyyearofcommissioning26 FIGURE12Breakdownofhydropowerfleetagebyregion27 FIGURE13Necessaryhydropowercapacityadditionsby205029 FIGURE14Comparisonofrenewableandnon-renewablenetcapacityadditions, 2001-2020.........................................................30 FIGURE15NetdemandcurveforaspringdayinCaliforniain202031 FIGURE16RelativeoperationaldamagecontributionstoaFrancisturbine32 FIGUREB.1HydropowercapacityandgenerationinAfrica,2000-202157 FIGUREB.2HydropowerinstalledcapacityinAfrica,202158 FIGUREB.3Hydropowerprojectpipeline