The Exane BNP Paribas-Arthur D. Little joint report on European mobile operators suggests that mobile internet revenue growth could stabilize operators’ top lines from late 2010, thanks to the accelerated adoption of new data services, particularly mobile internet access on smartphones. However, smartphone subsidies will put pressure on EBITDA margins in 2010-2011, and operators need to encourage a more balanced smartphone market to protect their margins. The report also suggests that the capex implications of the growth in mobile data traffic will vary from country to country, but HSPA technologies and traffic offload to fixed-line networks should help keep capex under control. The report concludes that network sharing will accelerate, and the leader-takes-all theory is not a viable strategy.
