中国12月PMI点评

ChinaDecemberPMICommentary 中国12月PMI点评 LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 2024/01/01 December November October September ManufacturingPMI 49.0 49.4 49.5 50.2 Non-manufacturingPMI 50.4 50.2 50.6 51.7 增发国债部分落地推动建筑业显著改善。12月PMI数据显示制造业继续走弱，服务业偏弱，但建筑业显著改善。万亿国债第一批资金2379亿元可能已经部分落地到项目中，推动12月建筑业改善。第二批国债资金5646亿元近日已经下达。预计2024年一季度建筑业继续改善，带动制造业与服务业修复。 TheconstructionindustryimprovedinDecemberas1trilliontreasurybondhaspartlyinvestedinprojects. DecemberPMIdatashowsthatthemanufacturingindustrycontinuestoweaken,theserviceindustryremainsweak,buttheconstructionindustryhassignificantlyimproved. Thefirstbatchof237.9billionyuanof1trilliontreasurybondmayhavebeenpartiallyinvestedinprojects,promotingtheimprovementoftheconstructionindustryinDecember.Thesecondbatchof564.6billionyuanhasbeenreleasedrecently.Itisexpectedthattheconstructionindustrywillcontinuetoimprovein2024Q1,drivingtherecoveryofthemanufacturingandserviceindustries. ChinaManufacturingPMI ManufacturingPMINewOrderIndex 58ProductionIndex 5670 5465 5260 50 55 48 4650 4445 4240 Non-manufacturingPMIServiceIndustryPMIConstructionIndustryPMI Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及 数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。