油脂日报：库存下滑，油脂持续震荡

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2405合约7186元/吨，环比上涨46元，涨幅0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2405合约7616元/吨，环比上涨24元，涨幅0.32%；昨日收盘菜油2405合约8074元/吨，环比下跌2元，跌幅0.02%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格7189元/吨，环比上涨55元，涨幅0.77%，现货基差P05+3，环比下跌10元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8167元/吨，环比上涨11元/吨，涨幅0.13%，现货基差Y05+551，环比下跌13元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：上周油厂开机率大幅下降，大豆压榨量继续偏低，豆油供应减少，库存结束五连增转为降库。数据显示，截止到2023年第51周末，国内豆油库存量为115.8万吨，较上周的118.5万吨减少2.7万吨，环比下降2.26%;合同量为101.8万吨，较上周的110.9万吨减少9.1万吨，环比下降8.17%。其中：沿海库存量为103.2万吨，较上周的104.5万吨减少1.3万吨，环比下降1.30%；合同量为100.4万吨，较上周的109.1万吨减少8.7万吨，环比下降7.94%。阿根廷豆油（1月船期）C&F价格910美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调13美元/吨；阿根廷豆油（3月船期）C&F价格910美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调13美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（1月船期）C&F价格1100美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油（3月船期）C&F价格1120元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 昨日三大油脂价格持续震荡，节日备货启动在即，给予市场一定支撑，三大油脂延续震荡格局。豆油方面，市场仍对最大的大豆生产国巴西的产量存疑，明年南美的丰产仍然是多头迟疑的最主要原因，国内豆油消费一直未见起色，元旦后或有好转，预计豆油仍将震荡偏弱运行。 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨...