商品研究晨报

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 黄金：高位震荡..................................................................................................................................................................................3白银:美联储官员再度打压降息预期............................................................................................................................................3铜：现货升水回落，限制价格上涨.............................................................................................................................................6铝：价格突破19000.........................................................................................................................................................................8氧化铝：消息刺激价格上涨...........................................................................................................................................................8锌：供需双弱，区间震荡.............................................................................................................................................................10铅：多空交织，延续震荡.............................................................................................................................................................12镍：宏观与消息扰动镍价，供需过剩累库施压....................................................................................................................14不锈钢：钢价小幅修复，消息刺激情绪..................................................................................................................................14锡：企稳震荡....................................................................................................................................................................................16工业硅：关注本周硅料采购节奏...............................................................................................................................................18碳酸锂：低位震荡...........................................................................................................................................................................20铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡....................................................................................................................................................22螺纹钢：政策预期反复，高位震荡...........................................................................................................................................24热轧卷板：政策预期反复，高位震荡......................................................................................................................................24硅铁：板块情绪共振，有限修复...............................................................................................................................................26锰硅：产需驱动不足，利润承压...............................................................................................................................................26焦炭：宏微观共振，高位震荡....................................................................................................................................................28焦煤：宏微观共振，高位震荡....................................................................................................................................................28动力煤：产销平衡，高位震荡....................................................................................................................................................30集运指数（欧线）：红海问题持续发酵，关注上行风险....................................................................................................32玻璃：短期偏弱中期震荡市......................................................................................................................................................35对二甲苯：趋势偏强，短期不追高...........................................................................................................................................36PTA：多PX空PTA..........................................................................................................................................................................36MEG：趋势仍偏强，短期不追高...............................................................................................................................................36橡胶：震荡偏强................................................................................................................................................................................38合成橡胶：供应端扰动，偏强运行...........................................................................................................................................40沥青：震荡延续................................................................................................................................................................................42LLDPE：短期偏强.............................................................................................................................................................................44PP:市场逐步转为震荡市................................................................................................................................................................46烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡市..........