政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？

CBRE Weexplorewhetherindex- linkedGovernmentbondorBBBcorporatebond yieldsaremoreuseful thannominalGovernment bandyieldsfaranalysingprimerealestatepricing CERERESEARCHDECEMBER2023 88.154 44.186 AreGovernmentor corporatebondyields abetterbenchmarkfor UKrealestatepricing? IntelligentInvestment VIEWPOINT Kcytakcaways rlmereeestateyle:srose 1th=last1months,butspr2ecs cvenoriralandreslolltylelds smaln:g1arthanusue –P-inuIevsyiulusIeuirtflus.IBrflctlkslulluu,Llu 'atyedinlureslra.urviroirner,l.Ihes'aa:dbelwallpirre l:isn1ye-rrnerttondl:isrernainsght rparer,wththestdenale –mallspioPc"Gon'tlsoncYolswro LsrvodJclulg-loCleeFi'te'rislClisisf27s.uu.Ufcs F6.IGIS.Ja1f.I|IsI9n(Rr.9dIcuIcosE6.9r. as"a'en'at:rc..atnnmt:itinr:tirtialanmaardcas"Cur'cntprie'inightlguk tawIrhJnvuuurxstx(rthy) –rurpeigonsbu,thisturyshaes Incex-lklGovarr:itl-oncsarc:btarsoncharfor theis-heerelswhorEelir*aoslzls.tccaus:cesh Iwgiolisirlsgialwu.typest''wus.'il.Tlhtapa] ceteerere:dsanlIcva*irdeInke:lCil:zielcsrasneer.ns;#'e'tlyosivethroll.6e,al-ar.1Itis:nr.narre'tharrecer'tyesrs –ccrer32:bcr-lviclil212vetigealcwtclcoorcerro60eneone0 lhualusleal'yicldssincfuseiuslolts,kelculstu.c.olle'iis+3lerrit.*slialiveoCoveirerlto'rdsheyied:lo F3RJKcrrrratrrndishaerer#anvapimereaeylalr.s Itrepi,cnrcuchanigrcquirkly –.:urro'rcolcototcor:g"1igih:leck,afiw.robbas.-:lo" Lhcw:oompulscr3.ou.lhistelyslhieashralttl'cpesitie'ican targeyu'k,it:p'sssuresolltealeslaleilaseIurgm intea*tes"art"allirgratertirnotaca:inigJKntiatirrateardarerrjrc,tferatrising:vcl Tntrocluction Havespreadsell moreconsistent hetweenrealestate yiclclsandthesc thereasures,and dosuchcomparisons suggestthalatighiter sprcadlovernominal Governmentbond yielclscould bcsustained goinglorwardl? Thcu<hasscoenas.stalncdrisoinbothsroit-termndloag-terminlorcslialesovorLhelaslLwuyca's.ThisfollowodadccacoirwhichtheB=nkotEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%.borrowingcos.serg CuerthassMedecace,andemarinexistedbetweerogastateylelds andGovoinmmonlbodvields.Honce,whalmighlbLleimplicaLions[or U<realgstatepricingfrcrlrecentrisesinGovernrrlertanidcorporste bcndyields,ardhov:t=rdorealststeyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechancedfinancialenvironmeat? typicallyverylow,andGcve'nTentbondyieldswierealsve'ylow.supportedhyaprngrammeefquan:itativeezsing. TighterspreadsbetveernukreslestareyiedsandnominaGavernment bendyiclce:havoboonobservexdirthepast,buttroscmigkthavolesulludfrondiffurenlinveslolexpoclaliurisabuulcashfluwgrowrlhorditterencesintheriskprerni'unrequiredorrealestateinvestment. ea:stevielcaqainst,index-linkednve'nmentlnndyields 3ndcorpo*atboadvlclcls3salternatvostcnominalGowernmntoor<ls Havosprotklsbeenme'econeis.ontbewoonroalcstaloyieldsandthcsootherrleasurgs,aiddosuchcoiparisonssuggestthst=tighterspresdoverncninalCovernnentondyieldscoulcbesustainedgoingtorwa'd? NorinalGiltyieltls Targetreturnratestorprimereaestateinvesimentsshculdretlectthe risk-freerataareturn,plusaoreniumforsearingtherisksassociated witFreslestate,hutinvestorsdonotneedtcrecevetFeirtargetreturrratefromcu'rentincomeifthcfuturoashflwsfrom'ealstste irivcslrricrlsalcoxpucloxdlulisu.Tnorckorc,LhcyiulcLnuvroivu initiallycanbelowerth=nthe'rtargetrate.Thisn'a=nsthstyieldswill be'nfluencednotonlybyrisk-freeratesandriskpren'ums.sutalschygrowthexectstions. Thcrioslcurnmenp'oxyforarisk-frecrelenaalysisofJKcomroiciaicaloslalcistnorode'Tiplioniyiold tornoilinalCcrarrillentbcnds(orcits).1O-vearitsarcttenused,cwingtothesirnil=ritybgtwgantheir lengttandthenoldingperiodsusecinmanyrealest=teassetvaluat'ons.10-yearCilts=renothecretcally Flgur1lustratestheyieldfar1ci-yearaitsagjainstansllarope'typrimeyiedoverthelast35years. ThealloropcrtyyiclciscorstivctecooacomxotitoofprincyiolcarocordcdbyCBREforthchighs.icclretail. office,dndincustrialsgctorsofthUKrgalestaternarket. Thisconparisonshcvisthatthespre=dbetveenrealestateyieldsanc10-yearnoninalcrltyieldshasvar'ed alc.tcvertime.heaveragespreadsince2013Fa:heen251hps,butwasany86h.psinthed..adeprartctlis.whiletherewe'eperiadsirthe79a0ssnd19uciswlhenthe10-yesrGiltyieldwssshrvetheprinerealeststeyiclc.Morcover,nctalmovcmentsinnomnalsiltyicld:lcadtechangosinroalcstatevicldsThisisboccauso sc'ric[aclursLhalcavscGillyiulcl:lulisuolfall,suchascharigirigcxpucld.iurisforinflalion,rrighilpicducc ad'tferentreactioninrealestatevields.Forgxampa.ithigherintlazionwsexpectedtogene'atehigher cashflcwgrowtn,thiswoudcounteracta"iseirntherisk-freerate. Hence,thelimirstionsn'th:corparisonarethati:rinits:ansic:eratinrafhnv!viewsabautriskcrgrowth yiclclsandncrninalGillvielcls,givontrelilhasLshlerodinLhccon.oxlofhcignlcrodnleLioaridincrcesus tcpolicyinte'gstratestoaddra:sthis. FIGURE1:PrlrneUKallpropertyyieldsvg.UK10-yearnominalGiltyields 14.2. 17% 1C% 6% 29. %0 +PrimeUKprope/tyylel:] D-yrnominsUKGilt 3wtb. ct,.ob.. Index-linkcdGiltyiclds Inclox-llnkodcovcrnmcrtonlshavccgshflowsthatadjustinlincwithchangosIntheUkRctallPriceIr<lox,a Measu'ecfinflat.inn.Assur:h,theyielc:.Jntedfarsuc.hbanclspraviclesanindiastioncft.heinf