中国11月经济数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaNovembereconomicdatacommentary 中国11月经济数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2023/12/15 DATA November(expected) October September Fixedassetinvestment,accumulatedYoY% 2.9(2.9) 2.9 3.1 Totalretailsalesofconsumergoods,YoY% 10.1(12.6) 7.6 5.5 Value-addedofIndustries,YoY% 6.6(5.7) 4.6 4.5 Urbansurveyedunemploymentrate,% 5.0 5.0 5.0 1)11月中国经济增长有所放缓，但就业表现平稳：由于低基数效应，11月投资、消费、工业增加值的当月同比增速均有所回升；剔除基数效应，投资、消费、工业增加值的增长均有所放缓。失业率连续3个月为5.0%，就业总体平稳。 2)预计中国经济趋于波浪式恢复。万亿国债增发将在明年上半年拉动经济。居民就业稳定，收入与消费有望缓步修复。 1)InNovember,Chinaeconomygrowthsloweddownslightly,butemploymentremainedstable.Duetothelowbaseeffect,theYoYgrowthrateofinvestment,consumption,andvalue-addedofindustriesallreboundedinNovember;excludingthebaseeffect,thegrowthofinvestment,consumption,andvalue-addedofindustrieshasallsloweddown.Theunemploymentratehasbeenat5.0%forthreeconsecutivemonths,andoverallemploymentwasstable. 2)Chinaeconomymayexperienceawavelikerecovery.Theadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondwillboosttheeconomyin2024H1.Employmentisstable,andincomeandconsumptionareexpectedtoslowlyrecover. FixedassetinvestmentRealestateInfrastructureManufacturing FloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldYoY% 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 YoY% (twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoY% (two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021) Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Feb-19Dec-19Oct-20Aug-21Jun-22Apr-23 YoY%20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 RetailSalesofConsumerGoodsValue-addedofIndustries (twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021or2023) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 15 UrbanSurveyedUnemploymentRate% IndexofServicesProductionYoY%,rightaxis (twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021or2023) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Dec-18Oct-19Aug-20Jun-21Apr-22Feb-23 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。