Barcelona 5: The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War

TheFutureofBanking5 ByGiancarloCorsetti,BarryEichengreen,XavierVivesandJerominZettelmeyer TheInternationalEconomicandFinancialOrderAfterthePandemicandWar THEINTERNATIONALECONOMICANDFINANCIALORDERAFTERTHEPANDEMICANDWAR TheFutureofBanking5 CEPRPRESS CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch33GreatSuttonStreet LondonEC1V0DX,UK 187boulevardSaint-Germain 75007Paris,France Tel:+44(20)71838801 Fax:+44(20)71838820 Email:cepr@cepr.orgWeb:www.cepr.org ISBN:978-1-912179-73-2 ©2023CEPRPress THEINTERNATIONALECONOMICANDFINANCIALORDERAFTERTHEPANDEMICANDWAR TheFutureofBanking5 GiancarloCorsetti EuropeanUniversityInstituteandCEPR BarryEichengreen UniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyandCEPR XavierVives IESEBusinessSchoolandCEPR JerominZettelmeyer BruegelandCEPR CENTREFORECONOMICPOLICYRESEARCH(CEPR) TheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(CEPR)isanetworkofover1,500researcheconomistsbasedmostlyinEuropeanuniversities.TheCentre’sgoalistwofold:topromoteworld-classresearch,andtogetthepolicy-relevantresultsintothehandsofkeydecision-makers. CEPR’sguidingprincipleis‘Researchexcellencewithpolicyrelevance’. Aregisteredcharitysinceitwasfoundedin1983,CEPRisindependentofallpublicandprivateinterestgroups.IttakesnoinstitutionalstandoneconomicpolicymattersanditscorefundingcomesfromitsInstitutionalMembersandsalesofpublications.Becauseitdrawsonsuchalargenetworkofresearchers,itsoutputreflectsabroadspectrumofindividualviewpointsaswellasperspectivesdrawnfromcivilsociety. CEPRresearchmayincludeviewsonpolicy,buttheTrusteesoftheCentredonotgivepriorreviewtoitspublications.TheopinionsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandnotthoseofCEPR. ChairoftheBoardSirCharlieBeanFounderandHonoraryPresidentRichardPortes PresidentBeatriceWederdiMauro VicePresidentsMaristellaBotticiniUgoPanizzaHélèneReyPhilippeMartin ChiefExecutiveOfficerTessaOgden IESEBUSINESSSCHOOL IESEisthegraduatebusinessschooloftheUniversityofNavarra.Foundedin1958,theschoolisoneoftheworld´smostinternationalbusinessschools,withcampusesinBarcelona,Madrid,Munich,NewYorkandSãoPaulo.Consistentlyrankedwithinthetoptenworldwide,IESEBusinessSchoolhaspioneeredbusinesseducationinEuropesinceitsfounding. Formorethansixtyyears,IESEhassoughttodevelopbusinessleaderswithsolidbusinessskills,aglobalmind-setandadesiretomakeapositiveimpactonpeopleandsociety.Theschooldistinguishesitselfinitsgeneral-managementapproach,extensiveuseofthecasemethod,internationaloutreach,andemphasisonplacingpeopleattheheartofmanagerialdecision-making. Abouttheauthors GiancarloCorsettiisthePierreWernerChairandProfessorofEconomicsattheEuropeanUniversityInstituteandaCEPRResearchFellow.HepreviouslytaughtatCambridgeUniversity,wherehewasdirectoroftheCambridge-INETInstitute.Beforethis,hetaughtattheUniversitiesofRomeIII,Yale,andBologna.Heisaleadingscholarininternationaleconomicsandopen-economymacroeconomicswithcontributionsoncurrencyvalues,financialandsovereigncrises,andmonetaryandfiscalpolicy.Hehasbeenalong-servingconsultantattheEuropeanCentralBank,theBankofEngland,andtheBancad’Italia,andaregularvisitingprofessorincentralbanksandinternationalinstitutions.HeisafellowoftheBritishAcademy. BarryEichengreenisGeorgeC.PardeeandHelenN.PardeeChairandDistinguishedProfessorofEconomicsandProfessorofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.HeisaResearchAssociateoftheNBER,ResearchFellowoftheCEPRandafellowoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences.HeisadistinguishedfellowoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation,acorrespondingfellowoftheBritishAcademy,andaLifeFellowoftheCliometricSociety.HeisapastpresidentoftheEconomicHistoryAssociation(2010-11).HismostrecentbookisInDefenseofPublicDebtwithAsmaaEl-Ganainy,RuiEstevesandKrisMitchener. XavierVivesisChairedProfessorofEconomicsandFinanceatIESEBusinessSchool.HeisaFellowoftheEconometricSocietysince1992,theEuropeanEconomicAssociationsince2004,andtheAcademiaEuropaeasince2012.HeisalsoaPastPresidentofEARIEandcurrentPresidentoftheEuropeanFinanceAssociation.HewasDuisenbergFellowoftheEuropeanCentralBankin2015.HismostrecentbookisCompetitionandStabilityinBanking.In2011-2014hewasSpecialAdvisortotheEUCommissionerforCompetition,MrJoaquinAlmunia,anduntilMay2020hewasLeadIndependentDirectorofCaixaBank. JerominZettelmeyerisDirectorofBruegelsinceSeptember2022.JerominwaspreviouslyaDeputyDirectoroftheStrategyandPolicyReviewDepartmentoftheIMF,SeniorFellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,Director-GeneralforEconomicPolicyattheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergy;andDirectorofResearchandDeputyChiefEconomistattheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment.HeisaResearchFellowintheInternationalMacroeconomicsProgrammeoftheCEPRandofCESIfo.Hehaspublishedwidelyontopicsincludingfinancialcrises,sovereigndebt,economicgrowth,transitiontomarket,andEurope’smonetaryunion. Acknowledgements Theauthorshavebenefitedfromthecommentsofthediscussantsofthereportattheonlineconferenceon30March2023,LindaGoldberg,Pierre-OlivierGourinchas,Robert VIMcCauley,FrancescaMonti,AdrianPeralta,RicardoReis,andIsabelVansteenkiste,as wellastheconferenceparticipantsan