中国11月PMI点评

ChinaNovemberPMICommentary 中国11月PMI点评 LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 2023/12/01 November October September August ManufacturingPMI 49.4 49.5 50.2 49.7 Non-manufacturingPMI 50.2 50.6 51.7 50.5 1)11月PMI略有回落，但业务预期改善。由于需求相对不足， 11月制造业与服务业PMI均有所回落，建筑业PMI有所回升但仍偏低。不过，万亿国债增发提振经济预期，11月制造业、建筑业与服务业PMI业务活动预期指数均明显上升。 2)万亿国债有望在年底初步形成实物工作量，推动经济改善。 1)ChinaNovemberPMIfellslightly,butbusinessexpectationsimproved.Duetoinsufficientdemand,boththemanufacturingandserviceindustryPMIfellinNovember,whiletheconstructionindustryPMIreboundedbutremainedlow.Astheadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondboostedeconomicexpectations,thebusinessactivityexpectationindexesofmanufacturing,constructionandserviceindustriesallrosesignificantly. 2)Trilliontreasurybondisexpectedtoinitiallyformaphysicalworkloadbytheendoftheyeartopromoteeconomicimprovement. ChinaManufacturingPMI ManufacturingPMINewOrderIndex 58ProductionIndex ChinaServiceIndustryPMI 60BusinessActivityIndexNewOrderIndex 5655 54 5250 50 4845 4640 44 4235 EmploymentIndex Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23 Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及 数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。