把握住趋势是永不晚的正确行为

12 04 I2023 20111290 V 100 2023 11PMI 124128 7.10-7.19 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................1 1.2..........................................................................3 1.2.1.............................................................................................3 1.2.2.............................................................................................4 1.2.3.............................................................................................4 2.................................................................................................5 2.1-..................................................................5 2.2.......................................................................5 2.2.1.....................................................................................5 2.2.2.....................................................................................6 2.2.3..................................................................................8 2.2.4..................................................................................9 2.3................................................................................10 2.3.1.................................................................10 2.3.2..............................................................11 3........................................................................................12 3.1.................................................................12 3.2...................................................................................15 3.3..........................................................17 ...........................................................................................19 ..................................................................................................20 ……………………………………………………………………………….21 .........................................................................................................22 ......................................................................................................22 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1 2 1.1.12023112712 1.1.2 .....................................................................2 1.1.3 CMEFedWatch / .............................3 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................5 2.2.1 ..........................................................5 2.2.2 ..............................................................5 2.2.3 ..........................................................6 2.2.4 ................................................................................7 2.2.5 % ..............................................................8 2.2.6 .....................................................................9 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH .......................................................................10 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %........................10 2.3.1 .............................................10 2.3.2 .......................................................................10 2.3.3 .............................................11 2.3.4 .......................................................................11 3.3.1 2023.11.27-12.1 ..............................17 1 .................................19 2 % ..................................................................20 3 ...................................................21 4 Shibor %............................................................................21 5SOFR %.............................................................................21 6%.................................................................................22 7....................................................................................22 1. ( BIS 7.1151 7.1159 7.1018 7.1104 -0.066% USDCNY7.1529 7.1519 7.1246 7.1400 -0.180% USDCNH7.1551 7.1549 7.1238 7.1433 -0.165% 149.5775 148.8951 146.9765 146.9765 -1.739% 1.0933 1.1005 1.0880 1.0880 -0.486% 1.2600 1.2710 1.2612 1.2683 0.662% 103.4383 103.5064 102.7309 103.2067 -0.224% CFETS98.29 —— —— 98.58 0.295% 102.93 —— —— 103.22 0.282% 93.64 —— —— 93.83 0.203% 1.1 20231127121 12116:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) V FOMC Waller Waller Ackman 32544.7% 11PMI11PMI49.4%49.7%49.5%0.111 PMI50.2%50.6%0.411 PMI 7.1412 116:30 103.20677.14007.1433 1.1.120231127 121 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.40110.00 7.35108.00 7.30106.00 7.25104.00 7.20102.00 7.15100.00 7.10 2023-08-032023-09-032023-10-032023-11-03 98.00 : iFinD 1.1.3CMEFedWatch / CME 1.2 1.2.1 7.40 2022 100 OECD 2023 GDP 2.9%20242.7%2023 11PMI EPMI 2023 11PMI 5.2%20244.7%9 124 128 7.10- 7.19 1.2.2 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 121 47 7.1104 2.1.1 1 2 -471601