来自针织品产品的混合信号

Nameson|01982.HK COMPANY NOTE Mixed signals from the knitwear products H F NGO, Brian, CFA SENIOR ANALYSTbrianngo@westbullsec.com.hk+8523896 29652701–2703,27/F, Infinitus Plaza, 199 Des Voeux RdCentral, Sheung Wan, HK STOCK RATING NR Thetotal revenue of Nameson(01982.HK)in 2023/24 1HslashedYoY 12.0%toHKD 2,726.4mn, and theadjusted net profit dropped YoY 15.7% to HKD 289.1mn, bringing the adjusted net profit margin to 10.6%. Impossible triangle:Nameson (01982.HK) announced a HKD 0.095 dividend per share, amounting to a74.8% payout ratio.We areastonishedabout the dividend declared and the payout ratio, we do believethat is a catalyst supporting the stock price in theshort term. However,it is challenging for the Group tosimultaneously maintain a low gearing ratio, high dividend payout ratio and aggressive expansion. Thecurrent interest-bearing debts and the cash on hand reached HKD 664.5mn and HKD 1,120.7mnrespectively as at the end of Sep 2023, in consideration of HKD 300mn–HKD 400mn CAPEX (for Vietnamfactory, fabric and cashmere business etc.)andthe current dividend payout,we expect that the gearingratio will remain relatively flat and the dividend payout ratio of 2023/24 2H will be lower than 1H. Stock RatingNRTarget PriceHK$-Current PriceHK$ 0.6152-Week RangeHK$ 0.375–0.650Market cap. (HKD, bn)HK$1.4 Mixedsignals from the knitwear products:Knitwear products remained the primary contributor toNameson (01982.HK), the sales volume slightly increased YoY 1.6% to 19.0mn pieces, of which the salesvolume of wholegarment products increased YoY 17.6%.However, theYoY 12.9% decline in ASP offset anincrease in sales volume,it was a result of theadjustmentof the sales price of wholegarment and thedecline in sales of cashmere products.It is positive to hear thatthe potential orders fromalmostallcustomers show a rebound in the 2023/24 2H, leading to single-digit growth in the sales volume guidancethat is more optimistic than before.However,the ASP of the knitwear products, especially wholegarment,is expected to remain at a lower level due toa lower raw material price, limiting the growth in the top-line and bottom-line.Besides, we believe that the gross margin will not increase furtherbut reverse to anormal leveldue to an appreciation of RMB against USD. Be prepared forthefuture:in response to the weakmarket condition,Nameson (01982.HK)tries to strikea balance betweencash reservation andbusiness expansion.Iti)plans toincrease theknitwearproductioncapacityby 5mn pcs in Vietnamin responsetothe demandforproducts produced outside China,ii)furtherbetson the fabric businessthatmay bring a bettergrowth potential to the Group,and iii)limits itsCAPEXto<HKD 400mn, the soft steps taken don’t bring an exciting performance to the Groupimmediately butallows the Groupto graspopportunitiesinmarketturnaround. Uncertainty in Myanmar:Thefactory inMyanmar remainsaprimary uncertaintyfaced by Nameson(01982.HK).Accordingto thelatest financial report, customers displayed reluctance to procure fromMyanmar due to politicalconsiderations, the possibility for further impairment cannot beruled out. Peers comparison Risk factors ◼Lossing market shares in primary customers’orders◼Shrinking market sizefor knitwear products◼Unable to find new growth drivers◼Unable to maintainamarket-expecteddividendpayout ratio◼Appreciation of RMB against USD Financial Statement West Bull Securitiesis a dedicated small/mid cap stockbrokerage house. Find our research on: Bloomberg, factset.com, Capital IQ,Refinitiv,Wind, Choice, Hiborand同花順. Ratingsof WestBull Securities: STRONGBUY:absoluteupside of >50% over the next 12 monthsBUY:absoluteupside of >10% over the next12monthsHOLD: absolute return of-10% to +10% over the next 12 monthsSELL: absolute downside of >10%over the next 12 monthsSTRONGSELL: absolute downside of >50% over the next 12 months Investors should assume thatWest Bull Securitiesis seeking or will seek investment banking or other related businesses with thecompanies in this report. Analyst certification:The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views of the subject securities and thatthe analyst has not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendationsor views in this report. Disclaimer: This research report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The securities referred toin this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. The information contained in this report has been compiled by theResearch Department ofWestBull Securities Limited (‘West Bull Securities’) from sources that it believes to be reliable but norepresentation, warranty or guarantee is made or given byWest Bull SecuritiesSecuritiesor any other person as to its accuracy orcompleteness. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report are (unless otherwise indicated) entirely those ofWest BullSecurit