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来自针织品产品的混合信号

2023-12-01H F NGO、Brian西牛证券J***

AI智能总结

Nameson (01982.HK) reported a 12% YoY decline in revenue to HKD 2,726.4mn in 1H24, with an adjusted net profit drop of 15.7% to HKD 289.1mn. The adjusted net profit margin was 10.6%. The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.095 per share, amounting to a 74.8% payout ratio, which is a catalyst for the stock price in the short term. However, it is challenging for the Group to maintain a low gearing ratio, high dividend payout ratio, and aggressive expansion. The current interest-bearing debts and cash on hand reached HKD 664.5mn and HKD 1,120.7mn respectively as at the end of Sep 2023, in consideration of HKD 300mn – HKD 400mn CAPEX (for Vietnam factory, fabric and cashmere business etc.) and the current dividend payout, we expect that the gearing ratio will remain relatively flat and the dividend payout ratio of 2023/24 2H will be lower than 1H. Knitwear products remained the primary contributor to Nameson, with a sales volume increase of 1.6% YoY to 19.0mn pieces, of which the sales volume of wholegarment products increased YoY 17.6%. However, the YoY 12.9% decline in ASP offset an increase in sales volume, it was a result of the adjustment of the sales price of wholegarment and the decline in sales of cashmere products. The potential orders from almost all customers show a rebound in the 2023/24 2H, leading to single-digit growth in the sales volume guidance that is 10% YoY.

1Dev,2023 Nameson|01982.HK |RESEARCH COMPANYNOTE Mixedsignalsfromtheknitwearproducts STOCKRATINGNR TARGETPRICE HK$- ThetotalrevenueofNameson(01982.HK)in2023/241HslashedYoY12.0%toHKD2,726.4mn,andtheadjustednetprofitdroppedYoY15.7%toHKD289.1mn,bringingtheadjustednetprofitmarginto10.6%. Impossibletriangle:Nameson(01982.HK)announcedaHKD0.095dividendpershare,amountingtoa74.8%payoutratio.Weareastonishedaboutthedividenddeclaredandthepayoutratio,wedobelievethatisacatalystsupportingthestockpriceintheshortterm.However,itischallengingfortheGrouptosimultaneouslymaintainalowgearingratio,highdividendpayoutratioandaggressiveexpansion.Thecurrentinterest-bearingdebtsandthecashonhandreachedHKD664.5mnandHKD1,120.7mnrespectivelyasattheendofSep2023,inconsiderationofHKD300mn–HKD400mnCAPEX(forVietnamfactory,fabricandcashmerebusinessetc.)andthecurrentdividendpayout,weexpectthatthegearingratiowillremainrelativelyflatandthedividendpayoutratioof2023/242Hwillbelowerthan1H. Mixedsignalsfromtheknitwearproducts:KnitwearproductsremainedtheprimarycontributortoNameson(01982.HK),thesalesvolumeslightlyincreasedYoY1.6%to19.0mnpieces,ofwhichthesalesvolumeofwholegarmentproductsincreasedYoY17.6%.However,theYoY12.9%declineinASPoffsetanincreaseinsalesvolume,itwasaresultoftheadjustmentofthesalespriceofwholegarmentandthedeclineinsalesofcashmereproducts.Itispositivetohearthatthepotentialordersfromalmostallcustomersshowareboundinthe2023/242H,leadingtosingle-digitgrowthinthesalesvolumeguidancethatismoreoptimisticthanbefore.However,theASPoftheknitwearproducts,especiallywholegarment,isexpectedtoremainatalowerlevelduetoalowerrawmaterialprice,limitingthegrowthinthetop-lineandbottom-line.Besides,webelievethatthegrossmarginwillnotincreasefurtherbutreversetoanormallevelduetoanappreciationofRMBagainstUSD. Bepreparedforthefuture:inresponsetotheweakmarketcondition,Nameson(01982.HK)triestostrikeabalancebetweencashreservationandbusinessexpansion.Iti)planstoincreasetheknitwearproductioncapacityby5mnpcsinVietnaminresponsetothedemandforproductsproducedoutsideChina,ii)furtherbetsonthefabricbusinessthatmaybringabettergrowthpotentialtotheGroup,andiii)limitsitsCAPEXto<HKD400mn,thesoftstepstakendon’tbringanexcitingperformancetotheGroupimmediatelybutallowstheGrouptograspopportunitiesinmarketturnaround. HFNGO,Brian,CFA SENIORANALYST brianngo@westbullsec.com.hk +85238962965 2701–2703,27/F,InfinitusPlaza,199DesVoeuxRdCentral,SheungWan,HK Nameson(01982.HK) StockRating NR TargetPrice HK$- CurrentPrice HK$0.61 52-WeekRange HK$0.375–0.650 Marketcap.(HKD,bn) HK$1.4 HKD,mn 2019/ 20(A) 2020/ 21(A) 2021/ 22(A) 2022/ 23(A) Revenue 4,480.7 3,848.6 4,040.5 4,602.3 GrossProfit 690.1 701.4 706.1 745.5 GrossMargin 15.4% 18.2% 17.5% 16.2% NetProfit 151.5 298.4 275.6 158.3 ROE 7.3% 13.2% 11.0% 6.2% Performance 1mth 3mth 6mth 1year Absolute 45.2% 37.1% 26.0% 37.0% RelativetoHSI 47.3% 44.9% 34.4% 45.3% 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 2022-11-28 2022-12-28 2023-01-28 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2023-09-30 2023-10-31 2023-11-30 0.00 UncertaintyinMyanmar:ThefactoryinMyanmarremainsaprimaryuncertaintyfacedbyNameson(01982.HK).Accordingtothelatestfinancialreport,customersdisplayedreluctancetoprocurefromMyanmarduetopoliticalconsiderations,thepossibilityforfurtherimpairmentcannotberuledout. Peerscomparison Mkt.Cap. P/E Fw.P/E P/B P/S Revenue GM ROE (HKD,mn) (x) (x) (x) (x) (HKD,mn) (%) (%) 00420.HK FountainSet 483.9 - - 0.2 0.1 6,053.6 9.5 (8.2) 02232.HK CrystalIntl 7,588.5 5.7 - 0.7 0.4 19,505.8 18.6 12.8 02313.HK ShenzhouIntl 117,852.6 24.9 - 3.3 4.2 32,349.7 22.1 14.0 02368.HK EagleNice 2,295.3 8.1 - 1.3 0.6 4,051.1 18.7 16.6 Average 32,055.1 12.9 - 1.4 1.3 18,635.5 19.8 14.5 01982.HK Nameson 1,390.4 7.3 - 0.6 0.3 4,602.3 16.2 7.5 Source:Bloomberg,WestBullSecurities Riskfactors Lossingmarketsharesinprimarycustomers’orders Shrinkingmarketsizeforknitwearproducts Unabletofindnewgrowthdrivers Unabletomaintainamarket-expecteddividendpayoutratio AppreciationofRMBagainstUSD FinancialStatement PnL(HKD,mn) 2019/20(A) 2020/21(A) 2021/22(A) 2022/23(A) BalanceSheet(HKD,mn) 2019/20(A) 2020/21(A) 2021/22(A) 2022/23(A) Revenue 4,480.7 3,848.6 4,040.5 4,602.3 PPE 1,515.7 1,770.8 2,131.1 1,780.4 YoYgrowth 2.8% -14.1% 5.0% 13.9% Others 1,269.2 1,098.5 640.0 601.8 COGS (3,790.6) (3,147.1) (3,334.4) (3,856.8) Non-currentassets 2,784.9 2,869.4 2,771.2 2,382.3 Grossprofit 690.1 701.4 706.1 745.5 Otherincome 43.7 48.1 19.5 125.4 Inventories 806.5 721.6 1,161.2 1,032.0 Operatingexpenses (497.5) (381.9) (386.2) (629.2) Tradereceivables 164.0 143.9 146.2 132.7 Operatingprofit 236.4 367.6 339.4 241.7 Cash&cashequivalents 713.1 793.2 610.7 717.0 Financeexpenses,net (62.8) (33.0) (21.2) (33.0) Others 357.9 127.6 124.9 165.1 JV&Ass. 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.7 Currentassets 2,041.4 1,786.2 2,043.1 2,046.8 Profitbeforetax 174.4 334.7 319.0 209.4 Tax (22.8) (36.3) (43.4) (51.1) Totalassets 4,826.4 4,655.6 4,814.3 4,429.1 Netprofit 151.5 298.4 275.6 158.3 YoYgrowth -1

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