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Fuel Economy of Passenger Cars in the Global South

2023-03-28联合国土***

FuelEconomyofPassengerCarsintheGlobalSouth: Acaseoftwostepsforward,onestepbackasfueleconomyimprovementsarereducedbyincreasingcarpowerandweight FuelEconomyofPassengerCars intheGlobalSouth: Acaseoftwostepsforward,onestepbackasfueleconomyimprovementsarereducedbyincreasingcarpowerandweight BySudhirGota,IndependentConsultant June2023 FUELECONOMYOFPASSENGERCARSINTHEGLOBALSOUTH Acknowledgements ThisreportassessesthefueleconomyofpassengervehiclesintheGlobalSouthandhasbeencarriedoutmainlythroughthefinancialsupportoftheEuropeanCommission,FIAFoundationandUNEP. Author SudhirGota,IndependentConsultant Reviewer SustainableMobilityUnit,UNEP Disclaimers ThecontentandviewsexpressedinthispublicationdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesoftheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP).Neitherdotheyimplyanyendorsement.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthispublicationdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartofUNEPconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,orcityoritsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersandboundaries.MentionofacommercialcompanyorproductinthispublicationdoesnotimplytheendorsementofUNEP. Reproduction Thispublicationmaybereproducedinwholeorinpartandinanyformforeducationalornon-profitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholder,providedacknowledgementofthesourceismade.UNEPwouldappreciatereceivingacopyofanypublicationthatusesthispublicationasasource.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleoranyothercommercialpurposewhatsoeverwithoutpriorpermissioninwritingfromUNEP. AForbibliographypurposesthisdocumentmaybecitedas: “FuelEconomyofPassengerCarsintheGlobalSouth:Acaseoftwostepsforward,onestepbackasfueleconomyimprovementsarereducedbyincreasingcarpowerandweight” June2023 Contents 1.ExecutiveSummary4 2.Introduction8 3.HowistheFuelEconomyBaselineDetermined?12 4.WhatistheFuelEconomyStatusofthePassengerCarsintheGlobalSouth?14 5.WhatistheStatusofthePassengerCarMarket?18 6.DriversofFuelEconomyTrendsintheGlobalSouth22 a.EngineDisplacement23 b.TheRaceforWeightandPower25 c.DieselDisappointment28 d.WhatistheSpillOverImpactofUsedLDVTrade?30 e.IsFuelEconomyGettingPrioritisedinPolicies?32 7.WhataretheImplicationsoftheCurrentFuelEconomyTrendsintheGlobalSouth?34 a.Scenarios35 b.HowtheScenariosComparewiththeGFEITarget?35 c.OverallImpactofFuelEconomyInterventionsintheGlobalSouth36 8.Conclusion38 Annex1–ListofCountriesAssessedinthisReport40 Annex2.CountryOverviews41 FUELECONOMYOFPASSENGERCARSINTHEGLOBALSOUTH 1.ExecutiveSummary Transportisamajorcontributortocarbondioxideandotherharmfulpollutants.Ashifttocleanerandmoreefficientvehicles,includingelectricmobility,hasbeenprioritizedasakeysolutiontolimitingtransportemissionsandsavingonfuelconsumptionamongotherco-benefits.Whiletherehasbeen,generally,considerableprogressinmostoftheGlobalNorthtowardsthisshift,theGlobalSouthislargelylagging.TheinclusionoftheGlobalSouthiscrucialtotheachievementofinternationalclimategoalsrelatingtocleanermobilityastheglobalvehiclegrowthisexpectedtoshifttotheGlobalSouthinthecomingdecades. TheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiative(GFEI)isthefirstleadingglobalinitiativetopartnerwiththeGlobalSouthtoassessvehiclefueleconomyanddeveloppoliciestoimproveefficiency.Formedin2009bysixleadingorganisations–theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),theFIAFoundation,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theInternationalTransportForum(ITF),the InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(ICCT)andUCDavisInstituteofTransportStudies,theGFEIaimedatadoublingofpassengercarsfuelefficiencyby2050basedon2005levelsthroughtheadoptionofcleaner,morefuel-efficientvehicles.Atthetime ofitsformation,passengercarsrepresentedthehighestgrowingvehiclesegment,withconsumerchoicestowardsbettervehicleefficiencybeingeasilyinfluencedthroughbetterpoliciesandincentives.In2019,atits10thanniversary,theGFEIupdateditsobjectivestocoverallroadvehiclesandpromotezerocarbonvehicles. Thisreportlooksatfueleconomyassessmentsforpassengercarscarriedoutin109countries. Ofthese,64developingandtransitionalcountriesweresupportedbyUNEPtocarryoutfueleconomybaselinestudies,withsomeofthesecountries alsoassistedtodevelopfueleconomypolicies.Anadditional45countriesincludedintheanalysishavetheirfueleconomydataeitherpubliclyavailable oravailablethroughtheIEA,aGFEIpartner–seeAnnex1forthefulllistofthecountriesanalysed. ThereportisafirstattemptatassessingthefueleconomyintheGlobalSouthandhasbeencarriedoutmainlythroughthefinancialsupport oftheEuropeanCommission,FIAFoundationandUNEP.Thereportreviewscumulativelyatotalof30millionlight-dutyvehicles,from68developing andtransitionalcountriesthatwereanalysedfrom2010to2019fromacrossdifferentregions(64countriessupportedbyUNEPandanadditional4countriessupportedbyotherGFEIpartners).Theremainingcountrieswereincludedintheanalysisforcomparativereasons.Akeyfindingfromtheanalysisisthatwhilethehighestfueleconomyprogress wasinhigh-incomecountries,theimprovementisstagnating.Incontrast,therateofimprovementintheGlobalSouthisintensifying.However,thefueleconomyimprove

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