监测亚洲的需求和供应：一种行业层面的方法

This paper examines the demand and supply factors driving GDP and its deflator in 12 Asian countries, the US, and Europe using the forecast error-based methodology of Shapiro (2022). The study extends this methodology by considering a range of statistical forecasting models and providing a measure of idiosyncratic demand and supply movements. The findings indicate that lockdowns in 2020 were driven by a combination of demand and supply shocks in Asia, with idiosyncratic demand shocks playing a significant role. The paper provides valuable insights into the drivers of economic activity in Asia and can inform policy decisions.

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