Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey

PublicSupportforClimateChangeMitigationPolicies ACross-CountrySurvey EraDabla-Norris,SalmaKhalid,GiacomoMagistretti,andAlexandreSollaci WP/23/223 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 OCT ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/223 IMFWorkingPaper FiscalAffairsDepartment PublicSupportforClimateChangeMitigationPolicies:ACross-CountrySurveyPreparedbyEraDabla-Norris,SalmaKhalid,GiacomoMagistretti,andAlexandreSollaci* AuthorizedfordistributionbyEraDabla-NorrisAugust2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Buildingpublicsupportforclimatemitigationisakeyprerequisitetomakingmeaningfulstridestowarddecarbonizationandachievingnet-zeroemissions.Usingnationallyrepresentative,individual-levelsurveysfor28countries,thispaperidentifiesthecurrentlevelsanddriversofsupportforclimatemitigationpolicies.Controllingforindividualcharacteristics,wefindthatpre-existingbeliefsaboutpolicyefficacy,perceivedcostsandco-benefits(e.g.,cleanerair),andthedegreeofpolicyprogressivityareimportantdriversofsupportforcarbonpricingpolicies.Theknowledgegapaboutclimatemitigationpoliciescanbelarge,butrandomizedinformationexperimentsshowthatsupportincreases(decreases)afterindividualsareintroducedtonewinformationonthebenefits(potentialcosts)ofsuchpolicies. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Dabla-Norris,Era,SalmaKhalid,GiacomoMagistretti,andAlexandreSollaci.2023.“PublicSupportforClimateChangeMitigationPolicies:ACross-CountrySurvey.”IMFWorkingPaper23/223,InternationalMonetaryFund,Washington,DC. JELClassificationNumbers: Q54,Q58,C83,C90 Keywords: Climatemitigationpolicies;survey;experiments Author’sE-MailAddress: edablanorris@imf.org;skhalid@imf.org;gmagistretti@imf.org;abalduinosollaci@imf.org. *WearegratefultoThomasHelblingandKrishnaSrinivasanfortheirsupportinrunningthesurveythatledtothisproject,andtoHibahKhanforassistancewiththequestionnairedesignandinitialdataanalysis.WealsothankseminarparticipantsattheIDBandIMF,andparticipantsinthelauncheventfor“PublicPerceptionsofClimateMitigationPolicies:EvidencefromCross-CountrySurveys”forhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.Theviewsexpressedinpaperaresolelythoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. WORKINGPAPERS PublicSupportforClimateChangeMitigationPolicies ACross-CountrySurvey PreparedbyEraDabla-Norris,SalmaKhalid,GiacomoMagistretti,andAlexandreSollaci1 1WearegratefultoThomasHelblingandKrishnaSrinivasanfortheirsupportinrunningthesurveythatledtothisproject,andtoHibahKhanforassistancewiththequestionnairedesignandinitialdataanalysis.WealsothankseminarparticipantsattheIDBandIMF,andparticipantsinthelauncheventfor“PublicPerceptionsofClimateMitigationPolicies:EvidencefromCross-CountrySurveys”forhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.Theviewsexpressedinpaperaresolelythoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 1 Contents Introduction3 RelatedLiterature4 TheSurvey5 DescriptiveStatistics8 TextAnalysis9 DriversofSupportforClimateMitigatingPolicies11 EmpiricalMethodology11 PerceptionsofClimateChange12 PerceptionsofClimatePolicies13 SupportforOtherClimatePolicies18 InformationExperiments20 ClimateAction:CommunityandGlobalSupport22 CarbonPricingandInternationalAction22 Conclusion24 References26 AnnexA.Tables29 AnnexB.AdditionalFigures33 AnnexC.TextAnalysis34 AnnexD.SampleQuestionnaire36 Introduction Tacklingclimatechangeisanurgentandfundamentalchallenge.Whileprogresshasbeenmadeintermsofpolicycommitments,ambitionsandimplementationstilllagwellbehindwhatisneededtoreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandachieving2015Paristemperaturegoals.Garneringpublicbuy-inforclimatepoliciesiscriticaltodecarbonizationandachievingnetzero.Afirststepinthisdirectionistounderstandpublicviewsonclimatechange,whatdrivessupportformitigationpolicies,andwhatmightincreasepolicysupport. Withthisgoalinmind,weconductlarge-scalesurveysacross28advancedandemergingmarketeconomiestoexaminehowindividualcharacteristicsandbeliefsshapeclimateriskperceptionsandpreferencesforclimatepolicies.Whileweconsiderdifferentclimatemitigationpolicies,wefocusonsupportforcarbonpricing.Carbonpricingiswidelyacceptedasthemosteffectivepolicyforcurbingemissions(seeParry,2019),andithasbeenshowntowork(Martinetal.,2014,Andersson,2019,andAbrelletal.,2022),butpoliticalacceptabilityofsuchpoliciesisoftenlow.Inthispaper,wedocumentthesurveyfindings;policyimplicationsareprominentlydiscussedinDabla-Norrisetal.(2023). Thelarge-scalesurveyscollectcomprehensiveinformationondemographiccharacteristicsofrespondents,climateriskperceptions,viewsonspecificpolicies,andopinionsaboutinternationalburdensharingofthe