印度尼西亚的非正规性：水平、趋势和特点（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10586 InformalityinIndonesia Levels,Trends,andFeatures IndiraMaulaniHapsariShuYu UtzJohannPapeWaelMansour Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeOctober2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10586 Abstract Informalityisamultidimensionaldevelopmentchallengewithfeaturesthatpotentiallydifferacrossworkers,firms,andcountries.Thispaperfirstbrieflysummarizestheliterature,discussesthemultipleexistingdefinitionsofinformality,andadaptsthecross-countryanalyticalframe-workoninformalitytothecontextofIndonesia.Itthenusesseveralnoveldatasetsandarangeofmodelingapproachestocapturethelevelsandtrendsofbothoutputandemploy-mentinformalityinIndonesia.ItfurthercontributestotheexistingliteraturebyestimatinginformalityinIndonesiaattheregional,provincial,andsectorallevels.Thoseestimateswerethenbenchmarkedtothelevels,trends,andfeaturesoftheinformalsectorinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiestoexaminewhetherthemajorfeaturesofthe informalsectorinIndonesiadeviatefromthoseobservedinotheremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies.Thepaperfindsthatdespitethedecliningtrend,bothoutputandemploymentinformalityremainelevatedandbroadlyabovethecomparatorcountriesintheregion.Informal-ityinIndonesiaismostlyconcentratedinagricultureandlow-skilledservicesandisassociatedwithhigherpovertyattheprovinciallevel.Therealsoappeartobeproductivity,education,andsalarygapsbetweenformalandinformalworkers.Moreover,marketsarenotsegregatedasinformalfirmscompetestronglywithformalones.Finally,informal-ityseemstoposemacroeconomicchallengesastaxeffortsandfinancialsectordepthremainbelowtheaveragesforemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies. ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatihapsari@worldbank.org;syu2@worldbank.org;upape@worldbank.org;wmansour@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam InformalityinIndonesia:Levels,Trends,andFeatures Authors:IndiraMaulaniHapsari,ShuYu,UtzJohannPape,WaelMansourAllWorldBankStaff JELclassification: E2Consumption,Saving,Production,Investment,LaborMarkets,andInformalEconomy;O1EconomicDevelopment; O4EconomicGrowthandAggregate; J2DemandandSupplyofLaborProductivity;R1GeneralRegionalEconomics Keywords:Informality,Indonesia,Growth,Employment,Macroeconomics. Contents 1.Introduction3 2.AdaptingthemultidimensionalapproachofinformalityanalysistoIndonesia4 2.1Definitionsofinformality:GlobalvsIndonesia4 2.2Informalitydataandestimationmethodsdescription:Cross-countryandIndonesia-specificdatabases6 3.Levelsandtrendsofinformality:EMDEsvsIndonesia8 3.1InformalityinEMDEs8 3.2InformalityinIndonesia9 3.3InformalityattheregionallevelinIndonesia10 4.Policyanddevelopmentchallengesassociatedwithinformality:EMDEsvsIndonesia12 4.1Developmentchallengesassociatedwithinformality12 4.1.1Underdevelopment,povertyandproductivitygaps12 4.1.2Poorgovernance,unfriendlybusinessclimates,andheavy-handedregulationsleadingtohigh-costinvestment18 4.2Policychallengesassociatedwithpervasiveinformality19 4.3TheCOVID-19shockandtheinformalsectorinIndonesia22 5.Conclusion25 Reference27 Annex1:Examplesofcommondefinitionsofinformalityintheliterature31 Annex2:DefinitionsofinformalityfromSAKERNAS33 Annex3:Descriptionofinformalitydimensions34 Annex4:MIMICModelEstimationResults(1993-2021)36 Annex5:TheimpacttransmissionchannelsoftheCOVID-19shockontheinformalsector37 1.Introduction 1.Informalityisabroaddevelopmentchallengewithmultiplefeaturesanddifferentlayersofanalysis.Informalityisassociatedwithmanydevelopmentchallenges,suchaslowerproductivityfirms,lessprotectedworkers,andtaxleakages(Loayza2018;OhnsorgeandYu2021;Ulyssea2020).Atthesametime,theinformalsectorprovideslivelihoods,creativity,andbuffersagainstshocks.ThelatterwasexemplifiedbytherecentshockinducedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Despitethesignificanceofinformalityinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),itremainsdifficulttomeasureandstudy,mainlyduetothepresenceofmultipledefinitionsforinformalityandthelackofestimates(Elginetal.2021a).ThisisparticularlythecaseinIndonesiawherealimitednumberofstudieshavefocusedontheinformalsector.1 2.Againstthisbackdrop,thispaperusesseveralnoveldatasetsandvariousmodelingapproachestomea