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印度尼西亚的非正规性：水平、趋势和特点（英）

金融2023-10-01世界银行S***

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This Policy Research Working Paper explores informality in Indonesia, examining its levels, trends, and features. The paper adapts a cross-country analytical framework to the Indonesian context and uses novel datasets and modeling approaches to capture informality in both output and employment. The paper also estimates informality at the regional, provincial, and sectoral levels and benchmarks these estimates to other countries. Overall, the paper provides valuable insights into the complex and multidimensional nature of informality in Indonesia and contributes to the ongoing conversation about development challenges in the country.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10586 InformalityinIndonesia Levels,Trends,andFeatures IndiraMaulaniHapsariShuYu UtzJohannPapeWaelMansour Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeOctober2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10586 Abstract Informalityisamultidimensionaldevelopmentchallengewithfeaturesthatpotentiallydifferacrossworkers,firms,andcountries.Thispaperfirstbrieflysummarizestheliterature,discussesthemultipleexistingdefinitionsofinformality,andadaptsthecross-countryanalyticalframe-workoninformalitytothecontextofIndonesia.Itthenusesseveralnoveldatasetsandarangeofmodelingapproachestocapturethelevelsandtrendsofbothoutputandemploy-mentinformalityinIndonesia.ItfurthercontributestotheexistingliteraturebyestimatinginformalityinIndonesiaattheregional,provincial,andsectorallevels.Thoseestimateswerethenbenchmarkedtothelevels,trends,andfeaturesoftheinformalsectorinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiestoexaminewhetherthemajorfeaturesofthe informalsectorinIndonesiadeviatefromthoseobservedinotheremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies.Thepaperfindsthatdespitethedecliningtrend,bothoutputandemploymentinformalityremainelevatedandbroadlyabovethecomparatorcountriesintheregion.Informal-ityinIndonesiaismostlyconcentratedinagricultureandlow-skilledservicesandisassociatedwithhigherpovertyattheprovinciallevel.Therealsoappeartobeproductivity,education,andsalarygapsbetweenformalandinformalworkers.Moreover,marketsarenotsegregatedasinformalfirmscompetestronglywithformalones.Finally,informal-ityseemstoposemacroeconomicchallengesastaxeffortsandfinancialsectordepthremainbelowtheaveragesforemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies. ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatihapsari@worldbank.org;syu2@worldbank.org;upape@worldbank.org;wmansour@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam InformalityinIndonesia:Levels,Trends,andFeatures Authors:IndiraMaulaniHapsari,ShuYu,UtzJohannPape,WaelMansourAllWorldBankStaff JELclassification: E2Consumption,Saving,Production,Investment,LaborMarkets,andInformalEconomy;O1EconomicDevelopment; O4EconomicGrowthandAggregate; J2DemandandSupplyofLaborProductivity;R1GeneralRegionalEconomics Keywords:Informality,Indonesia,Growth,Employment,Macroeconomics. Contents 1.Introduction3 2.AdaptingthemultidimensionalapproachofinformalityanalysistoIndonesia4 2.1Definitionsofinformality:GlobalvsIndonesia4 2.2Informalitydataandestimationmethodsdescription:Cross-countryandIndonesia-specificdatabases6 3.Levelsandtrendsofinformality:EMDEsvsIndonesia8 3.1InformalityinEMDEs8 3.2InformalityinIndonesia9 3.3InformalityattheregionallevelinIndonesia10 4.Policyanddevelopmentchallengesassociatedwithinformality:EMDEsvsIndonesia12 4.1Developmentchallengesassociatedwithinformality12 4.1.1Underdevelopment,povertyandproductivitygaps12 4.1.2Poorgovernance,unfriendlybusinessclimates,andheavy-handedregulationsleadingtohigh-costinvestment18 4.2Policychallengesassociatedwithpervasiveinformality19 4.3TheCOVID-19shockandtheinformalsectorinIndonesia22 5.Conclusion25 Reference27 Annex1:Examplesofcommondefinitionsofinformalityintheliterature31 Annex2:DefinitionsofinformalityfromSAKERNAS33 Annex3:Descriptionofinformalitydimensions34 Annex4:MIMICModelEstimationResults(1993-2021)36 Annex5:TheimpacttransmissionchannelsoftheCOVID-19shockontheinformalsector37 1.Introduction 1.Informalityisabroaddevelopmentchallengewithmultiplefeaturesanddifferentlayersofanalysis.Informalityisassociatedwithmanydevelopmentchallenges,suchaslowerproductivityfirms,lessprotectedworkers,andtaxleakages(Loayza2018;OhnsorgeandYu2021;Ulyssea2020).Atthesametime,theinformalsectorprovideslivelihoods,creativity,andbuffersagainstshocks.ThelatterwasexemplifiedbytherecentshockinducedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Despitethesignificanceofinformalityinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),itremainsdifficulttomeasureandstudy,mainlyduetothepresenceofmultipledefinitionsforinformalityandthelackofestimates(Elginetal.2021a).ThisisparticularlythecaseinIndonesiawherealimitednumberofstudieshavefocusedontheinformalsector.1 2.Againstthisbackdrop,thispaperusesseveralnoveldatasetsandvariousmodelingapproachestomea

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