The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Fishing Activities in the Philippines

THEIMPACTOFTROPICALCYCLONESONFISHINGACTIVITIESINTHEPHILIPPINES IlanNoy,MiloudLacheheb,andMadhaviPundit NO.691 August2023 ADBECONOMICSWORKINGPAPERSERIES ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries TheImpactofTropicalCyclonesonFishingActivitiesinthePhilippines TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBor itsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. IlanNoy,MiloudLacheheb,andMadhaviPunditNo.691|August2023 IlanNoy(ilan.noy@vuw.ac.nz)istheChairintheEconomicsofDisastersandClimateChangeand aprofessorattheSchoolofEconomicsandFinance,bothatVictoriaUniversityofWellington, NewZealand.MiloudLacheheb(miloud.lacheheb@vuw.ac.nz)isaPh.D.student ineconomicsattheWellingtonSchoolofBusinessandGovernment.MadhaviPundit(mpundit@adb.org)isasenioreconomistattheEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank. ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO) ©2023AsianDevelopmentBank 6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity,1550MetroManila,PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444 www.adb.org Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023. ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)PublicationStockNo.WPS230291-2 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS230291-2 TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. Pleasecontactpubsmarketing@adb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo. CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundathttp://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Note: Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars. ABSTRACT Inthispaper,weidentifythemainfishinggroundsandtracktheresponseoffishingvessels’activitytotropicalcyclones(TCs)inthePhilippines’ExclusiveEconomicZoneduring2012.WeusesatelliteimageryfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationtolocatefishingvesselsandidentifythemainfishinggrounds;inconjunctionwithdataonTCs'speedandtrajectoryfromtheInternationalBestTrackArchiveforClimateStewardshipdatabase.WeusekerneldensityfunctionstoidentifyfishinggroundsandVectorGeneralizedLinearModelandBayesianTime-VaryingParametertoassesstheimpactofTCspeedonthelocationoffishingvesselsduringandaftertheTC.OurquantificationsrevealtheoverallnegativeimpactofTCsonthenumberofactiveboatsduringand2daysaftertheTC.ThefishinggroundslocatedwithintheSibuyanSea,VisayanSea,andPanayGulfarethemostaffectedareas.DailyreductioninthecommercialfishingproductioninWesternVisayasaloneforeverydayaTCpassedthroughwasestimatedat7,800tonsperday,affectingmorethan188,000families. Keywords:fisheries,Philippines,tropicalcyclone,satelliteimagery,economicimpact JELcodes:Q22,Q54 TheauthorswouldliketothankPriscilleVillanuevaforhisvaluableresearchassistanceandtheparticipantsinADB’sEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartmentseminarfortheircommentsandinputsinthediscussions.ThegrantfundforthestudywasreceivedfromtheJapanFundforProsperousandResilientAsiaandthePacificfinancedbytheGovernmentofJapanthroughtheAsianDevelopmentBank. 1.Introduction Naturalhazardsarephenomenathatmayhaveasignificantimpactonpeople'slives,livelihoods,andwell-being.Tropicalcyclones(TCs)arethesecondmostdevastatingdisasteraftertheflood.Atotalof121eventswererecordedin2021comparedto102onaveragefrom2001to2020(CRED2021).Therewere1,876totaldeathsandmorethan17millionpeoplewereaffectedbythestormsin2021,whichamountedto$137.7billioninlosses(CRED2021).ThePhilippinesisinthetop10ofthemostvulnerablenationstodisasters(UnitedNationsUniversityetal.2014).ThecountryislocatedwithintheTCs’intensityarea(Cardenasetal.2015),facinganaverageof20TCsayear.1Forinstance,TCRaiinDecember2021caused457deathsanda