Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade

June2023 UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService Oilseeds:WorldMarketsandTrade ArgentinaRampsUpSoybeanImportsfromParaguayandBrazil ArgentinaSoybeanImports 10 Oct-AprMay-Sep 8 MillionMT 6 4 2 0 2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Oct-SepMarketingYear Source:ArgentinaNationalInstituteofStatistics DuetotheseveredroughtinArgentina,soybeanproductionisdownanaddition2.0milliontonsthismonthto25.0million,thelowestlevelinover2decades.Whileproductionisforecastdown43percentfrom2021/22,crushisonlyprojectedtobedown23percent,mainlyduetostrongdemandfromArgentinecrushers.Monthlycrushhasbeenslowerthanpastyears,butcrushershavebeenabletoprocuresoybeansdueto“soydollar”exchangeratepoliciesthatincentivizedfarmersellingearlierintheyearandstrongimportsofsoybeansoverthepastfewmonths.Throughthefirst4monthsof2023,Argentinahasimported3.0milliontonsfromneighboringcountries,predominantlyParaguayandBrazil,elevatingforecastOctober-Septemberimportstoarecord8.7million. 3.0 MillionMT 2.0 1.0 0.0 SoybeanExportstoArgentina 201820192020202120222023 Paraguay(Jan-Apr)Brazil(Jan-May) FortunatelyforArgentinecrushers,thereareampleexportablesuppliesinneighboringcountries.Typically,ParaguayisthelargestsupplierofsoybeanstoArgentinaandhasalreadyshippedarecord2.6milliontonsbetweenJanuary-April2023.Paraguayexportablesuppliesareupthisyearduetoamorethandoubledcropfromlastyear’sdrought,reducedexportstoRussiasincethestartofthewarinUkraine,andreducedimportdemandfromBrazil.Likewise,calendaryear exportsfromBrazilthroughMayareatanall-timehighduetorecordproduction. InadditiontoParaguayandBrazil,ArgentinaisalsoimportingsoybeansatarecordpacefromBolivia,whohasnottraditionallybeenasignificantexporterofsoybeans.GrowingproductionandArgentinedemandhaveboosted2023exportsthroughApril2023above130,000tons.UruguayistraditionallyaminorsoybeansuppliertoArgentinecrushersbutwillhavelimitedexportablesuppliesthisyearasproductionhasalsobeendecimatedbydrought.Whileitishighlyatypical,theUnitedStatesshipped 2.0milliontonstoArgentinain2018/19duringapreviousdrought,however,recordsuppliesinBrazilreducethelikelihoodthatArgentinawillneedtosourcesoybeansoutsideofSouthAmericatosatisfycrushdemand. ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard/USDA Foremailsubscription,clickheretoregister:https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new MARKETFEATURES ThailandPalmOilExportsUpin2022/23 Thailandisnowforecastasthethirdlargestexporterofpalmoilin2022/23withshipmentsforecastat900,000tons.ExportsfromThailandaccountforlessthan2percentofglobalpalmoiltradebuthaveincreasedinrecentyearsongrowingshipmentstoIndia.Sofar,Thailandhasaccountedfor10percentofIndiapalmoilimportsin2022/23,upfromjust1percentin2019/20.TheincreaseinThailand-sourcedpalmoilstartedin2021/22,ayearwhenMalaysiaandIndonesiahadchallengesgettingdomesticproductiontoexportmarkets.Theproblemsfacedbythesecountries’palmindustryenabledThailandtocapture10percentmarketshareinIndiain2021/22and,givenexportstodate,thismarketshareappearsstablein2022/23. ThailandPalmOilProductionandExports ExportsProduction 3.5 3.0 MillionMT 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Thailandpalmoilexportsin2023/24areforecasttofallasThailandisexpectedtoutilizemorepalmoildomestically,consistentwiththeGovernmentofThailand’sprioritytomaintainamplecookingoilsuppliesandtheresumptionofafirmB7blendingmandateforbiodiesel.Overthelast2years,Thailandhasvariedtheirblendingmandateforbiodieselduetohighpricesforpalmoil.ThestatedpolicyisareturntoB7blending,butifpricesofpalmoilrisetolevelsseenin2021/22,themandatemaychangetoalowertargetratetoensureamplecookingoilsupplies. PROJECTIONFOR2023/24 Global2023/24oilseedproductionforecastisunchangedat671milliontonsasreductionsinChinasunflowerseed,Australiarapeseed,andMalaysiapalmkernelarefullyoffsetbygainsforEUrapeseedandU.S.cottonseed.OilseedexportsareloweredduetoreducedAustraliarapeseedexports.GlobalvegetableoiltradeisslightlyloweronreducedArgentinasoybeanoilandlowerMalaysiapalmoilexports.GlobalmealexportsaredownslightlyonreductionsinArgentinaandEUsoybeanmealandMalaysiapalmkernelmealexports.Globaloilseedstocksareupmorethan 1milliontons,primarilyonlargerBrazilandU.S.soybeanstocks.TheprojectedU.S.season-averagefarmpriceforsoybeansisunchangedat$12.10perbushel. PROJECTIONFOR2022/23 Global2022/23oilseedproductionisforecastat627milliontons,unchangedfromMay.AlargerBrazilsoybeancrop,Chinarapeseedcrop,andArgentinasunflowerseedcropmostlyoffsetlowerArgentinasoybeanandChinasunflowerseedproduction.OilseedtradeisupslightlyonhigherArgentinasoybeanandAustraliarapeseedexportsmorethanoffsettinglowerU.S.soybeanandUkrainesunflowerseedexports.GlobaloilseedcrushisdownasreductionsinArgentinasoybeancrushareonlypartiallyoffsetbyhigherChinarapeseedandBrazilsoybeancrush.GlobalvegetableoiltradeisdownthismonthasreductionstoMalaysiapalmoilandArgentinaandEUsoybeanoilexportsareonlypartiallyoffsetbyhigherexportsinBrazilsoybeanoil,Thailandpalmoil,andUkrainesunflowerseedoil.GlobalmealtradeisupmarginallythismonthashigherIndiarapeseedmealandBrazil,India