美联储货币政策报告（2023年6月）（英）美国联邦储备系统理事会

Foruseat11:00a.m.EDTJune16,2023 MONETARYPOLICYREPORT June16,2023 BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem LETTEROFTRAnSMITTAL BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem Washington,D.C.,June16,2023ThePresidentoftheSenate TheSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentatives TheBoardofGovernorsispleasedtosubmititsMonetaryPolicyReportpursuanttosection2BoftheFederalReserveAct. Sincerely, JeromeH.Powell,Chair STATEMEnTOnLOngER-RungOALSAndMOnETARyPOLIcySTRATEgy AdoptedeffectiveJanuary24,2012;asreaffirmedeffectiveJanuary31,2023 TheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)isfirmlycommittedtofulfillingitsstatutorymandatefromtheCongressofpromotingmaximumemployment,stableprices,andmoderatelong-terminterestrates.TheCommitteeseekstoexplainitsmonetarypolicydecisionstothepublicasclearlyaspossible.Suchclarityfacilitateswell-informeddecisionmakingbyhouseholdsandbusinesses,reduceseconomicandfinancialuncertainty,increasestheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicy,andenhancestransparencyandaccountability,whichareessentialinademocraticsociety. Employment,inflation,andlong-terminterestratesfluctuateovertimeinresponsetoeconomicandfinancialdisturbances.Monetarypolicyplaysanimportantroleinstabilizingtheeconomyinresponsetothesedisturbances.TheCommittee’sprimarymeansofadjustingthestanceofmonetarypolicyisthroughchangesinthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate.TheCommitteejudgesthatthelevelofthefederalfundsrateconsistentwithmaximumemploymentandpricestabilityoverthelongerrunhasdeclinedrelativetoitshistoricalaverage.Therefore,thefederalfundsrateislikelytobeconstrainedbyitseffectivelowerboundmorefrequentlythaninthepast.Owinginparttotheproximityofinterestratestotheeffectivelowerbound,theCommitteejudgesthatdownwardriskstoemploymentandinflationhaveincreased.TheCommitteeispreparedtouseitsfullrangeoftoolstoachieveitsmaximumemploymentandpricestabilitygoals. Themaximumlevelofemploymentisabroad-basedandinclusivegoalthatisnotdirectlymeasurableandchangesovertimeowinglargelytononmonetaryfactorsthataffectthestructureanddynamicsofthe labormarket.Consequently,itwouldnotbeappropriatetospecifyafixedgoalforemployment;rather,theCommittee’spolicydecisionsmustbeinformedbyassessmentsoftheshortfallsofemploymentfromitsmaximumlevel,recognizingthatsuchassessmentsarenecessarilyuncertainandsubjecttorevision.TheCommitteeconsidersawiderangeofindicatorsinmakingtheseassessments. Theinflationrateoverthelongerrunisprimarilydeterminedbymonetarypolicy,andhencetheCommitteehastheabilitytospecifyalonger-rungoalforinflation.TheCommitteereaffirmsitsjudgmentthatinflationattherateof2percent,asmeasuredbytheannualchangeinthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures,ismostconsistentoverthelongerrunwiththeFederalReserve’sstatutorymandate.TheCommitteejudgesthatlonger-terminflationexpectationsthatarewellanchoredat2percentfosterpricestabilityandmoderatelong-terminterestratesandenhancetheCommittee’sabilitytopromotemaximumemploymentinthefaceofsignificanteconomicdisturbances.Inordertoanchorlonger-terminflationexpectationsatthislevel,theCommitteeseekstoachieveinflationthataverages2percentovertime,andthereforejudgesthat,followingperiodswheninflationhasbeenrunningpersistentlybelow2percent,appropriatemonetarypolicywilllikelyaimtoachieveinflationmoderatelyabove2percentforsometime. Monetarypolicyactionstendtoinfluenceeconomicactivity,employment,andpriceswithalag.Insettingmonetarypolicy,theCommitteeseeksovertimetomitigateshortfallsofemploymentfromtheCommittee’sassessmentofitsmaximumlevelanddeviationsofinflationfromitslonger-rungoal.Moreover,sustainablyachievingmaximumemploymentandpricestabilitydependsonastablefinancialsystem.Therefore,theCommittee’spolicydecisionsreflectitslonger-rungoals,itsmedium-termoutlook,anditsassessmentsofthebalanceofrisks,includingriskstothefinancialsystemthatcouldimpedetheattainmentoftheCommittee’sgoals. TheCommittee’semploymentandinflationobjectivesaregenerallycomplementary.However,undercircumstancesinwhichtheCommitteejudgesthattheobjectivesarenotcomplementary,ittakesintoaccounttheemploymentshortfallsandinflationdeviationsandthepotentiallydifferenttimehorizonsoverwhichemploymentandinflationareprojectedtoreturntolevelsjudgedconsistentwithitsmandate. TheCommitteeintendstoreviewtheseprinciplesandtomakeadjustmentsasappropriateatitsannualorganizationalmeetingeachJanuary,andtoundertakeroughlyevery5yearsathoroughpublicreviewofitsmonetarypolicystrategy,tools,andcommunicationpractices. cOnTEnTS Summary1 RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments1 MonetaryPolicy3 SpecialTopics3 Part1:RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments5 DomesticDevelopments5 FinancialDevelopments28 InternationalDevelopments34 Part2:MonetaryPolicy39 Part3:SummaryofEconomicProjections47 Abbreviations65 ListofBoxes DevelopmentsinEmploymentandEarningsacrossDemographicGroups11 RecentDevelopmentsinBankLendingConditions21 DevelopmentsRelatedtoFinancialStability31 DevelopmentsintheFederalReserve’sBalanceSheetandMoneyMarkets42 MonetaryPolicyRulesintheCurrentEnvironment44 ForecastUncertainty62 Note:Thisreportreflectsinformationthatwaspubliclyavailableasof