人民币汇率周报：人民币贬破7.1后，未来该何去何从？

6 5 I2023 7.1 - 20111290 7.10 531 7.1 9:30 PMI 4 6 6 104 5 5-6 65-69 6.94-7.13 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1.............................................................................................1 1.2.........................................................................................2 1.2.1....................................................................................................2 1.2.2....................................................................................................3 1.3...........................................................................................................3 2.................................................................................................4 2.1-.................................................................................4 2.2.....................................................................................4 2.2.1.............................................................................................4 2.2.2.............................................................................................5 2.2.3.........................................................................................6 2.2.4.........................................................................................7 2.3................................................................................................8 2.3.1..........................................................................8 2.3.2.......................................................................8 3..........................................................................................9 3.1..................................................................................9 3.2........................................................................14 ................................................................................................16 ..................................................................................................16 .........................................................................................................17 ....................................................................................................................18 .................................................................................................................19 .............................................................................................................19 .................................................................................................................20 1. ( BIS 7.0760 7.0965 7.0575 7.0939 0.253% USDCNY7.0547 7.1179 7.0750 7.0750 0.288% USDCNH7.0675 7.1176 7.0798 7.0893 0.308% 140.5398 140.2843 138.7589 139.7816 -0.539% 1.0713 1.0751 1.0653 1.0723 0.092% 1.2339 1.2536 1.2362 1.2467 1.033% 104.2338 104.2689 103.5740 104.0495 -0.177% CFETS98.78 —— —— 98.14 -0.648% 103.13 —— —— 102.49 -0.621% 94.61 —— —— 94.07 -0.571% 1.1 2023529-62 CFETSBIS SDR 6216:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 7.10 531 7.1 9:30 PMI 4 6 6 1045 5-6 1.1.12023529-62 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.15 7.10 7.05 7.00 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.75 6.70 6.65 2023-02-032023-03-032023-04-032023-05-03 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 100.00 : Wind 1.2 1.2.1 65-69 6.94-7.13 () PMI 1.2.2 7.05 1.3 2. - 2.1 627.0937179 2.1.1 1 2 179 509 404 -734 404 RefinitivBloomberg 198 68 138 2.2.1 2.2.2 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 (0.020) (0.040) 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) 2022/8/10 2022/9/10 2022/10/10 2022/11/10 2022/12/10 2023/1/10 2023/2/10 2023/3/10 2023/4/10 2023/5/10 (0.14) 5 (0.060) USDCNY16:30 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 62 3 680 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 = - 3 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 2019-12-122020-12-122021-12-122022-12-12 : iFinD 2.2.2 4 71% 72% 3%4 55 8% 2.2.4 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 -100.00 -200.00 -300.00 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 -400.00 : Delta 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 -100.00 -200.00 -300.00 : -400.00 : : : iFinD 2.2.3 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 2.2.5 7.600.08 7.40 0.06 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) 6.20 2019-06-062020-06-062021-06-062022-06-06 CNH-CNYUSDCNHUSDCNY iFinD 2.2.4 62NDF6.9155 347 USDCNY25Delta (0.08) 2.2.6NDF 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 0.0000 (0.0500) (0.1000) (0.1500) (0.2000) (0.2500) 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% 0.8600 0.7600 0.6600 0.5600 0.4600 0.3600 0.2600 0.1600 0.0600 0.6000 0.5000 0.4000 0.3000 0.2000 0.1000 0.0000 -0.1000 1M3M NDF(1Y)-USDCNH(6M9M USDCNH1Y1D NDF(1Y)1W BloombergBl