人民币汇率周报：这次人民币破7有何不同？

- 20111290 7.10 104 529 -6 7 2 6.93-7.11 Z0017101 I2023 7 529 1....................................................................................1 1.1......................................................................................1 1.2..................................................................................2 1.2.1..........................................................................................2 1.2.2..........................................................................................2 1.3.....................................................................................................5 2...........................................................................................6 2.1-..........................................................................6 2.2...............................................................................6 2.2.1...................................................................................6 2.2.2...................................................................................7 2.2.3...............................................................................8 2.2.4...............................................................................9 2.3........................................................................................10 2.3.1...............................................................10 2.3.2...........................................................10 3..................................................................................12 3.1.........................................................................12 3.2..................................................................13 ................................................................................................15 ...........................................................................................15 ..................................................................................................16 .............................................................................................................17 ..........................................................................................................18 ......................................................................................................18 .................................................................................................................19 1 ( BIS 7.0356 7.0760 7.0157 7.0760 0.574% USDCNY7.0235 7.0686 7.0304 7.0547 0.444% USDCNH7.0544 7.0829 7.0424 7.0675 0.186% 137.7102 140.5398 138.6531 140.5398 2.055% 1.0819 1.0806 1.0713 1.0713 -0.975% 1.2461 1.2424 1.2323 1.2339 -0.978% 103.2044 104.2338 103.2408 104.2338 0.997% CFETS98.82 —— —— 98.78 -0.040% 103.26 —— —— 103.13 -0.126% 94.85 —— —— 94.61 -0.253% 1.1 2023522-526 CFETSBIS SDR 52616:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 7.10 104 1.1.12023522-526 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 Wind 1.2 1.2.1 529 -62 6.93-7.11 7 6 5 6 6 PCE 61 92CPI 511526 7 3 5 6FOMC 62 613 CPI Bloomberg 1.2.2 PMI Wind 1.2.3 Wind 1.3 7 1.4 2 - 2.1 526 7.0760404 2.1.1 1 2 404 194 223 -13 875 RefinitivBloomberg 587 122 166 2.2.1 2.2.2 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 526 3 442 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 = - 3 iFinD 2.2.2 4 8% 71% 72% 3%4 55 2.2.4 500.007.40 400.00 300.00 7.20 200.007.00 100.00 0.00 6.80 -100.006.60 -200.00 -300.00 6.40 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 -400.006.20 银行结售汇差额:当月值银行代客远期净结汇:当月值即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 iFinD 2.2.4 526 NDF 387USDCNY 6.8808 25Delta1 113 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% BloombergBloomberg 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.1 526 2306 7.0688 618 -13 272 2.3.2 BloombergBloomberg 2.3.2 526 2306 7.0626 62 49 274 2.3.3 2.3.4 BloombergBloomberg 3 6 6 5 Markit50PMI13 13 PMI 48.5 50 55.1 6 52.5 54.5 PMI 53 3.1 3.1.1 1. 2. 3. 5 4.1%68.3 66.5 68.3 65.6 4. PCE 6 9 1. 2. 5 -17.4 -17 -17.5 3. 5 PMI 44.6 46 36 45.8 PMI55.9 56.2PMI5 55.5 53.3 PMI 42.9 46.1 3 5 PMI 1.3 PCE GDP 0.2 0.15 5% 20 22.9 24.5 1.7 22.5 4. 3.1.1 1.5 50 4 13% 1. 5 PMI 4 55.5 53.9 47.8 4 54.6 55.1 PMI55.9 54.9 48 55.1 PMI 4 1. 5 10 49.5PMIPMI PMI 50.8 2022 50 56.3 55.4 52.9 54.9 25 4.75% 2006 10 1. 5 20 7 14 300 2. IMF IMF GDP 0.4% 0.7 3. 4. 25 5.5% 200810 Wind / PMI 49.2 51.4 3.2 3.2.1 2023.05.31-06.02 / 1:00 - - PMI 56.4 - 09:30 PMI 54.4 - 31 16:30 - - 5 20:00 CPI (%) 0.4 0.6 20:50 - - 21:00-- 3.2.1 2023.05.31-06.02 21:15 - - 21:45 PMI 48.6 - 22:00 JOLTs 9.590M9.775M 0:20 - - 0:30 - - 09:45 PMI 49.5 50.3 15:55 PMI (%) 42.9 - 16:00 Markit PMI 44.6 - / / 16:30 Markit PMI 46.9 - 1 CPI (%) 6 ISM 50.2 - 17:00 6.5 - 7.0 7.0 21:45 Markit PMI 48.5 - ISM PMI 47.1 47.0 2