聚酯产业链周报

聚酯产业链周报 能化投资研究部隋斐 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017025 银河能化微信公众号 230403-230410 第一章 综述 1 第二章 估值 5 第三章 供需 20 第一章综述 1.1产业链周度数据&观点 1.1产业链周度数据&观点 PTA 上周PTA工厂开工回升，聚酯开工回落，pta社会库存小幅上升，码头库存压力缓解，05合约基差走弱显著。清明节前后下游及终端企业停机放假影响下上周终端织机加弹开工下降明显，终端面临订单下滑的压力。4月来看聚酯减产有限，在聚酯大厂负荷稳定下PTA供需紧平衡，5-6月开始出现累库，TA前期支撑上涨的驱动减弱，现实转弱，预期偏强。价格预计呈高位震荡走势。 MEG 上周乙二醇供需双弱，港口库存环比下降4.1万吨至108.2万吨。乙二醇国内供应回升的速度较慢，聚酯及终端开工走弱。4月聚酯工厂减产有限，乙二醇供需偏紧平衡，5-6月份预计小幅累库，下半年在乙二醇新增投产进入尾声以及金九银十旺季下9月合约上乙二醇港口库存有望回落，乙二醇空配的角色可能已经悄然改变。 PF 上周短纤工厂开工回落，短纤产销延续弱势，工厂库存回升。下游纯涤纱开工稳中偏弱，纱厂成品库存继续累积，高于历史同期水平。清明节后终端面临订单下滑的压力，短纤工厂亏损下成本支撑较强，供需驱动偏弱，短期价格预计震荡走势。品种强弱排序：EG>TA>PF 第一章 综述 1 第二章 估值 5 第三章 供需 20 第二章估值 2.1PX 2.2PTA 2.3MEG 2.4聚酯 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PX-BLENT亚洲 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 PX-MX(韩国) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PX-NAP亚洲 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 PX理论利润 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) 2017201820192020202120222023 2500 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) (1500) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) (600) (700) PX韩国-美国 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) 亚洲甲苯调油价差 (800) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 亚洲甲苯歧化利润 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) (200) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 (200) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 亚洲歧化-调油 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 PTA-PX现货加工费 250 200 150 100 50 0 (50) (100) PTA印度-中国 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 (500) 2017201820192020202120222023 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 PTA-原油现货利润 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 (1000) PTA-石脑油现货利润 (1000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 PTA-PX理论利润 (2000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 无烟煤 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 甲醇江苏出罐价 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 乙烯东北亚 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) (600) MEG内外盘价差 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 EO-1.25EG MEG华东-华南 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 (1000) (2000) 2017201820192020 202120222023 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 200 150 100 50 0 (50) (100) (150) (200) 300 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) (600) MEG东北亚-东南亚 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 MEG中国-西北欧 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) MEG中国-美国 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 (2000) (4000) MEG油制利润 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 MEG乙烯单体制利润 3000 2000 1000 0 (1000) (2000) (3000) MTO制MEG利润 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 MEG煤制利润（内蒙古） 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) (1500) (2000) (2500) (3000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 (1000) (2000) (3000) (4000) 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 1000 800 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) (600) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) 聚酯切片利润 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 涤纶长丝平均利润 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) (1000) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) 聚酯瓶片利润 2017201820192020 202120222023 涤纶短纤利润 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020202120222023 (600) 2017201820192020 202120222023 第一章 综述 1 第二章 估值 5 第三章 供需 20 第三章供需 3.1上游 3.2中游 3.3下游 3.1上游-PX4-5月份检修依然集中PXN价差维持高位 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% PX开工率 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020202120222023 PTA开工率 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PX-NAP亚洲 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020 202120222023 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020202120222023 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% PTA开工率 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020202120222023 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 (500) PTA-PX现货加工费 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2017201820192020202120222023 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 PTA社会库存 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/11