作者:曹晓婧简奖平 、邮箱:research@fecr.com.cn 国有企业净融资大幅增加,二级市场到期收益率下行 ——2023年2月信用债市场运行报告 相关研究报告: 1.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》,2023.2.14 2.《2022年12月信用债市场运行报告》,2023.1.13 3.《2022年11月信用债市场运行报告》,2022.12.14 4.《2022年10月信用债市场运行报告》,2022.11.15 5.《2022年9月信用债市场运行报告》,2022.10.17 摘要 发行方面,2月份信用债共发行8,865.55亿元,发行规模环比增加。其中,发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据,分别发行4,398.50亿 元、2,057.34亿元和1,821.60亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有150只, 涉及金额424.00亿元。 净融资方面,2月份信用债净融资为3,286.62亿元,延续上月增长态势。10个重点行业中建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多,净融资额为1,792.76亿元;AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为1,394.80亿元、1,336.13亿元和521.79亿元;国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为3,285.00亿元和1.62 亿元;城投债和非城投债净融资分别为2,191.61亿元和1,095.01亿元。 到期压力方面,截至2月末,未来6个月将有51,958.74亿元信用债到期,到期压力迁移系数为0.94,较上月末增加0.10。分行业看,大部分重点行业信用债未来到期压力环比上升。分企业性质看,国有企业与非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比上升。城投债与非城投债比较方面,城投债与非城投债到期压力均环比上升。 到期收益率方面,2月份中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均下行。其中3年期的中短期票据到期收益率下降幅度小于5年期的中短期票据到期收益率。 信用利差方面,2月份重点行业债券信用利差均收窄。不同评级城投债信用利差均下行,AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差分别下行34.74BP、47.80BP和57.30BP。不同评级城投债信用利差所处百分位数较上月均下降,AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差所处2015年以来历史百分位数分别为14%、42%和45%。 2月份,多项政策出台或将影响信用债市场。展望未来,地产债方面,尽管部分受困房企有望从相关政策获得一定流动性支持,团体购房贷款等创新金融产品的推出有望加速存量商品房去化进程,但当前行业优质资产较少、项目未来回款风险较大,或将导致募集资金难度较大,仍需继续防范尾部房企债券风险;城投债方面,近期中央再次发文强调“化解地方政府隐性债务风险”“加强地方政府融资平台公司治理”“防范地方国有企事业单位‘平台化’”等政策主基调不变,短期内城投债风险暴露可能性依旧较低,但长期仍需防范弱资质城投企业市场化后的风险。 Author:CaoXiaojing,JianJiangpingE-mail:research@fecr.com.cn Thenetfinancingofstate-ownedcompaniesincreasedsignificantly,andtheyieldtomaturityinthesecondarymarketdeclined ——February2023China'scorporatebondsmarketoperationreport Summary IntermsoftheissuanceofChina’scorporatebonds,atotalof886.555billionyuanofcorporatebondswereissuedinFebruary,andtheissuancescaledecreasedmonth-on-month.Amongthem,theshort-termfinancingbills,corporatebondsandmedium-termnoteswiththelargestissuancevolumewere439.850billionyuan,205.734billionyuanand182.160billionyuanrespectively.Therewere150corporatebondscancelledorpostponedinthismonth,involvinganamountof42.400billionyuan. Intermsofnetfinancing,thenetfinancingofChina’scorporatebondsinFebruarywas328.662billionyuan,continuingthegrowthtrendofthepreviousmonth.Amongthe10keyindustries,thebuildingdecorationindustryhasachievedthemostnetfinancing,withanetfinancingamountof179.276billionyuan.ThenetfinancingofAAA,AA+andAAlevelentitieswas 139.480billionyuan,133.613billionyuanand52.179billionyuanrespectively.Thenetfinancingofstate-ownedenterprisesandnon-state-ownedenterpriseswas328.500billionyuanand0.162billionyuanrespectively.ThenetfinancingofLocalGovernmentFinancingVehicle(LGFV)bondsandnon-LGFVbondswas219.161billionyuanand109.501billionyuanrespectively. Intermsofmaturitypressure,asoftheendofFebruary,5,195.874billionyuanofChina’scorporatebondswillmatureinthenextsixmonths,andthematuritypressuremigrationcoefficientwas0.94,up0.10fromtheendofpreviousmonth.Fromtheperspectiveofindustries,thematuritypressureofmostkeyindustriesincreasedmonth-on-month.Fromtheperspectiveofenterpriseownership,thematuritypressureofstate-ownedcompanies’bondsandnon-state-ownedcompanies’bondsbothincreasedmonth-on-month.FromtheperspectiveofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbonds,thematuritypressureofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbondsbothincreasedmonth-on-month. Intermsofyieldtomaturity,theyieldstomaturityofshortandmedium-termnotesandLGFVbondsinthesecondarymarketbothdecreasedinFebruary.Amongthem,theyieldtomaturityof3-yearshort-termbillsfelllessthanthatof5-yearshorttermbills. Intermsofcreditspreads,thecreditspreadsofallkeyindustriesnarrowedinFebruary.CreditspreadsofLGFVbondswithdifferentratingsalldecreased,andthecreditspreadsofAAA,AA+andAALGFVbondsdecreasedby34.74BP,47.80BPand57.30BPrespectively.ThepercentilesofthecreditspreadsofLGFVbondswithdifferentratingsdroppedfromthepreviousmonth,AAA,AA+andAALGFVbondspreadsareathistoriclevelsof14%,42%and45%since2015respectively. InFebruary,theintroductionofanumberofpoliciesmayaffectthecreditbondmarket.Lookingahead,intermsofrealestatebonds,althoughsomedistressedrealestatecompaniesareexpectedtoobtaincertainliquiditysupportfromrelevantpolicies,andthelaunchofinnovativefinancialproductssuchasgrouphomepurchaseloansisexpectedtoacceleratetheprocessofsellingcommercializedbuildings,therearecurrentlyfewhigh-qualityassetsintheindustryandtheriskoffutureprojectsrepaymentisrelativelyhigh,whichmayleadtogreaterdifficultyinraisingfunds,andtheriskoftail-endrealestatebondsstillneedtobeprevented;intermsofLGFVbonds,thecentralgovernmenthasrecentlyissueddocumentsemphasizingthepolicythemesof"resolvinghiddendebtrisksoflocalgovernments","strengtheningthegovernanceoflocalgovernmentfinancingplatforms"and"preventingthe‘platformization’oflocalstate-ownedenterprisesandpublicinstitutions",theriskexposurepossibilityofLGFVbondisstilllowintheshortrun,buttherisksofweaklyqualifiedlocalgovernmentfinancingenterprisesaftermarketizationstillneedtobepreventedinthelongrun. 目录 一、信用债市场运行2 (一)一级市场2 1.信用债净融资规模延续上月增长态势2 2.建筑装饰行业净融资贡献最大,城投债净融资环比增加3 3.信用债总体到期压力环比上升7 (二)二级市场9 1.信用债成交活跃度环比上升,券种以公司债、中期票据为主9 2.中短期票据和城投债到期收益率均下行10 3.重点行业债券信用利差整体收窄,不同评级城投债信用利差均下行11 (三)信用债市场特别关注14 1.有3家主体旗下4只信用债发生逾期14 2.发生4次主体评级下调14 3.有150只债券取消或推迟发行15 二、总结与展望15 一、信用债市场运行 (一)一级市场 1.信用债