保护亚洲的海底网络：美国的利益和战略选择

CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 1THE ISSUEMore than 1 million kilometers of submarine cables traversing the ocean floor, each about as wide as a garden hose, transmit up to 99 percent of international data, underpinning global trade and communication. This vital digital infrastructure faces myriad threats, from earthquakes and typhoons to fishing nets and saboteurs. The United States derives significant advantages from its centrality in Asia’s subsea cables, which contribute up to $169 billion to the U.S. economy annually and could benefit more U.S. workers and businesses as demand for digital products and services grows globally. But realizing those benefits will require the United States to step up its policy engagement on Asia’s cable networks, which are changing with China’s rise, the emergence of new regional hubs, and new transpacific routes designed to reduce risks and increase network resiliency.APRIL 2022CSIS BRIEFSBy Matthew P. Goodman and Matthew WaylandU.S. INTERESTSSUBSEA CABLES ARE INCREASINGLY VITALThe United States derives significant benefits from its leading position in global subsea cable networks, which carry the vast majority of voice and internet traffic between continents. There are approximately 436 cables in service around the world, and dozens of them land on U.S. coasts. These systems support a wide and growing range of U.S. economic activities and have become even more important to workers and businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic.1The early stages of the pandemic led to a surge in internet traffic that subsea cables accommodated, accelerating the digitization of modern economies. Connected communities were able to adapt and even benefit from shifts to online work, education, healthcare, and other activities. Students and teachers moved their lessons online, physicians and patients embraced new applications for remote consultation and treatment, and businesses adopted new tools for meeting and collaborating virtually. Digitalization will intensify with the arrival of 5G and the expansion of the Internet of Things, which will combine to unlock new possibilities in U.S. manufacturing. For example, the auto industry is using advanced sensors and real-time analytics to increase connectivity among vehicles, users, and their surroundings. Leading manufacturers are also using digitalization to improve logistics and production planning, allowing for greater visibility and control of their global supply chains. Tying these activities together across continents requires a resilient network of subsea cables and the free flow of data across them.ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SUBSEA CABLESThe full contribution of subsea cables to the U.S. economy is difficult to precisely estimate.2 As one industry expert put it, “Asking how important subsea cables are to a digitally-driven economy is like asking a fish how important water is.” One very rough, back-of-the-envelope method is to consider the size of the U.S. digital economy, which hinges on internet traffic, and the percentages of Securing Asia’s Subsea NetworkU.S. Interests and Strategic Options CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 2traffic that are routed internationally and carried by subsea cables. Doing so estimates the contribution of subsea cables to the U.S. economy at nearly $649 billion in 2019, or about 3 percent of U.S. GDP. Of that total, U.S. traffic routed through Asia is responsible for roughly $169 billion. Another telling indicator, depicted in Figure 1, is the contribution of U.S. digital exports, which rely on subsea cables and totaled $520 billion in 2020. The U.S. financial sector, which is responsible for an estimated 6.7 million jobs and 7.5 percent of GDP, relies on subsea cables to support $10 trillion in daily transactions. Subsea cables also enhance the United States’ attractiveness as a financial hub. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank found that the large number of international cables landing in the United Kingdom increased the number of financial transactions in London by as much as one-third, strengthening its position as a financial center. With a high concentration of cable landings, New York and New Jersey enjoy similar network effects.The rapid digitization of economies is also opening up new opportunities for U.S. businesses to export. Services trade—spanning advertising, insurance, travel arrangement and management, accounting, auditing, and consulting—is increasingly digital. In 2020, U.S. digital exports of services enabled by information and communications technology totaled nearly $520 billion, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for $122 billion (23.4 percent). Digital exports comprised nearly 88 percent of the total U.S. service trade surplus in 2020. Today, U.S. workers and businesses are just scratching the surface of digital export opportunities. Just 1 in every 20 U.S. providers of business services exports, compared to 1 in 4 U.S manufacturers. Increasing U.S. digital exports w