divergent prospects and new imperatives in the global recovery

PhotobyTomaszSzykulski KearneyAlum GlobalCities:divergentprospectsandnewimperativesintheglobalrecovery 2021GlobalCitiesReport Inthewakeofayearofdevastationanduncertainty,globalcitiesprovedtheirresilience.Now,astheyseektoleadtheglobalrecovery,citiesmustdefineanewapproachtoglobalismwithresilienceandurbanwell-beingatthecore. Executivesummary The2021GlobalCitiesReportcapturestheimpactofCOVID-19andtherelatedlockdownmeasuresoncitiesand,forsome,thebeginningsofanuneven recovery.Whilehistoricallyleadingglobalcitieswerebymanymeasureshithardestbythepandemic,theyalsodemonstratedtheirresilienceandadaptivecapacity.Ouranalysisindicatestheyarenowbestpositionedforrecovery,withtheirenduringglobalconnectivityservingasafoundationforrebuildingandadaptingtoachangedworld. Theresilienceofreigningglobalcities Inthisyear’sGlobalCitiesIndex(GCI)results,wesawcleardivergencesinthetrajectoriesofglobalcities.Thosethatweremostgloballyconnected,andoftenmostdependentontheirglobalconnectivityandinternationalcharacter,unsurprisinglywerefirsttobestruckbyCOVID-19.Theimpactofthepandemicisreflectedintheoveralldeclineintheabsolutescoresoftheseleadingcitiesinthisyear’sresults. Incontrast,incitiesthatweremorelimitedintheirglobalconnectivityandcross-borderinterdepen-dence,theimpactsofthepandemicwerelesssevere.Inmanycases,thesecitiesevenshowedimprovedscoresandrankings.Ouranalysissuggeststhatthisrelativeimprovementinrankingsisprimarilyafunctionofthedelayedimpactofthepandemicinmanyofthesecities. Despitetheoutsizedimpactofthepandemiconreigningcitiesinthisyear’sresults,theydemonstratedtheirresilience.NewYork,London,Paris,andTokyoretainedthetopfourpositionsintheIndex—onceagaindemonstratingtherobustnessoftheirdiversityofglobalstrengths(seefigure1).YettherewerechangesatthetopoftheIndex.LosAngelesbrokeintothetopfive,benefitingfromBeijing’sdeclineinthefaceofboththepandemicandthecomplexshiftsintheglobaltradelandscape. Figure1 Top10inthe2021GlobalCitiesIndex Source:Kearney2021GlobalCitiesReport City2021rank2020rankΔ2020–2021 NewYork 1 1 — London 2 2 — Paris 3 3 — Tokyo 4 4 — LosAngeles 5 7 +2 Beijing 6 5 –1 HongKong 7 6 –1 Chicago 8 8 — Singapore 9 9 — Shanghai 10 12 +2 2021GlobalCities:divergentprospectsandnewimperativesintheglobalrecovery1 Inthecomingyear,weexpectthedivergenceamongglobalcitiestowiden.Whileglobalcitiesthatarealreadyshowingsignsofeconomicrecoveryarelikelytocontinuetheirupwardtrends,lower-scoringandless-connectedglobalcitieswilllikelydropinourrankingsnextyearasthefulleffectofthepandemicisreflectedinthemetricsusedformeasurement,particularlygiventheunevendistributionofvaccinesaroundtheworld. Acrisisofpersonalwell-being Thisyear’sforward-lookingGlobalCitiesOutlook(GCO)highlightsthestrongknock-oneffectsthathealthcarequalityhasonthefutureviabilityofaglobalcity.Reflectingtheoverwhelmingimpactofthepandemic,thepersonalwell-beingmetricsarethebiggestpredictorsofchangeinoverallGCOscoresandrankings.Despiteanoveralldropinscoresasaresultofthepandemic,thecitiesholdingthetop10spotsstandlargelyunchanged.Londonretainsitstopspot,withParis,Munich,andAbuDhabieachrisingthreeplacestocomeinatsecond,third,andfourthrespectivelyandDublinroundingoutthetopfive(seefigure2).Regionally,wecontinuetoseeChinesecitiesontherise,asNorthAmericancitiesdecline—overtakenforthefirsttimebyEuropeancities. Globalcitiesleadinginrecovery GlobalcitiesarenowleadingtheglobalrecoveryfromCOVID-19.Theyaredoingsointhecontextofatransformedworldthatisopeninghistoricopportunitiesforthemcreateanext-generationrealizationofurbanliving—onecenteredonwell-beingandorientedbyresilience.Torealizethatfuture,cityleadersmustproactivelyaddressfivestrategicimperatives: —Wininthecompetitionforglobaltalent. —Embracetherapidlygrowingdigitaleconomy. —Ensureeconomicresiliencebybalancingglobal andlocalresources. —Adaptinthefaceofclimatechange. —Investinindividualandcommunitywell-being. Foreachofthese,wepresentevidenceandexamplesofhowtheyaredrivingprogressinenterprisingcitiesaroundtheworld. Figure2 Top10inthe2021GlobalCitiesOutlook Source:Kearney2021GlobalCitiesReport City2021rank2020rankΔ2020–2021 London 1 1 — Paris 2 5 +3 Munich 3 6 +3 AbuDhabi 4 7 +3 Dublin 5 10 +5 Stockholm 6 8 +2 Tokyo 7 4 –3 Toronto 8 2 –6 Sydney 9 12 +3 Singapore 10 3 –7 2021GlobalCities:divergentprospectsandnewimperativesintheglobalrecovery2 The2021GCIandGCO:therockyroadtourbanrecovery Thisyear’sGlobalCitiesReportreflectsthedynamicsofatumultuousyearinwhichcitylife—temporarilyfrozenacrosstheglobe—returnedinfitsandstarts.Thoughwehopetheeerilyquietcitystreetsthatcharacterizedtheearlyweeksandmonthsofthepandemicarebehindus,theCOVID-19virushasprovenadaptiveandresilient.Citiesandtheirresidentscontinuetostrugglewithnewvariantsandthedeepuncertaintyofthosethatmayemergeinthefuture.Restrictionsonmovement,socialdistancingpractices,andtherelatedeconomicdisarrayarestillwithus,althoughtheyaredistributedunevenly. Nevertheless,theunprecedentedglobaleffortsinvaccinedevelopmentandproductionhavehastenedareturntosomeformofnormalcy,partialandfragmentedasitis.As