2022年12月及Q4经济数据点评：经济弱企稳，2023年上半年经济动能有望持续恢复

1 wind wind wind 2022-12 2022-11 2022-10 2022-09 2022-08 2022-07 2022-06 2022-05 2022-04 2022-03 社零（当月同比） -1.80% -5.9% -0.5% 2.5% 5.4% 2.7% 3.1% -6.7% -11.1% -3.5% 社零：商品零售（当月同比） -0.10% -5.6% 0.5% 3.0% 5.1% 3.2% 3.9% -5.0% -9.7% -2.1% 社零：餐饮（当月同比） -14.10% -8.4% -8.1% -1.7% 8.4% -1.5% -4.0% -21.1% -22.7% -16.4% 固投（累计同比） 5.10% 5.3% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.8% 9.3% 制造业投资（累计同比） 9.10% 9.3% 9.7% 10.1% 10.0% 9.9% 10.4% 10.6% 12.2% 15.6% 基建投资（累计同比） 11.52% 11.7% 11.4% 11.2% 10.4% 9.6% 9.3% 8.2% 8.3% 10.5% 房地产开发投资（累计同比） -10% -9.8% -8.8% -8.0% -7.4% -6.4% -5.4% -4.0% -2.7% 0.7% 固投（当月同比） 3.10% 0.7% 5.0% 6.6% 6.5% 3.5% 5.8% 4.5% 1.8% 6.7% 制造业投资（当月同比） 7.40% 6.2% 6.9% 10.7% 10.6% 7.5% 9.9% 7.1% 6.4% 11.9% 基建投资（当月同比） 10.40% 13.9% 12.8% 16.3% 15.4% 11.5% 12.0% 7.9% 4.3% 11.8% 房地产开发投资（当月同比） -12.70% -19.9% -16.1% -12.1% -13.8% -12.1% -9.6% -7.7% -10.1% -2.4% �口金额（美元，当月同比） -9.90% -8.7% -0.3% 5.9% 7.2% 18.0% 17.1% 16.3% 3.5% 14.4% 进口金额（美元，当月同比） -7.50% -10.6% -0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.7% 工业增加值（当月同比） 1.30% 2.2% 5.0% 6.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% 0.7% -2.9% 5.0% 服务业生产指数（当月同比） -0.80% -1.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% -5.1% -6.1% -0.9% 制造业PMI 47 48.0 49.2 50.1 49.4 49.0 50.2 49.6 47.4 49.5 非制造业PMI 41.6 46.7 48.7 50.6 52.6 53.8 54.7 47.8 41.9 48.4 建筑业PMI54.4 55.4 58.2 60.2 56.5 59.2 56.6 52.2 52.7 58.1 服务业PMI39.4 45.1 47.0 48.9 51.9 52.8 54.3 47.1 40.0 46.7 wind wind 2021 wind wind wind 商品类别 2022-12 2022-11 2022-10 2022-09 2022-08 2022-07 2022-06 2022-05 2022-04 2022-03 2022-02 中西药品类 1.51% 0.30% 0.33% 0.36% 0.36% 0.31% 0.43% 0.40% 0.31% 0.45% 0.28% 汽车类 1.38% -1.06% 1.04% 3.92% 4.56% 2.84% 3.87% -4.82% -9.93% -2.30% 1.14% 粮油、食品类 1.11% 0.40% 0.91% 0.98% 0.90% 0.67% 0.91% 1.27% 1.03% 1.27% 0.97% 饮料类 0.09% -0.11% 0.07% 0.10% 0.12% 0.06% 0.04% 0.14% 0.10% 0.20% 0.21% 文化办公用品类 -0.01% -0.06% -0.05% 0.26% 0.19% 0.30% 0.28% -0.07% -0.11% 0.24% 0.25% 家具类 -0.07% -0.05% -0.08% -0.09% -0.10% -0.08% -0.08% -0.13% -0.15% -0.09% -0.06% 建筑及装潢材料类 -0.12% -0.13% -0.12% -0.11% -0.13% -0.11% -0.06% -0.10% -0.16% 0.01% 0.06% 通讯器材类 -0.16% -0.95% -0.44% 0.23% -0.17% 0.17% 0.31% -0.26% -0.81% 0.11% 0.21% 限额以上企业商品零售总额 -0.20% -5.70% 0.00% 6.60% 9.10% 7.50% 8.80% -5.30% -13.30% -0.42% 9.10% 烟酒类 -0.25% -0.06% -0.02% -0.34% 0.24% 0.22% 0.14% 0.10% -0.20% 0.20% 0.52% 金银珠宝类 -0.34% -0.12% -0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.38% 0.13% -0.32% -0.48% -0.34% 0.45% 石油及制品类 -0.37% -0.20% 0.14% 1.42% 2.44% 2.12% 1.89% 1.17% 0.65% 1.42% 3.03% 化妆品类 -0.43% -0.17% -0.09% -0.08% -0.16% 0.01% 0.22% -0.29% -0.51% -0.18% 0.17% 日用品类 -0.45% -0.47% -0.10% 0.25% 0.18% 0.03% 0.21% -0.32% -0.47% -0.04% 0.51% 家用电器和音像器材类 -0.74% -1.26% -0.80% -0.35% 0.20% 0.45% 0.25% -0.64% -0.44% -0.26% 0.64% 服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类 -1.16% -1.51% -0.70% -0.04% 0.39% 0.06% 0.10% -1.47% -1.96% -1.08% 0.47% 北京 上海 广州成都 南京 武汉 西安 苏州 重庆深圳长沙 昆明 南宁 东莞石家庄 厦门 合肥 2023-01-1395.58%87.49%115.37%96.65%108.96%211.19%133.46% 2023-01-1295.67%88.93%115.79%96.51%112.53%225.29%132.23% 2023-01-1196.00% 2023-01-1094.92% 2023-01-0992.36% 2023-01-06 2023-01-05 2023-01-04 2023-01-03 88.39% 87.36% 86.29% 40.20% 88.39%115.98% 87.60%117.36% 81.95%120.28% 77.46%114.12% 76.22%112.18% 74.02%112.09% 97.20%109.46%222.83%131.87% 97.11%108.36%221.45%130.67% 95.80%104.62%212.90%114.99% 90.56%97.14%199.08%114.99% 88.87%95.88%198.60%113.05% 89.36%93.29%196.51%112.19% 86.24% 88.56% 84.81% 83.74% 79.98% 75.16% 73.82% 88.03%98.80%93.47%116.56%113.85%104.34%139.82% 87.54%99.80%94.29%117.18%113.99%99.01%142.81% 88.45%99.65%95.24%117.85%114.96%95.42%140.77% 87.90%101.78%94.53%117.83%115.11%100.50%139.51% 83.81%104.42%89.02%112.64%115.85%105.82%127.44% 77.28% 75.70% 99.19% 97.74% 33.24%80.82%64.15%58.88%148.59%87.51% 77.13%193.51%98.01% 81.37%106.72%107.50%97.77%119.57% 79.59%105.48%106.40%96.28%120.20% 78.00%103.78%106.54%97.52%118.36% 48.79%54.36%57.66%64.47%81.32%87.62%96.41%93.97% 71.18%95.31%105.91% 67.01%174.07%87.37% 67.23%171.50%83.15% 61.08%166.21%77.98% 56.57%168.26%75.24% 36.72%136.84%45.03% 33.81%122.58%38.62% 37.55%113.74%35.78% 43.10%101.28%35.76% 53.27%94.46%38.34% 59.78% 51.76% 52.96% 50.76% 36.47% 33.55% 34.16% 35.93% 41.07% 61.59% 68.27% 75.12% 80.85% 85.97% 80.19%207.55% 80.25%217.30% 77.44%214.75% 76.98%216.30% 76.21%206.53% 72.49%193.23% 68.56%193.12% 64.51%190.03% 36.85%145.93% 77.32%109.55%41.70%165.16% 86.97%90.43%61.83%94.39%37.47%145.12% 56.13%95.07%36.21%134.46% 50.43%91.97%36.80%125.22% 48.82%90.08%39.38%114.56% 2022-12-2649.14%28.27%60.08%72.02% 2022-12-2344.74%30.33%54.94%64.25% 2022-12-2241.92%35.68%52.81%59.90% 2022-12-2137.12%41.76%51.06%54.22% 2022-12-2033.46%48.86%50.87%50.39% 41.73% 38.16% 35.21% 29.31% 31.28% 37.44% 44.41% 52.28% 62.83% 55.33% 60.51% 50.47% 46.26% 44.42% 39.78% 37.43% 57.96% 51.00% 47.12% 38.34% 44.77% 49.36% 57.76% 71.59% 83.90% 82.78% 85.54% 71.97% 64.27% 61.57% 59.22% 55.14% 85.80% 80.82% 77.68% 58.34% 51.03% 51.23% 52.69% 58.88% 45.85% 47.21% 56.13% 62.58% 71.75% 71.35% 62.07% 62.64% 57.71% 53.04% 53.98% 59.82% 67.44% 74.14% 79.16% 69.08% 61.00% 62.29% 68.09% 81.92% 2022-12-13 2022-12-12 2022-12-0