2022全球汽车零部件供应商研究报告（英文）

GLOBALAUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERSTUDY2022 Theindustrywentintothethirdconsecutiveyearwith volumesbelowpre-pandemiclevels-Automotivesuppliersattheedge? LAZARDBerger Contents A COVID-I9SEMICONDUCTORSHORTAGES.ENERGYCRISISAND StartingwiththeCoviD-19pandemic,theautomotiveindustryisgoingintothethirdconsecutivecrisisyearwithanaboveaveragefinancialburdenespeciallyfortraditionalautomotivesuppliers B SUSTAINABILITY,NEWTECHNOLOGIESANDCHANGINGINDUSTRY DYNAMICSASMID-ANDLONG-TERMTASK Theshort-termimplicationshaveaddedchallengesontheautomotivesupplieragendabutnotchangedthelong-termtasksfrombefore-Impactonsuppliersvariesbasedontheirarchetype C SUPPLIERCEOAGENDA-SETTINGTHEDIRECTIONFOR LASTINGSUCCESS Mainlytraditionalsuppliersareunderpressure,butallplayersmustdefinetheirsetofstrategic actionstoensurefuturesuccessinavolatilemarketenvironment D YOURCONTACTSTODISCUSSTHEINSIGHTS RolandBergerandLazardAutomotiveteams Globalcrisishavebroughtgrowthtoahaltbutnotchangedtheoverarching technologytrendsandthefuturechallengesforautomotivesuppliers Executivesummary DuetoCovid-19,semi-conductorandraw-materialshortages,UkrainewarandCovid-19relapsesinChinain2o22,globalautomotiveproductionvolumeswillreachpre-crisislevelsonlyinthemid-term Althoughthegrowthoftheglobalautomotivesuppliermarketshascometoahalt,averagesuppliermarginscamebackto2019levelsin2021 However,marginpressurefromcostinflationexpectedtofurtherincrease Profitsareallocatedacrossthesupplierlandscapeveryselectively.Whilemosttraditionalautomotivesuppliershavedifficulties,manyelectronics softwareandaftermarketplayersarerealizingaboveaveragemargins Overall,theuncertaintyaboutthedevelopmentinthenear-tomid-termfuturehasneverbeenashighastoday-Fromaglobalrecessionora collapsingofchipsupplieswithfurthervolumedeclinestoasteadyvolumerecoveryeverythingispossible Onthebackofsubstantiallyrisinginterestrates,financingwillbecomemuchmorechallengingforautomotivesuppliers Thecrisesin2020-2022havepushedgeneralautomotivetrendsintothebackground.Nevertheless,digitalization,automateddriving,powertrainelectrificationorachangingE/Earchitecturearethetopchallengesforautomotivesuppliersinthemid-term Priceinflation,volatileproductionvolumesandunevenlydistributedprofitlevelsindicate,thatthegeneralmarketdynamicsneedstochange Globalpandemicsandgeopoliticalconflictsdrivethenecessitytode-globalizesupplierfootprintsandtheinterconnectedsupplychainstoincreasecrisisresilienceinthefuture A. CoViD-19,SemiconductorcrisisandUkraine warasoperationalshort-termchallenges Theautomotivesupplierindustryisfacinganother difficultyearwithvolatilevolumesandhighuncertainty TheanticipatedvolumerecoveryafterCOViD-19andthesemiconductorcrisisin2021failedtomaterialize.Instead,theWarinUkraineandCOViD-19relapses inChinaputongoingburdensonthemarket Nevertheless,somesupplierse.g.,aftermarketplayers,electronicssuppliersorprocessdrivenspecialistsfromAsia,couldoutperformthemarketspushingtheoverallindustrytoaweightedaveragemarginof5.3%in2021 Fromanoverallperspective,short-noticevolumevolatilitiesarechallengingforautomotivesuppliersmakingefficientshop-flooroperationsandtheuseofcost-reductionlevers,suchasshort-timeworkorsupply-chainmanagement,difficult Withanincreasingfearofrecession,thefurtherdevelopmentoftheindustry dependsespeciallyontheinflationmonetarypoliciesaswellasthecostand securityofsupplyofenergythroughoutWesternEurope Source:RolandBerger/Lazard Theautomotivebusinessbecomesmoreandmorevolatilewith operationalandstrategicchallengesalternating EconomiccyclesoftheautomotiveindustryIproductionvolume,#ml 89.0 74.376.9 77.2 81.6 70.6 67.6 Direction 74.6unclear 59.5 TelematicsGlobalChipshortage, trend,BRICeconomic&rawmaterial Dot-comcountries&financialGrowthinDieselCOVID-crisis&warin bubblelow-costcarcrisisChinagate19crisisUkraine StrategicchallengesOperationalchallenges Suppliershavemanydifferentchallengeswhichimpactdailybusinessand requirealotofmanagementattention SupplierCEOradarscreen-Shorttermimplications Competition manufacturers VehicleLegislation Underutilized capacities PriceLogistics Public sustainability End Reduced transparency efficiency push SupplychainSupplychainRawmaterial customersICEshareresilience Importanceof Diversity traceability andlabor Fuel efficiency SoftwareandRelevanceofAlternativemarkets ElectronicsTier3/4Emissionsources DigitalNew suppliersregulation Energycost increases EnvironmentalfeaturescollaborationNew competitors Covid-19 Rawmaterial Logisticcost awareness Uncertaintyaboutinflation models Cost Cost containment Russia Chip costincreases Laborcost increases Geo- claiming andrecessionrecovery sanctionsshortagesincreases Re-financing political Decliningrelevance Willingness topay New XEV Price Energyshortages ability Capital environment ofCISstates Stable Tradedemand OEMS warsWorkforceAttractivenessCISdivestmentsmarkets scarcityofequitystory warsCostofindustry Risinginterest General uncertainty Global Flaminguppandemics StateM&A rates R&Dcapital transformation F/Xrate US-Chinatensions Ukrainewar funding opportunitiesrequ