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乌克兰危机对国际贸易的影响（英）

商贸零售2022-12-01布鲁盖尔研究所小***

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The Ukraine crisis has had significant economic implications, including increased energy prices, changes in trade flows, and forecast revisions. Energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and sanctions were not the main drivers. However, the International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. The collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy’s productive capacity over time, has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. Russia’s trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey. Sanctions had an impact on trade, but there is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing their exports.

WORKINGPAPER|ISSUE20/2022|20DECEMBER2022 THEIMPACTOFTHEUKRAINECRISISONINTERNATIONALTRADE ZSOLTDARVASANDCATARINAMARTINS WestudytheeconomicimplicationsofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,byscrutinisingglobaltradevolumesandcommodityprices,tradebalancesandbilateraltradeflowsbetweenmajoreconomicpowersandRussia.Wefindthatenergypricesincreasedmorein2021thanin2022,suggestingthatthewarandthesanctionswerenotthemostimportantdrivers.Nevertheless, InternationalMonetaryFundforecastrevisionsfromOctober2021toOctober2022suggestthatthevolumeofglobaltradeingoodsandservicesdeclinedby3.4percent,energypricesincreasedbyabout100percent,andthepricesofnon-energycommoditiesby8percent.Thewarcould beanimportantdriveroftheseforecastrevisions,thoughotherfactorswerealsoatplay.Whileforecastsforimportantindustrialproductioninputcostswerenotrevised,soaringenergypricesdeterioratedthetradebalanceofcountriesimportingenergy. OnlyhalfoftheincreaseinRussia’stradesurpluswasrelatedtosoaringenergyprices.TheotherhalfresultedfromthecollapseofRussianimports,whichwilllikelyunderminetheRussianeconomy’sproductivecapacityovertime.FallingRussianexportsofgoodsotherthanmineralfuelssuggestRussia’sproductivecapacityhasalreadyweakened.Russia’stradehasbeenreorientedfromadvancedeconomiestoChina,IndiaandTurkey,butthishasonlypartiallycompensatedforthedeclineintradewithadvancedcountries. Wefindthatsanctionshadanimpactontrade.ThereisnoevidenceofEuropeanandUScompaniescircumventingsanctionsbyre-routingsanctionedgoodstoRussiaviaChinaandTurkey.TheUKandtheUShavealreadystoppedimportingfossilfuelsfromRussia,andsuchimportsbytheEUhavedeclined.WiththeEU’sRussianseabornecrudepetroleumimportbantakingeffectinDecember2022andtherefinedpetroleumbancomingtoeffectinFebruary2023,Russia’srevenuesfromfossilfuelexportstotheEUaresettoshrinksignificantly,withlimitedoptionsforredirectingexportstoothercountries. Thethreemainpolicy-relevantimplicationsfromourresearchare: •Thewarandthesanctionsarenotthemostimportantdriversofenergyprices; •Thedirectaimofsanctionsseemstohavebeenachieved; •ThecapacityoftheRussianstatetofinancethewarfromfossilfuelrevenuesisboundtoshrink. PaperpreparedfortheNomuraFoundation’sMacroEconomyResearchConference2022on‘TheImpactoftheUkraineCrisisontheGlobalEconomy’,Tokyo,27October2022.TheauthorsthankMariaDemertzis,MasahiroKawai,AtsushiNakajimaandparticipantsintheNomuraFoundationConferenceandthe31October2022BruegelResearchMeetingforusefulcommentsandsuggestions,andConorMcCaffreyforhishelpwithupdatingthedataset. ZsoltDarvas(zsolt.darvas@bruegel.org)isaSeniorFellowatBruegelandSeniorResearchFellowatCorvinusUniversityofBudapest CatarinaMartins(catarina.martins@bruegel.org)isaResearchAnalystatBruegel Recommendedcitation: Darvas,Z.andC.Martins(2022)‘TheimpactoftheUkrainecrisisoninternationaltrade’, WorkingPaper20/2022,Bruegel 1Introduction On24February2022,RussiainvadedUkraine,triggeringinternationalcondemnation.The2March2022UnitedNationsresolutiondemandingthatRussiaimmediatelyenditsmilitaryoperationsinUkrainewasadoptedby141countries,with37abstentionsand5against,whilethe12October2022UNresolutiondemandingthereversalofRussia’sattemptedillegalannexationofUkrainianterritorieswasadoptedby143countries,with35abstentionsand5against1. Theinternationalcondemnationwasfollowedquicklybytheimpositionofwide-rangingeconomicsanctionsonRussia,andtheprovisionofmilitarysupporttoUkraine,bymostOECDandEuropeanUnioncountries.Trade-relatedsanctionshaveincludedprohibitionsofexportstoRussiaofstrategicgoods,includinghigh-techgoodsandcomponentsforuseinelectronics,telecommunications,aerospaceandoilrefining,amongothersectors.SanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStatesapplynotonlytogoodsexportedbyUScompanies,butalsotogoodsproducedelsewhereusingUStechnologies.Theextra-territorialnatureofUSsanctionshaslikelyimpactedexportstoRussiaevenfromcountriesthathavenotappliedsanctions.TheEU,UnitedKingdomandUShavealsoannouncedplanstophaseoutimportsofRussianenergy. Thewarhittheglobaleconomybycreatingnewgeopoliticalandeconomicuncertainties,soaringenergyprices,anddisruptionstoglobalvaluechainsinwhichRussianandUkrainiancompanieswereinvolved.EconomicsanctionsexertedadverseeffectsnotonlyonRussia,butalsooncountriesthatimposedthemand,moregenerally,onothereconomiesbecauseofhigherenergyandcommodityprices. IsolatingtheimpactontheglobaleconomyandtradeofRussia’swarisdifficultbecauseglobalinflationpressureswerebuildingupalreadybeforethewar,alongwiththerecoveryfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.Thepandemicresultedinshortagesofvariousmaterialsandmachinery,andinincreasedtransportationcostsandtimes.Thefiscalstimulusimplementedbymostcountriesaroundtheworldin2020-2021supportedhouseholdincomes,buttheuncertaintyandlockdownrestrictionsboostedhouseholdsavingsinseveralcountries,creatingpent-updemand.Sandbu(2022)arguedthatoneofthereasonsfortheglobalsurgeininflation,whichcameearlierthantheenergypriceshock,wasthestrongreboundinUSconsumergoodsdemand,leadingtoaglobalscarcityofgoods,withspill-overeffectsontherestoftheworld.Aspandemic-relatedrestrictionswereeasedandlargelyeliminate

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