Meeting food needs in the developing world: The location and magnitude of the task in the next decade

Research Report No, 1Fehruary 1976MEETINGFOODNEEDSINTHEDEVELOPINGWORLD:The Location and Magnitude of the Task in the Next Decade1776 Massachusells Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, U.S.A. IITERNATIOAL FOOD POLICY RESBARCE IRSTITUTEBGARD O1r TRUBTEGSSirJohn CrewfordChs.imen; AnstrslisRelph Eirby DevidaonVice Chsirmsn; U.S.A.OJetun,s AboyadeNigerfsDsvid E. BellU.S.A.Hornat E.BorleugMexicoNchuned lKheshtTJ.ASHurul Ilar3angladeehArfonao PsetoreBrazilFuey UngphakornThaiLatidLucio G. RecsArgentinaAndrew Shonriel.dUnited Kirgdom.Vi.Jayahankar S. VyasIndiaRuth ZagorinCanudaDale S,uthaway,irectorex ofricio; U.S,A. TABLE OF CONTENTSPagePrerace. 00Surmary of Findinge.IntroductionSourceo of Data snd Methodology.10Reconoiliation of Net Deficitsi985,wrc(Fao) and IFPRI.12Root Crops in Relation to Cereal Deficits.13The Production Record,1g60-7i14PotentialCereal DeficitsoDevelopins MarketEconomtes1.8The Global View.28Defieits Assoclatedjrod s Lsi Anei,tIcomeCategorles20The Regional2629Incomewe, protebiyasaraitof sahnpcreb29India.BangladeshPakistan29Indonesia.Philippines.Th$ilandOtner AslaNorth Afrioa/MidaleEastOPEC CountriesTurkeyNon-OPEC HIghTneomeGrcupNon-CPECLowafica.IncomeGroup.Sub-SaharaNigerta.High IrcomeGrcup.Low Incomedtcrek tedkareriebeemteeLatin America.MexicoOther MiadleAmerica/CsrfbbeanArgenting.Br&zilVenezuela.Ecuador.55Other IatinAmerica.Asian CentrellyPlanned Eccoromies.11Arne x1:IFPRICountryCategorie34iAnex :2 :Projection MethodsStatistical Series for Figures l-9 PREFACEThis repozt ls the first researah report of the InternationalFcoa Folioy Reeearch Institute. As its titie irndicates, it ia apartial analysis of the world food problen which attenpta tctndicate preciseiy the location snd magnitude of posaiblc fooddefictta in developing mwrket eoonomies.The report besrs no aingle author because it is a Joint effort.However, Nethan Koffsky carried most of the burden fon the anaiysisard writing.Diane Skellie and Pradeep Kotamraju did most of thestatistical analyala.Kenneth Bachman,Felix Nweke,M,S.Rao,andJames Gavan all contributed to the plenning and deveiopment cf tneanalysis.Special thanks are due to the other organizattona that cor-tributed In various waya, Tnegs inelude the Interrational MonetaryFund, the world Bank, ard tne United Ststes Department of Agrieulture,all of which made date available.Thanks are also due the BrockingsInatitution which msde ite computer facilitles availabie.wtth this report, IFPRI is inaugurating researoh program onavailsble tc desl with then, especiaily the iesues of major inportancetc developing countries. The ain of the I7pRI researeh is te heipclazify the problema and identify solutions to prevert the worseningof what is already a serious probiem In ost of the developing coun-trdes.Dale E. HathawayDirector Ftedad7640Sumnary of FindingaThis report is concerne with the food reeds ot nore thanhalf the people on earth--those who live in developing countriesclassified aa developing narket eoonomies (DME),as &istinet fromPlanned econores.By 1g85, their numbere wi1l exeeed 2.5 bi1liorpeople, of whom 2,2 biilior may well be living in food deficitcountriee,if productior performanoe since ig6c is repeated inthe next decade.For moat,their present aituation is precarious.It is likely to turn much more larming, unleas scttons are takento foreetall it.the future, vroduction of cereals, the naJor food 4n most develop-ing countries, wili fali hort of meeting food demard in foodthe rate of eoonomtc rowth.15 miiiion tons in the food criais_yea,1974/75,,and an,averageaf 28 million tons in the relatively gcod produotion period,ngbteaneianabeAeia aceounts for some 5o percent of the,total projecteddeficita,North Afrioa/Mfddle East about 2o percent, and Sub-saharaAfrica and Latin Amerioa about 15 percent each.A total cereel deficit of about loo million tons in Dne faoddeficit countrtes could well prove conservative.ItisbasedonproJection of the production,trend of 196o/4, an average fncreaseof 2.5percent,a year,to 1985.Durine the laet half or thatperiod,1967-7k,tha rete has siowed to l.7percent.bxtepsn97680, abrdto serve as a reliablc base for pro,ecting the future.the pervasivenesa of the slaokentng in produotion for all regionsand cereal arops (except for wheat in Asia,the most visible evi-production trends.In the eventperrormanoe i.n the future reflectstne more recent trend, cereal production could fell_short anadditional loo miliion tons,doubling the cereal deficit to about2cmi11iontong.Suoh large transfer of food, 1argcly fromdeveloped countrtes, could weil be unmanageable physically orLcw-incctne Food Defioit CuntrieeThe aore cf the food problem is ir the low income food deficitcountriee (i.c.sthose withpe cspita incomes of lesa than $2oo)incresseinpopulationwiii come.They are projected to incurabouthalr of tne total deficit, Bome 42-48 miliion tons of csrealby lg85.To finance importB of euch magnttude would appear to bebeyond any prospect of these countries having the foreign exchange