2021核能的国际现状与前景

IAEA AromsforPeaceandDevelopmen BoardofGovernorsGOV/INF/2021/32-GC(65)/INF/6* GeneralConference GeneralDistribution Original:English Forofficialuseonly INTERNATIONALSTATUSANDPROSPECTSFORNUCLEARPOWER2021 ReportbytheDirectorGeneral IAEA AromsforPeaceandDevelopmenr BoardofGovernors GeneralConference GOV/INF/2021/32-GC(65)/INF/6 Date;16July2021 GeneralDistribution Original:English Forofficialuseonly Item18oftheConference'sprovisionalagenda (Ippvpue[/(s9)00) InternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclear Power2021 ReportbytheDirectorGeneral Summary GeneralConferenceResolutionGC(50)/RES/13requestedtheSecretariattoprovide,ona biennialbasis,acomprchensivereportontheinternationalstatusandprospectsfornuclearpower, beginningin2008.GeneralConferenceresolutionGC(60)/RES/12,issuedinSeptember2016,requestedtheSecretariattocontinuetopublishtheIntemationalStatusandProspectsforNuclear Powerreportonafour-yearbasis,startingin2017.Thisreportrespondstoresolution GC(60)/RES/12. GOV/INF/2021/32-GC(65)/INF/6 Page1 InternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclear Power2021 ReportbytheDirectorGeneral A.CleanenergyforClimateandDevelopment:Socioeconomic Context A.1.TheEvolvingContext 1. Therehavebeensignificantnationalandinternationaldevelopmentsunderscoringtheroleof nuclearpowerinmitigatingclimatechangeandachievingsustainabledevelopmentsinceInternational StatusandProspectsforNuclearPower2017(documentGOV/INF/2017/12-GC(61)/INF/8)was issued.Thissectionhighlightssomeofthemostimportantdevelopmentsaffectingthestatusand prospectsfornuclearpower. A.1.2.InternationalDevelopments Thereisgrowingglobalrecognitionthataccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableandmoderm energyforall(UnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)7)iscriticaltoachievingvirtually alloftheother16SDGs.TheSDGs,adoptedbyworldIcadersinScptember2015,calluponallcountries Theseeffortsgohandinhandwithstrategiesthatbuildeconomicgrowthandaddresssocialneeds includingeducation,health,socialprotectionandjobopportunities,whiletacklingclimatechangeandenvironmentalprotection.AccordingtotheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs (UNDESA),whichactsasthesecretariatfortheSDGs,SDG7iscrucialtoachievingalmostallofthe otherSDGs,*frompovertyeradicationviaadvancementsinhealth,education,watersupplyand industrializationtomitigatingclimatechange",Thatsamepointhasbeenrepeatedlyaffirmedbythe IntermationalEnergyAgency(IEA)oftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),whichinMarch2018statedthat“cnergyisatthehcartofmanyoftheseSustainable reducingwastefulenergysubsidiestocurbingdeadlyairpollutionthatprematurelykillsmillionsaround theworld" Estimationsofhowmuchcarbondioxide(CO2)hasbeeneffectivelyavoidedbytheuseofnuclear powerinthelast50yearsvarybetween70gigatonnes(Gt)and78Gt,anddependonwhattechnologies wouldhavebeendeployedifnuclearpowerplants(NPPs)hadnotbeenbuilt.Calculatingavoided emissionsfromthecurrentinstalledfleetiscomplex,sincethealternativetonuclearpowercouldrangefromgastoacombinationofgasandrenewables.Between1970and2010,theclearalternativesto nuclearpowerwereoil,coalandlater,gas.Countriesthatdeployednuclearonalargescale,suchas GOV/INF/2021/32-GC(65)/INF/6 Page2 FranceandSweden,managedtodecarbonizetheireleetricitymixintwotothreedccades.In2019, nuclearpowerproduced10.4%oftheworld'selectricity,with2657terawatt-hours(TWh)oflowcarbon electricityproduced.Hadthislevelofgenerationbeenproducedbygas,about1.5GtCO2wouldhave beenemitted,Lifecycleanalysesofelectricitygenerationtechnologiesshowthatnuclearpoweris amongthelcastcarbonintensiveofalltechnologies,onaparwithhydroandwindpower,Nuclearpowerrcmainsakeyoptionfordecarbonizingtheelectricitysectorinthedccadestocomc,togctherwith variablerenewablessuchaswindandsolarphotovoltaics(PV), CarbonImpact NuclearContribution Nuclearpowerhashelpedavoid 70Gt-78Gtof COoverthe past50years. Internationalacknowledgementofthesignificantroleplayedbynuclearpowerinclimatechange mitigationandsustainabledevelopmenthasbeensteadilyadvancing.Manynationalandinternationalorganizationshaveanalysedtheneedstodecarbonizetheenergysystemconsistentwithachievingthe goalsoftheParisAgrecment;andmanyofthcirsccnarioscallforasubstantialincreaseinglobalnuclear powercapacity,includingallfourillustrativescenariosdescribedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange(IPCC)inits2018SpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5°C.Indeed,toachievethe1.5°Cobjective,thefourIPCCillustrativescenarioscallforanincreaseinnuclearpowercapacityof bctwcen60%and500%by2050,Atthesametimc,nuclearpowerisincreasinglyscenasanimportant optionforthedevelopingworldtomcetrisingcncrgydemandandimprovelivingstandardswithout increasinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.AccordingtotheIEA'sSustainableDevelopmentScenario fromitsWorldEnergyOutlook2019,nuclearpowerneedstoexpandsignificantlybeyonditshistorical marketsembarkingcountries,includingdevelopingones,andalsobeyondthepowersectoriftheworld istohaveareasonablechanceofmcetingclimatcchangegoalsaswellastheotherencrgyrelatedSDGs. IPCCScenarios NuclearContribution Toachievethe1.5°Cobjective,4IPCC