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Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data

2022-09-23IMF能***

DidtheCOVID-19RecessionIncreasetheDemandforDigitalOccupationsintheUnitedStates?EvidencefromEmploymentandVacanciesData JiamingSoh,MyrtoOikonomou,CarloPizzinelli,IppeiShibata,andMarinaM.TavaresWP/22/195 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. SEP ©2022InternationalMonetaryFundWP/22/195 IMFWorkingPaper ResearchDepartment DidtheCOVID-19RecessionIncreasetheDemandforDigitalOccupationsintheUnitedStates?EvidencefromEmploymentandVacanciesData PreparedbyJiamingSoh,MyrtoOikonomou,CarloPizzinelli,IppeiShibata,andMarinaM.Tavares AuthorizedfordistributionbyFlorenceJaumotteSeptember2022 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:ThispaperinvestigateswhethertheCOVID-19recessionledtoanincreaseindemandfordigitaloccupationsintheUnitedStates.UsingO*NETtocapturethedigitalcontentofoccupations,wefindthatregionsthatwerehitharderbytheCOVID-19recessionexperiencedalargerincreaseintheshareofdigitaloccupationsinbothemploymentandnewly-postedvacancies.Thisresultisdriven,however,bythesmallerdeclineindemandfordigitalworkersrelativetonon-digitalones,andnotbyanabsoluteincreaseinthedemandfordigitalworkers.Whileourevidencesupportstheviewthatdigitalworkers,particularlythoseinurbanareasandcognitiveoccupations,weremoreinsulatedduringthisrecession,thereislittleindicationofapersistentshiftinthedemandfordigitaloccupations. JELClassificationNumbers: E24,J08,J22,J23,J24,J63 Keywords: Digitalization,LaborMarket,Employment,Vacancies,COVID-19 -MailAddress: jiamings@umich.edu;moikonomou@imf.org;cpizzinelli@imf.org;ishibata@imf.org;mmendestavares@imf.org *WethankFlorenceJaumotteforinvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.AversionofthispaperwaspresentedattheIMF’sJobs,GrowthandStructuralReformsSeminar.WethankRomainDuval,Niels-JakobHansenandparticipantsforusefulsuggestionsandstimulatingdiscussions.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. DidtheCovid-19RecessionIncreasetheDemandforDigitalOccupationsintheUnitedStates?EvidencefromEmploymentandVacanciesData JiamingSoh∗ UniversityofMichigan MyrtoOikonomou InternationalMonetaryFund CarloPizzinelli InternationalMonetaryFund IppeiShibata InternationalMonetaryFund MarinaM.Tavares InternationalMonetaryFund September29,2022 Abstract ThispaperinvestigateswhethertheCovid-19recessionledtoanincreaseindemandfordigitaloccupationsintheUnitedStates.UsingO*NETtocapturethedigitalcon-tentofoccupations,wefindthatregionsthatwerehitharderbytheCovid-19recessionexperiencedalargerincreaseintheshareofdigitaloccupationsinbothemploymentandnewly-postedvacancies.Thisresultisdriven,however,bythesmallerdeclineindemandfordigitalworkersrelativetonon-digitalones,andnotbyanabsoluteincreaseinthedemandfordigitalworkers.Whileourevidencesupportstheviewthatdigitalworkers,particularlythoseinurbanareasandcognitiveoccupations,weremoreinsu-latedduringthisrecession,thereislittleindicationofapersistentshiftinthedemandfordigitaloccupations. JELCodes:E24,J08,J22,J23,J24,J63 Keywords:Digitalization,LaborMarket,Employment,Vacancies,Covid-19 ∗Emails:jiamings@umich.edu;ishibata@imf.org.WethankFlorenceJaumotteforinvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.AversionofthispaperwaspresentedattheIMF’sJobs,GrowthandStructuralReformsSeminar.WethankRomainDuval,Niels-JakobHansenandparticipantsforusefulsuggestionsandstim-ulatingdiscussions.WealsothankYiJiandLongjiLifortheirexcellentresearchassistance.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 1Introduction Covid-19haschangedthewaypeopleliveandwork(e.g.,Bloometal.(2022);Forsytheetal.(2020);Hensviketal.(2021)).Thecontainmentmeasuresandvoluntarysocial-distancinghaveshiftedmanyactivitiesfromanin-personsettingtoonline.Fromvirtualworkmeetingstowaitingstaffinrestaurantsthatplaceordersviasmartphonesandtablets,theinteractionofworkerswithdigitaltechnologyhasbeeneverincreasing.Suchpandemic-inducedshiftsmayhavestructurallyincreasedthedemandforskillsthatareneededtocomplementdigitaltechnologies.ThispapersetsouttoevaluatetheimpactoftheCovid-19recessionontheskillsdemandedinthelabormarketbyinvestigatingthefollowingquestions:i)didCovid-19increasethedemandfordigitalskillsinthelabormarkets?;ii)ifany,wastheincreasetransitoryorpermanent?;iii)wasthechangeindigitaloccupationsbroad-based,orconcentratedinselectedtypesofoccupationsorregions? Centraltoourpaperishowwedefinedigitaloccupations.WefollowMuroetal.(2017)anduseO*NETmeasuresonknowledgeandworkactivityrelatedtocomputerstocalculatedigitalintensityscoresforoccupationsintheUS.Wefocusondigitalskillsinsteadoftheteleworkabil

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Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data

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