联合武器作战和无人飞机系统（英）
AI智能总结
480 50 13.0 12.500 12.0 40 070 0608 NOVEMBER2022 COMBINEDARMSWARFAREANDUNMANNEDAIRCRAFTSYSTEMS ANEWERAOFSTRATEGICCOMPETITION SethG.Jones—JakeHarrington—ChristopherK.Reid—MatthewStrohmeyer AReportoftheCSISInternationalSecurityProgram NOVEMBER2022 COMBINEDARMS WARFAREANDUNMANNEDAIRCRAFTSYSTEMS ANEWERAOFSTRATEGICCOMPETITION SethG.Jones—JakeHarrington—ChristopherK.Reid—MatthewStohmeyer AReportoftheCSISInternationalSecurityProject Lanham•Boulder•NewYork•London ABOUTCSIS TheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)isabipartisan,nonprofitpolicyresearchorganizationdedicatedtoadvancingpracticalideastoaddresstheworld’sgreatestchallenges. ThomasJ.PritzkerwasnamedchairmanoftheCSISBoardofTrusteesin2015,succeedingformerU.S.senatorSamNunn(D-GA).Foundedin1962,CSISisledbyJohnJ.Hamre,whohasservedaspresidentandchiefexecutiveofficersince2000. CSIS’spurposeistodefinethefutureofnationalsecurity.Weareguidedbyadistinctsetofvalues—nonpartisanship,independentthought,innovativethinking,cross-disciplinaryscholarship,integrityandprofessionalism,andtalentdevelopment.CSIS’svaluesworkinconcerttowardthegoalofmakingreal-worldimpact. CSISscholarsbringtheirpolicyexpertise,judgment,androbustnetworkstotheirresearch,analysis,andrecommendations.Weorganizeconferences,publish,lecture,andmakemediaappearancesthataimtoincreasetheknowledge,awareness,andsalienceofpolicyissueswithrelevantstakeholdersandtheinterestedpublic. CSIShasimpactwhenourresearchhelpstoinformthedecisionmakingofkeypolicymakersandthethinkingofkeyinfluencers.Weworktowardavisionofasaferandmoreprosperousworld. CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions;accordingly,allviewsexpressedhereinshouldbeunderstoodtobesolelythoseoftheauthor(s). ©2022bytheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.Allrightsreserved. ISBN:978-1-5381-7058-8(pb);978-1-5381-7059-5(eBook) CenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies1616RhodeIslandAvenue,NWWashington,DC20036 202-887-0200|www.csis.org Rowman&Littlefield4501ForbesBoulevard Lanham,MD20706 301-459-3366|www.rowman.org ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Wewouldliketothanknumerousindividualsfortheirassistanceduringtheresearch,writing,andrevisionstagesofthisreport.Thanks,inparticular,toToddHarrisonandCaitlinLeefortheiroutstandingreviewsofthedraftreport.Weaskedthemtobecriticalandbluntinpointingouterrorsinthelogicandevidenceofthereport—andtheydidexactlythat.Theworkisbetterfortheircandidandhonestfeedback.ThanksalsotoarangeofindividualsintheU.S.DepartmentofDefensewhowerehelpfulindiscussingunmannedaircraftsystems(UASs),particularlytheirincreasingroleincombinedarms. AtCSIS,thankstoRileyMcCabeforhisoutstandingworkcollectingandanalyzingdataonUASs—particularlyinNagorno-KarabakhandUkraine—insupportoftheresearch.Hewasalsoheavilyinvolvedinhelpingusthinkthroughthefigures,photos,andotheraspectsofthereport—includingtheresearchandrevisions.WeextendoursincerethankstoJanesforhelpingusaccessandexploitadditionaldataontheuseofUASsintheRussia-Ukrainewar.ThanksalsotoCatrinaDoxsee,JaredThompson,andGraceHwangfortheirassistanceonresearchandanalysis.Finally,wewouldliketothankCSIS’siLabteamfortheiroutstandingjobinediting,formatting,andpublishingthedocument. ThisreportismadepossiblebygeneralsupporttoCSISandsupportfromGeneralAtomics. CONTENTS ExecutiveSummaryV 1|Introduction1 2|UASsinWarfareandCompetition4 3|Nagorno-KarabakhWar9 4|UkraineWar16 5|NorthernEdge2125 6|TheFutureofUASsinCompetitionandWarfare29 AbouttheAuthors35 Appendix1:UASsandOtherSystemsUsedbyAzerbaijaninthe2020Nagorno-KarabakhWar37 Appendix2:UASsandOtherSystemsUsedbyUkraineinthe2022Russia- UkraineWar40 Appendix3:UASsandOtherSystemsUsedbyRussiainthe2022Russia- UkraineWar45 Endnotes49 EXECUTIVESUMMARY Unmannedaircraftsystems(UASs)haveplayedanimportantroleinwarfareoverthepasttwodecades,includingforcounterterrorismoperations.Buttherehasbeenagrowingdebateabouttheirutilityforcompetitionandinterstatewar—includingbetweenmajorpowerssuchastheUnitedStatesandChina.Forsome,UASsarecreatinga“revolutioninmilitaryaffairs,”whichwillfundamentallyreshapemilitarydoctrine,organization,forcestructure,operations,andtactics.Forothers,however,theeffectivenessofUASshasbeenoverstated,andUASswilllikelyhavelimitedutilityinhighlycontestedenvironments. TobetterunderstandtheutilityofUASs,thisreportaskstwoquestions.First,howhaveUASsbeenutilizedinmodernwarfare,particularlyininterstatewars?Second,whatarethefutureimplicationsforUASsinwarfareandcompetition?Toanswerthesequestions,thisanalysisadoptsacomparativecasestudyapproach.Itexaminestwocases—theNagorno-Karabakhwarin2020andtheUkrainewarin2022—tobetterunderstandhowUASshavebeenusedinwarfare.ItalsoexaminestheNorthernEdge-21exercisein2021,whichprovidesausefulexaminationofUASsinIndo-Pacificcompetitionandwar. Basedontheanalysis,thisreportcomestoseveralconclusions. First,UASshavebeenincreasinglyintegratedintocombinedarmswarfare,anotableshiftfromtheiruseintrackingandtargetingterroristnetworksoverthepasttwodecades.Forexample,AzerbaijaneffectivelyutilizedUASsaspartofacombinedarmsapproach—includingwithfixed-wingaircraft,helicopters,loiterin
