比亚迪新四化业务研究报告

2020 <1> 2020 <2> • • • • • • • • • • 1.0 2.0 2003 2008.12 F3DMDM 2011.05 S6 SUV 2013.12 DM DM 2018.07 2018.12 IGBT4.0 2020.3 2005 F3 2010.05 E6 2012.03 2018.06 DM DM 2018.09 BNA Pro 2019.03 ee 2022 2014- 2008-2013 2003-2007 10 / 30 / Plus e1e2E6EVS2 PlusBEVMaxBEVMaxDM 20 / MaxMaxDMBEVDM BEVDMBEVE3MAXBEVMAXDMMAXBEVMAXDM XPHEV/BEV 30 / 40 / F3ProPro E5ProDMProBEVBEVProDMProBEV 40 / e10 GWh GWh • • • • • • 20 32 52 92 6 10108888 20162017201820192020E2022ELFPNCM GWh 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2022E 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 14 14 14 14 14 12 24 24 2410 20 2030 10 16 28 40 60 100 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3 2 • 18% 2 • <9> 50% 37% 1,301 1,277 40% 29% 1,035 1,059 30% 23% 20% 800 10% 1,400 1% 42% 50% 31% 18% 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2% -2% 197 0% -10% -20% -30% 8% -35% -40% 201520162017201820192020.Q1 34% 20% 22% 20% 98 47 296 47 66 273 105 124 232 149 72 17% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.H1 393 49 53 13 20162017201820192020.H1ICEBEVPHEV 2020.H1 2019.H1 2020.H1 2019.H1 17%,46,793 17%,45,754 8%,20,505 2%,8,979 7%,19,360 5%,14,781 2%,7,481 5%,14,599 6%,26,004 5%,14,461 4%,16,874 4%,11,039 6%,27,333 3%,9,436 6%,27,013 3%,7,793 2%,8,747 36%,44,982 17%,13,125 9%,10,700 17%,12,821 17%,12,739 3%,3,929 13%,10,138 17%,20,970 10%,7,782 0%,548 9%,6,856 13%,15,739 4%,3,388 4%,4,892 3%,2,508 0%,552 3%,2,324 8%,9,478 3%,2,168 3%,4,160 11,188 19% 46,261 81% BEV PHEV 21%,97,868 14%,65,488 56,572 32% 118,388 68% BEVPHEV A0AB 1,785 2,4464% 3.2% 3,383 5.9% 3655 7.1% 20,990 35.2% 4,795 10.3% 5,167 11.5% 6,848 14.2% 8,621 14.5% BEV 8,621 BEV 20,990 Model3 45,754 EZS 5,474 S18,161 XC60PHEV 12,208 N01 4,188 EU5 8,364 ES6 X-NV 2,428 EX5/EX5Pro 7,435 PHEV 6,385 Q2Le-tron 1,141 EU 7,057 DM 5,167 GX5 739 e2 6,848 LPHEV 3,753 EX3 643 BEV 6,274 GTE 3,063 12,120 Ei5 5,379 GTE 2,873 ProBEV 4,795 2,508 ei6 4,224 1,673 VE-1631 BEV BEV DM e2ProBEVProDM C-HRBEV 609 LX IEVS4 • • • • 515 GWh GWh 11.1 10.7 2020.H1 2019.H1 8.7,48.5% LG 2.6,14.52% 2.5,14.03% 7.4,24.77% 0.8,4.4% 0.48,1.64% 0.7,3.76% 1.75,5.88% 0.4,2% 0.56,1.86% 0.3,1.94% 0.3,1.74% 0.8,2.71% 0.3,1.73% 0.2,1.31% 0.2,0.68% 13.7,46.01% 7.4 5.4 2.5 20162017201820192020.H1 MWh 1926 1918 503 503 0.077 8 NCMLFP 2020.H1 MWh 1771.3 92% 111.2 6% 35.4 2% 1917.9 100% MWh 470.9 90% 25.6 5% 22.6 4% 4.2 1% 523.3 100% • • 2020.H1 % % 51,850 13.4% -67.3% 49,799 12.8% --- 29,550 7.6% 95.8% 27,772 7.2% 53.1% 21,166 5.5% 2.9% 20,717 5.3% 654.4% 16,461 4.2% -41% 15.162 3.9% -45.7% 14,337 3.7% 9.8% 14,296 3.7% 21.2% 2020.H1 % % 51,766 13.3% -67.3% 49,799 12.8% -- 47,964 12.4% 124.4% 39,251 10.1% -63.8% 29,550 7.6% 95.8% 20,717 5.3% 654.4% 18,853 4.9% -38.9% 12,415 3.2% -2.0% 12,137 3.1% 178.6% 10,306 2.7% -77.7% 2019 IGBT 627,503 58.2% 194,293 18.0% 56,364 5.2% 32,717 3.0% 17,129 1.6% 16.866 1.6% 14,250 1.3% 10,070 0.9% 8,410 0.8% 3.279 0.3% 36.79 14.48 16.48 20.6920.49 13.6914.99 14.29 17.48 27.95 22.98 23.98 21.98 10.98 13.99 21.9821.98 16.9817.98 28.84 23.84 28.79 19.69 14.99 19.98 17.98 7.99 EV 5.99 8.9810.38 13.2912.99 8.988.99 e1e2e3ProDMProEVDMEVDMEVS2 ProDMProEVDMEVMAXDMMAXEV e 2020 EV • • • • • • • • 2020 EV • • • 2021 DM • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Model3 P7 / 27.15-41.98 22.99-34.99 21.98-27.95 Model3 P7 /mm 4,694*1,850*1,443 4,880*1,896*1,450 4,980*1,910*1,495 /mm 2,875 2,998 2,920 / / / /kW 175/202/340 196/316 163/363 /N∙m 375/404/639 390/660 330/680 /s 5.6/5.3/3.4 6.7/4.7 7.9/4.7/3.9 NEDC /km 445/668/530WLTP 568/656/706/552 506/550/605 L2 √FSD3.0 √ XPILOT3.0 √ DiPilot OTA √ √ √ 15 10.25 +14.97 + <20> • • BNA BSPBMPBLP DM-i/DM-p e Dilink APP BSP BMP A00 A0 A BLP B C / 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 e5 MaxPlus Pro e3 e2 Pro S2 e1 3 3 1 1 1 1 Dilink 14.6 1 1 e e  DC-DC 10  • • 2008 DM 2013 DM 2018 DM DM-i DM-i/DM-P 2020 +DHT P1+P3 , ,P0+P4 P0+P3P0+P3+P4 +DCT P3 DM-p DM-i DM2.0 DM1.0 DM3.0 2-3S BSG+ 180kW330N·m • • • • DM-P NVH NVH • • • 1236 •40% 756 Wh/L 202-259 Wh/L237-275 •VCTP50% VCTP=40% •30% cell 15% 2017 NCMM.N.+HighV. NCM811orabove 2019 LNMO NCMX 200~300Wh/kg ~160Wh/kg ~190Wh/kg 2012 2013 NCM111 NCM523/622 ~180Wh/kg 2002 LFP ParticleEngineeredLFP ~100Wh/kg ~140Wh/kg MoreToLearn NextGEN.LFP 0.9 0.65 0.75 LFP Wh/   BYD CTPAhWhLWhLWh/L 35247.51520.33153,50421325154.8%CTP92202646.41.44259,468.821328062.4%  km Wh/kg EV 421 160 e2 405 160 EV 550/605 140 EU5 510 144.44 EV 500 183.44 AionS 510 170 ES6 510 179.5 • • • • • • • • AutoXL4 L3 • • • • API Di Di DiLink Di Di • • 14.6 APP 8 CPU • • • 100% 300 • Android7.1.2 APP • 341 66 • • • • • MAX e5 • • • • 18 40,000 • • • • • <34> • • • • • • • • • • • / 4.5 17.7 19.4 20.0 21.3 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5.3 5.1 5.3 7.2 12.4 3.9 3.3 6.6 10.5 14.9 11.1 13.6 4.7 2017201820192020E2021E BEVPHEV • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •