美国手表：9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）审查：大冒险

Atressible versionBofA GLOBAL RESEARCHBofASECURITIESUSWatchSeptemberFOMCreview:ThemightyhawksAn even firmer policy path21 September 2022 CormectedAs expected, the Fed hiked rates by 75bp at its September meeting, There were onlyMacroUnited Statessurprise were the hawkish changes to the economic projections.The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was broadly hawkish and showed increasedMichael Gapenrisks of a hard landing. Perhaps most important, the median policy rate forecast in the-1 646 855 3270another 75bp hike in November. This is 50bp more than we were expecting, and it wouldtake the policy rate up to 4.25-4.50%. The 2023 median was 25bp higher (4.50-4.75%).Mark Cabana, CFABotASRztes StrategistThe Fed is forecasting cuts in 2024 and 2025, but we put little weight on theseprojections as they are conditional on a highly uncertain macro outlook.1656 S58 9v9 1+In temms of the economic forecasts, the FOMC revised down GDP growth in 2022 and2023 more than we were expecting, to 0.2% and 1.2% respectively. The former is largelya mark-to-market given negative growth in 1H 2022, but the 2023 revision suggests ajpongsshin@hafacomnarrower path to a soft landing. Meanwhile the SEP has the unernployment rateUS Economicsincreasing to 4.4% by 4Q 2023, 70bp higher than the current level. Recall the SahmGlobal Economies Rates & FXBotASrule": the US economy has entered a recession every time the unermployment rate hasrisen by at least 50bp in the last 75 years. Meanwhile the median FOMC forecast hasBotAScore PCE inflation at 3.1% in 4Q 2023, 40bp higher than the June median. PowellSee Team Page for List of Analystsforecast is correct the Fed might well end up raising the terminal rate to 5%.Meanwhile, Chair Powell was noncommittal on the near-term outlook for rate hikes. Heargued that while the median dot implied a 75bp hike at the November or Decembermeeting, there was a large camp who also saw 10obp more of hikes through yearend.Chair Powell, also reinforced that the Fed will be data dependent and that theCommittee will make decisions one meeting at a time. With limited information betweennow and the November meeting. we a see a 75bp hike as likely. Chair Powell alsosignaled that the Fed wishes to get real rates into positive territory across the yieldcurve Given the revisions to the median dot, we think it should accomplish this goal.This will likely serve to put downward pressure on labor demand and in tum inflation andhelp the Fed restore price stability over time.In response to the meeting, we revise our outlook higher for the target range for thefederal funds rate in the current tightening cycle. We now expect the Fed to raise itspolicy rate by 75bp in November and 50bp in December, followed by two 25bp rate hikesin February and March of next year. This would bring our new forecast for the terminaltarget range for the funds rate to 4.75-5.0% Previously we had anticipated 100bp ofhikes after the September FOMC meeting for a terminal rate of 4.0-4.25%. Hence, ourrevised outlook involves another 75bp of rate hikes relative to our prior baselineforecast.not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresourcesto ahsorb any losses arisingfrom applyingthese ideas or strategles.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with Issuers covered in its researchinterest that could affectthe objectivity of this report. Imvestors should consider thisreports, As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may havea conflict ofreport as only a single factor in making their imvestment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 3 to 5.12464070Timestamp: 21 September 2022 05:11PM EDT SstA GLOBAL RESEARCHExhibit 1: Participants uncertainty assessment (>0 = uncertain)Exhibit 2: September Summary of Economic Projections vs June andUncertainty over the forecast is at extremely high levelsMarch1.00The Fed has continued itshawkishpivot at the latest meeting0.75202220232024Real GDP(% 4Q/4Q)2025181.80.50JrrUrempiomert rate (%)March2.822442481.843 0.25JreMarch353.536PCEinfiaton (% 4Q/4Q)40542.82.32.02.00.00Jne20PCE inflaticnCore PCE infation (% 4Q/4QMarch2.32.120GDPUnempioyment rate4.53.1-0.25June432.723March4.1 2.62.3Seurce federst Open Market (ommitee.Bofa. Glotel FeseercohFed funds(% midpoint)44 46392.925ugud3n)inor.agepu, asg, uo)isanb ay30) suxsai popiic sundp(ud d5 (pt9 J :2)aNJune3.43.83.425ada ao on qaaa aiep/ Suaapd ofepapee iaxna pew1.9 2.82.82420 years' Each poim; in the difusken indexes represerts the rumrber of perticpents whxSote Fedes: Open Meket (ommite.BsfA Gldbs Sesesrhrepndsd ger mineste mmbe wea repmed' Lewe; datediy the tstal mmas ofBofA GLOBAL, RESUARCHIpertitijats. Fiwure esduts Marth 2020 when mo projedisns were sumittedBofA GLCUAL HLSLARUHUS rates: Communications seen as hawkishrates & flatter UST curve. The market was especially focused on the Fed dot plot whichjo uoeadxa epa pue %9 jo arel jeua parradxa ue jaey e pajeuejsadditional 125bps of rate