美国手表：9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）审查：大冒险

Atressibleversion BofAGLOBALRESEARCHBofASECURITIES USWatch SeptemberFOMCreview:Themightyhawks Anevenfirmerpolicypath21September2022Cormected Asexpected,theFedhikedratesby75bpatitsSeptembermeeting,TherewereonlyMacro UnitedStates surprisewerethehawkishchangestotheeconomicprojections. TheSummaryofEconomicProjections(SEP)wasbroadlyhawkishandshowedincreased MichaelGapen risksofahardlanding.Perhapsmostimportant,themedianpolicyrateforecastinthe -16468553270 another75bphikeinNovember.Thisis50bpmorethanwewereexpecting,anditwouldtakethepolicyrateupto4.25-4.50%.The2023medianwas25bphigher(4.50-4.75%). TheFedisforecastingcutsin2024and2025,butweputlittleweightonthese projectionsastheyareconditionalonahighlyuncertainmacrooutlook. MarkCabana,CFARztesStrategist BotAS 1656S589v91+ Intemmsoftheeconomicforecasts,theFOMCreviseddownGDPgrowthin2022and 2023morethanwewereexpecting,to0.2%and1.2%respectively.Theformerislargelyamark-to-marketgivennegativegrowthin1H2022,butthe2023revisionsuggestsanarrowerpathtoasoftlanding.MeanwhiletheSEPhastheunernploymentrate increasingto4.4%by4Q2023,70bphigherthanthecurrentlevel.RecalltheSahmrule":theUSeconomyhasenteredarecessioneverytimetheunermploymentratehas risenbyatleast50bpinthelast75years.MeanwhilethemedianFOMCforecasthas jpongsshin@hafacomUSEconomics BotAS GlobalEconomiesRates&FXBotAS SeeTeamPageforListofAnalysts corePCEinflationat3.1%in4Q2023,40bphigherthantheJunemedian.Powell forecastiscorrecttheFedmightwellendupraisingtheterminalrateto5%. Meanwhile,ChairPowellwasnoncommittalonthenear-termoutlookforratehikes.Hearguedthatwhilethemediandotimplieda75bphikeattheNovemberorDecembermeeting,therewasalargecampwhoalsosaw10obpmoreofhikesthroughyearend.ChairPowell,alsoreinforcedthattheFedwillbedatadependentandthatthe Committeewillmakedecisionsonemeetingatatime.Withlimitedinformationbetween nowandtheNovembermeeting.weaseea75bphikeaslikely.ChairPowellalso signaledthattheFedwishestogetrealratesintopositiveterritoryacrosstheyield curveGiventherevisionstothemediandot,wethinkitshouldaccomplishthisgoal. Thiswilllikelyservetoputdownwardpressureonlabordemandandintuminflationand helptheFedrestorepricestabilityovertime. Inresponsetothemeeting,wereviseouroutlookhigherforthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateinthecurrenttighteningcycle.WenowexpecttheFedtoraiseits policyrateby75bpinNovemberand50bpinDecember,followedbytwo25bpratehikesinFebruaryandMarchofnextyear.Thiswouldbringournewforecastfortheterminaltargetrangeforthefundsrateto4.75-5.0%Previouslywehadanticipated100bpof hikesaftertheSeptemberFOMCmeetingforaterminalrateof4.0-4.25%.Hence,our revisedoutlookinvolvesanother75bpofratehikesrelativetoourpriorbaseline forecast. notsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoahsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategles. BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithIssuerscoveredinitsresearch reports,Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Imvestorsshouldconsiderthis reportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirimvestmentdecision. Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage3to5.12464070 Timestamp:21September202205:11PMEDT SstAGLOBALRESEARCH Exhibit1:Participantsuncertaintyassessment(>0=uncertain)Exhibit2:SeptemberSummaryofEconomicProjectionsvsJuneand UncertaintyovertheforecastisatextremelyhighlevelsMarch TheFedhascontinueditshawkishpivotatthelatestmeeting 1.00 0.75202220232024 RealGDP(%4Q/4Q) Jrr 2025 181.8 0.50 March2.8222 1.8 UreJmrpeiomertrate(%) 44 43 48 March 35 3.5 36 40 PCEinfiaton(%4Q/4Q) 54 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.0 Jne 20 March 20 Unempioymentrate PCEinflaticn CorePCEinfation(%4Q/4Q 4.5 3.1 2.3 2.1 June 43 2.7 23 March 4.1 2.6 2.3 0.25 0.00 -0.25 GDP Fedfunds(%midpoint)4446392.925 SeurcefederstOpenMarket(ommitee.Bofa.GlotelFeseercoh June3.43.83.425 ugud3n)inor.agepu,asg,uo)isanbay30)suxsaipopiicsundp(udd5(pt9J:2)aN adaaoonqaaaaiep/Suaapdofepapeeiaxna pew 1.92.82.824 20years'Eachpoim;inthedifuskenindexesrepresertstherumrberofperticpentswhxSoteFedes:OpenMeket(ommite.BsfAGldbsSesesrh repndsdgerminestemmbewearepmed'Lewe;datediythetstalmmasofBofAGLOBAL,RESUARCHI pertitijats.FiwureesdutsMarth2020whenmoprojedisnsweresumitted BofAGLCUALHLSLARUH USrates:Communicationsseenashawkish rates&flatterUSTcurve.ThemarketwasespeciallyfocusedontheFeddotplotwhichjouoeadxaepapue%9joareljeuaparradxauejaeyepajeuejsadditional125bpsofratehikesthisyear,whichmarketpricingsuggestswillbe75bpin settingofmonetarypolicy.TheFedexpectstherealFFrate(adjustedforinflation)tobe +150bpin'23,+160bpin'24,&+80bpin'25,implyingthattherewillberestrictive policyforquitesometime.Theratesmarketpriceactionwasconsistentwithourexpectationheadingintothemeeting:theFedwasexpectedtosoundhawkishandthecurvewasexpectedtoflatten. Today'sFOMCcommunicationscontinuetoreinforceourcoreratesview:clientsshouldremainunderweightthefrontend&overweightthebackendThefrontend risingrecessionconcerns.Weexpectthecurvetokeepflattening&expectthatduration longswillgainsupportasinflati