The World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer indicates that global trade growth is stagnating, with a reading of 100.0 in Q1 2022, coinciding with the baseline value of the index. The slowdown in trade growth to 3.2% YoY in Q1 is due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. The forecast for merchandise trade in 2022 has increased uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict, rising inflationary pressures, and expected policy tightening in advanced economies. The barometer's component indices are mixed, with most showing on-trend or below-trend growth. The automotive products index has turned down, indicating a potential slowdown in trade growth in the coming quarters.
