2022年7月官方PMI点评：制造业PMI走弱，经济复苏基础仍然不牢固

1 wind wind wind wind wind wind 图表7：非制造业景气度恢复（%） 资料来源：wind，中航证券研究所 同比正增长城市数 合计 北京 上海 广州 成都 南京 武汉 西安 苏州 郑州 重庆 深圳 长沙 昆明 南宁 东莞 石家庄 厦门 合肥 7月下旬 8 -7.2% -20.6% -10.5% -2.5% -34.3% 81.8% 2.9% -11.8% 13.2% - -2.0% -20.8% 9.0% 22.5% -6.8% -4.7% 8.6% 9.0% 22.0% 7月中旬 6 -13.1% -17.7% -35.0% -1.2% -11.6% -12.3% 2.5% -20.6% -17.6% -28.8% -5.1% -5.0% 5.7% 12.6% -1.5% -4.3% 8.6% 8.8% 9.6% 7月上旬 9 -16.5% -32.8% -39.1% 8.4% -6.5% -21.9% 1.9% -32.8% -16.8% -32.6% 0.6% -12.4% 8.5% 10.8% 13.9% 18.5% -7.2% 1.0% 4.7% 6月下旬 10 -9.0% -31.5% -39.0% 46.4% 0.6% -10.7% 5.5% -8.8% -3.5% -32.4% 4.0% 1.0% -1.9% 2.0% 15.4% 72.6% -8.8% 20.2% 12.2% 6月中旬 7 -11.0% -46.0% -47.1% 96.3% -0.1% -7.5% 2.4% -10.8% -13.0% -38.4% -2.0% 9.2% -16.4% -12.5% 2.5% 13.3% -14.1% 30.2% 9.9% 6月上旬 6 -19.4% -63.2% -61.6% 82.8% -4.0% -11.5% -1.5% -9.5% -13.3% -41.5% -1.3% 0.8% -8.8% -0.8% 21.0% 17.5% -11.2% 27.3% 12.6% 5月下旬 3 -38.5% -86.9% -99.8% -2.5% -8.9% -23.5% -6.9% -17.5% -26.5% -50.2% -11.2% -5.0% -13.8% -23.8% 1.1% -18.7% -18.4% 30.5% 7.6% 5月中旬 3 -41.0% -77.2% -100.0% -22.9% -6.5% -20.7% -3.9% -14.9% -31.1% -63.7% -15.3% -14.3% -13.0% -15.1% 1.0% -26.2% -14.6% 24.7% 9.8% 5月上旬 0 -45.3% -67.4% -100.0% -33.8% -12.8% -38.2% -27.0% -27.9% -64.0% -88.0% -14.9% -17.4% -34.7% -27.6% -10.2% -40.0% -31.2% -16.4% -32.4% 4月下旬 2 -38.6% -33.8% -100.0% -29.8% -12.3% -39.1% -31.4% -26.0% -71.9% -43.9% -7.7% -13.9% 25.3% -19.2% -5.5% -26.4% -23.5% 25.5% -48.8% 4月中旬 1 -41.4% -13.3% -100.0% -50.8% -18.0% -42.9% -34.3% -47.9% -69.4% -41.3% -8.1% -17.1% -30.6% -25.6% -28.5% -39.7% -18.6% 19.3% -33.7% 4月上旬 0 -43.4% -24.0% -100.0% -28.7% -32.9% -57.4% -15.4% -30.3% -56.4% -50.9% -20.5% -31.1% -61.9% -45.6% -36.1% -51.3% -28.3% -9.5% -43.3% 3月下旬 0 -38.1% -16.5% -83.8% -25.1% -2.3% -69.2% -13.7% -33.8% -50.3% -40.4% -19.4% -47.6% -61.1% -40.0% -25.1% -54.8% -11.1% -11.7% -23.9% 3月中旬 1 -39.6% -19.2% -68.1% -31.7% -5.3% -45.2% -19.9% -57.3% -42.2% -25.3% -20.7% -87.5% -16.4% -52.8% -13.1% -79.1% -5.0% 0.8% -4.0% 3月上旬 8 -8.1% 3.9% -5.0% -4.9% -10.1% 3.6% -30.9% -16.4% -25.0% -11.3% 5.4% -41.3% 9.9% -9.1% 6.6% -27.5% 18.0% 46.7% 28.7% 7月 9 -13.0% -24.1% -31.6% 1.8% -15.5% -2.8% 2.4% -23.0% -10.8% -8.8% -2.2% -11.9% 7.6% 14.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 5.9% 10.6% 6月 8 -13.1% -47.2% -49.2% 71.5% -1.1% -9.9% 2.2% -9.7% -9.9% -37.4% 0.2% 3.5% -9.1% -4.0% 12.6% 28.9% -11.4% 25.5% 11.6% 5月 1 -41.5% -77.9% -99.9% -19.2% -9.6% -27.6% -12.9% -20.6% -40.7% -66.5% -13.9% -12.1% -21.8% -22.8% -3.5% -29.4% -21.5% 10.2% -7.1% 4月 1 -41.1% -24.0% -100.0% -36.4% -21.1% -46.7% -26.9% -34.7% -65.7% -45.5% -12.1% -20.5% -29.1% -30.4% -23.6% -39.7% -23.4% 12.0% -42.0% 3月 3 -28.2% -10.3% -54.0% -19.6% -4.9% -38.1% -19.6% -34.6% -38.7% -25.6% -11.1% -56.4% -24.7% -33.1% -9.4% -53.4% 0.2% 12.9% 0.3% 资料来源：wind，中航证券研究所 （5）制造业走弱说明经济复苏基础仍不牢固，稳增长仍需政策持续发力，下半年国内流动性无需担忧