Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphiau0026#039;s Dropout Crisis, 2000-2005

Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia’s Dropout Crisis, 2000–2005Ruth Curran Neild, Ph.D.Robert Balfanz, Ph.D. About the AuthorsDr. Ruth Curran Neildis a Research Scientist at theCenter for Social Organi zation of Schools, JohnsHopkins University. During the academic year whenthis research was conducted (2005–2006), she was anassistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania’sGraduate School of Education.Dr. Robert Balfanzis a Principal Research Scientist at the Center for Social Organization of Schools,Johns Hopkins University. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6CHAPTER 1:High School Graduation and Dropout Trends in Philadelphia. . . . . . . . . 8Which Is the Best Way to Determine the Graduation and Dropout Rates? . . . . . . 8Who Is a Dropout? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9What Happened to Philadelphia Students in 2003–2004?: Dropout Rates Using the Annual Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Variation in Annual Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity and Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12School Type and Dropout. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Annual Dropout Rates by Neighborhood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Trends in Cohort Graduation and Dropout Rates: The Classes of 2000 Through 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17The First-Time Freshman Cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17The Freshman and Transfer Cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Trends in the “Graduation Gap”: Cohort Graduation Rates by Gender and Race/Ethnicity for First-Time Freshman Cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21CHAPTER 2:Who Does Not Graduate from High School?: The First-Time Freshman Class of 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26The Hazard of Dropping Out Within Eight Years of Starting High School . . . . . . 26Identifying Students at Highest Risk of Dropping Out . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Predicting Dropout Among Upper-Grades Students . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Non-Academic Predictors of Dropout . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Re-engaging Students with School: The Class of 2000 in June 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . 33CONCLUSION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35APPENDIX 1:Defining Dropout. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39APPENDIX 2:Comparing Graduation Rate Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46ENDNOTES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481TABLE OF CONTENTS e are deeply indebted to thevision and support of many citizens and civic leaders inPhiladelphia, whose concern for thefutures of out-of-school youth led them to initiate this research. Our work was supported by the gen-erosity of the William Penn Foundation.Dr. Candace Bell, Education ProgramOfficer at the William Penn Foundation,encouraged us to creatively use the city’sdata resources to map the landscape ofhigh school dropout in Philadelphia.Through out this project, School District of Phila delphia CEO Paul Vallas was genuinely supportive of our efforts tolearn more about the landscape ofdropout in Philadelphia.At the University of Pennsylvania, Dr.Dennis Culhane and Dr. John Fantuzzo,who developed and currently direct the KIDS data infrastructure, providedinvaluable guidance in negotiating andunderstanding the data sets and the cityagencies that provided the data. The staff at Penn’s Cartographic ModelingLaboratory—Carnell Baugh, JeanettaChurchill, Dr. Tara Jackson, Nora Hunt-Johnson, Vicky Tam, and Diane-Louise(D.L.) Wormley—were collaborative andsympathetic colleagues. We especiallythank Jeanetta Churchill and Carnell Baughfor their unrelenting work in obtaining andorganizing data sets, and Vicky Tam for cre-ating the map that appears in this report.We express sincere thanks to researchassistants Christopher Boccanfuso andGreg Katz at Johns Hopkins and Ching-fuLan at the University of Pennsylvania.We are grateful for the e