Estimating Changes in the Supply and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia (2015)

Estimating Changes in the Supply and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia Prepared by REINVESTMENT FUNDPublished MAY 2016RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY Policy Solutions at Reinvestment FundBill Schrecker, Research Analyst Ira Goldstein, President Page 1 Estimating Changes in the Supply and Demand for Child Care in Philadelphia In 2014, Reinvestment Fund analyzed the supply and demand for child care in Philadelphia and identified areas of the city where targeted investments could help address the shortage of high-quality child care. Now in the second year, we updated the original analysis to track changes over time in the supply, demand, and shortage of child care. To provide greater access to the research results, Reinvestment Fund created an interactive online tool, located at www.childcaremap.org. The tool identifies neighborhoods where high-quality child care is scarce in absolute and relative terms, while also giving funders, practitioners, and child care advocates better data on where resources and intervention are needed. As was the case in 2014, no single data source can adequately model the supply and quality of child care; nor is there any single dataset which can project the demand for child care services. To estimate supply and demand, Reinvestment Fund uses statistically derived estimates built from multiple sources of data. The data sources, statistical and spatial methodologies used in this report are based on established methodology from the initial 2014 study, supported by and developed alongside the project’s advisory group, which included local early childhood experts in Philadelphia. Echoing the 2014 results, the 2015 update did not find a substantial gap between the total supply of child care and the demand for care across the city. However, while certain neighborhoods saw improvements in the provision of child care over the past year of study, a shortage of certified and high-quality child care options still exists in many areas of the city. Estimating the Supply of Child Care Across Philadelphia, Reinvestment Fund estimated that the total supply of child care remained relatively constant from 2014 to 2015, with a less than 1% growth in seats, totaling over 100,900 estimated seats in the city. Of those, slightly more than 73,000 seats are certified with the Office of Child Development and Early Learning (OCDEL). This represents a 3.1% increase in the share of certified seats from the past year. Of those certified, 17,800 (24%) are rated as being of high-quality, STAR 3 or STAR 4 according to OCDEL’s Keystone STARS performance standards—a 3.5% increase in the share of certified seats from the year prior. Thirty-nine percent, or an estimated 28,700 certified seats have a lower quality rating (STAR 1 or STAR 2) and an estimated 26,700 (36%) do not have any quality rating. (See tables 1 & 2.) Page 2 These estimates are the maximum potential supply of child care seats, if every center enrolled at full capacity. Overall, the highest supply of child care is found to be close to major public transportation routes. We continue to see that the availability of certified, high-quality care is greater in areas with higher rates of poverty and lower incomes. On average, block groups where less than 10% of the population was African American had the lowest supply of certified, high-quality care. This is similar to the pattern observed in 2014. Table 1: Estimated Supply of Total Childcare Table 2: Estimated Supply of Certified Childcare Total (100,934) Certified (73,356) #%Certified73,356 72.7%3,1563.1% High Quality (3-4 STAR)17,864 17.7%3,2273.2%1-2 STAR28,781 28.5%-2,353-2.4%No STAR Level26,711 26.5%2,2822.3%Not Certified 27,578 27.3%-3,028-3.1%Total Seats100,934 128 Estimated Supply of ChildcareTotal Seats% of All SeatsChange from 2014 High Quality (3-4 STAR)17,864 24.4%3.5%1-2 STAR28,781 39.2%-5.2%No STAR Level26,711 36.4%1.6%Total Certified Seats73,356 100.0%Change in Share of Certified Estimated Supply of Certified ChildcareTotal SeatsShare of Certified Seats Page 3 Estimating the Need for Child Care According to 2015 population projections from Nielsen, 105,800 children under the age of five live in Philadelphia. Using this baseline projection for demand, Reinvestment Fund analyzed data from a variety of sources about where people live and work, as well as household size, income and family composition to consider family travel patterns that may affect demand for child care. Analyses suggest that 9,200 resident children travel with adults to child care located outside of the city near a parent’s place of work. In addition, we estimate that 16,400 children who live outside the city travel with parents to child care in the city. This yields a maximum potential demand for 113,000 child care seats in the city of Philadelphia.1 This figure represents an increase in d