化工策略周报：PTA创历史新低，天胶考验下方成本支撑

电话：010-84555193研究咨询部：张霄从业资格编号：F3010320投资咨询编号：Z0012288邮箱：zhangxiao@guoyuanqh.com相关报告公司地址：北京市东城区东直门外大46号天恒大厦B座21层电话：010-84555193请务必参阅报告正文后的重要声明国元期货研究咨询部化工策略周报2020.3.16化工系列PTA创历史新低天胶考验下方成本支撑橡胶：当前轮胎市场开工较前期略有好转，提升短期天胶需求。但是随着国外疫情加剧，后续外销依旧存在不确定，而且中汽协近日发布2月份汽车数据显示，国内汽车产销量出现大幅下滑，叠加原油大幅跳水，天然橡胶短期维持疲弱走势，有试探小下方10000一线预期，不排除跌破的可能。PTA：上周原油大幅下挫带动化工品市场下移，PX应声下挫成本重心大幅下移，并创上市以来新低，短期市场整体走势相对偏弱，低位震荡为主。塑料、PP:近期原油大幅下挫，油制成本利润相对客观，煤制成本已处于亏损边缘，市场重心下移，而当前聚烯烃石化库存去库存力度不佳，市场观望心态明显，短期难以有较大改观，弱势震荡为主。 化工·周报1/23目录一、橡胶、塑料、PP、PTA周度行情回顾......................................................3（一）期货市场回顾....................................................................................3（二）现货市场回顾..................................................................................4二、重要事件.......................................................................................................5三、基本面分析...................................................................................................6（一）原油大幅下挫部分品种创上市以来新低............................................6（二）橡胶市场供需分析情况:.......................................................................8（三）PTA市场供需分析情况:....................................................................10（四）塑料、PP市场供需分析情况:...........................................................14（五）小结.........................................................................................................17四、技术分析.....................................................................................................17五、基差分析及操作建议..................................................................................20 化工·周报2/23附图图表1本周能源化工内外盘收盘情况.........................................................................................................3图表2天胶和PTA成交量及持仓量情况.................................................................................................3图表3塑料和PP成交量及持仓量情况....................................................................................................4图表4能源化工现货市场情况.....................................................................................................................4图表5天胶和PTA现货市场、出厂价格走势.........................................................................................4图表6塑料和PP现货成交价格走势........................................................................................................5图表7WTI主力合约周K线图................................................................................................................7图表8布伦特主力合约周K线图............................................................................................................7图表9天然橡胶库存期货及可用库容量.....................................................................................................9图表10全钢胎及半钢胎开工率图..............................................................................................................9图表11PX外盘价...................................................................................................................................11图表12PTA装置开工率（%）及库存天数（天）.............................................................................12图表13PTA加工费（元/吨）...............................................................................................................12图表14PTA下游装置开工率..................................................................................................................13图表15PE装置开工率............................................................................................................................14图表16PP装置开工率...........................................................................................................................14图表17聚烯烃石化库存图及港口库存图（万吨）..............................................................................15图表18PE和PP下游装置开工率（%）.............................................................................................16图表19PE和PP油制和煤制成本...........................................................................................................16图表20RU主力合约日K线图.............................................................................................................17图表21TA主力合约日K线图..............................................................................................................18图表22塑料主力合约日K线图............................................................................................................19图表23PP主力合约技术分析图............................................................................................................19图表24天胶基差价格走势图....................................................................................................................20图表25PTA基差价格走势图.................................................................................................................21图表26塑料基差价格走势图....................................................................................................................21图表27PP基差价格走势图.....................................................................................................................22 化工·周报3/23一、橡胶、塑料、PP、PTA周度行情回顾（一）期货市场回顾图表1本