食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告 市场表现  本周行情回顾：本周各大指数都呈现了不同程度的上涨，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为+2.69%、+1.54%、+0.59%和+2.98%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为建筑装饰、农林牧渔和建筑材料，涨跌幅为+9.22%、+7.96%和+7.54%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是电子、计算机和有色金属，分别为-4.08%、-1.82%和-0.32%。食品饮料板块上涨5.82个百分点，跑赢沪深300指数2.84个百分点，列第六位。子行业涨跌幅排名前三的分别是调味发酵品（+4.03%）、其他酒类（+3.45%）和肉制品（+3.35%）。  行业及上市公司信息回顾：2019年1-11月酿酒行业产经数据出炉；全产业链协同振兴豌豆行业；达能2019年中国奶粉业务增长超20%；新乳业2019营收增14.13%；新西兰A2净利增长21%；百威英博2019年净利润91.7亿美元，增长109.9%；2019年德国葡萄酒对华出口量减额增；进口啤酒结束10年连涨，2019年进口量额双降；重庆啤酒宜宾公司拟投2.64亿新建拉罐生产线；1499元飞天茅台直供家乐福，首批投放10000瓶；古井贡酒拟投资89.24亿元用于酿酒智能化技改。  本周观点：突如其来的疫情对社会经济造成了巨大的影响，尤其是食品饮料等板块，但从长期来看，在GDP增速放缓、社销零售总额增速下滑的情况下，我们还是应该以“抗周期、稳增长”为目标，选择业绩更有保障、增速更为稳健的板块进行配置。2019年1-11月酿酒行业产经数据出炉，酿酒行业依然处于量跌价升的态势当中，大单品仍将是酒厂竞争的焦点。经过近几年行业的整体发展，竞争能力较弱的企业逐步退出，行业龙头会占领更大的市场，行业集中度会越来越高等。建议关注一线白酒龙头、次高端白酒、高端啤酒、速冻食品、复合调味发酵品、保健品等细分子行业以及此类行业中极具代表性的上市公司，如贵州茅台、五粮液、古井贡酒、今世缘、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、三全食品、天味食品、汤臣倍健等。  风险提示：新冠疫情导致消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 指数表现（最近一年） 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 2.69 11.84 0.71 深证成指 1.54 19.75 12.28 创业板指 0.59 23.04 22.88 沪深300 2.98 14.05 2.69 SW食品饮料 5.82 15.57 0.88 SW饮料制造 6.15 15.02 -1.35 SW食品加工 5.05 16.89 6.56 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -10%0%10%20%30%40%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002020年3月6日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（0228-0305） 行业评级：增持 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 华鑫证券·行业周报 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1本周SW食品饮料跑赢沪深300指数 ·················································································································· 3 1.2本周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ·························································································································· 3 1.3 2020年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名倒数第九 ·································································································· 4 1.4 估值回到历史中位水平 ········································································································································· 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾.................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 2019年1-11月酿酒行业产经数据出炉 ················································································································ 5 2.2 全产业链协同，振兴豌豆行业 ····························································································································· 6 2.3 达能发布2019年财报：中国奶粉业务增长超20%，双十一贡献最大 ···························································· 6 2.4 国内乳企首份业绩报：新乳业2019营收增14.13% ·························································································· 7 2.5 新西兰A2净利增长21%，中文标签奶粉收入翻番 ···························································································· 7 2.6 百威英博2019年净利润91.7亿美元，增长109.9% ························································································· 8 2.7 2019年德国葡萄酒对华出口量减额增 ················································································································· 8 2.8 进口啤酒结束10年连涨，2019年进口量额双降 ······························································································ 8 2.9 重庆啤酒宜宾公司拟投2.64亿新建拉罐生产线 ································································································ 8 2.10 德国冰酒首次停产 ··············································································································································· 9 2.11 1499元飞天茅台直供家乐福，首批投放10000瓶 ··························································································· 9 2.12 古井贡酒拟投资89.24亿元用于酿酒智能化技改 ···························································································· 9 3. 本周观点..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 4. 风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 图表1：本周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ··································································································· 3 图表2：本周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ··························································································· 4 图表3：2020年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ······································································································ 4 图表4：2020年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ······················································································ 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍） ··········································································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静