科创板询价报告之华润微

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·公司研究 证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 主要财务指标（单位：百万元）  华润微成立于2003年，是中国领先的拥有芯片设计、晶圆制造、封装测试等全产业链一体化经营能力的半导体企业。公司主要产品为功率半导体、智能传感器与智能控制，并提供半导体开放式晶圆制造、封装测试等服务。  功率器件规模全国第一，国内MOSFET龙头。在功率器件领域，华润微电子是2018年中国规模最大的功率器件企业。其中，MOSFET是公司最主要的产品之一，公司是国内营业收入最大、产品系列最全的MOSFET厂商。根据IHS Markit的统计，公司在中国MOSFET市场中排名第三，仅次于英飞凌与安森美两家国际企业，是中国最大的MOSFET厂商。  中美科技较量推动本土功率芯片企业的发展。2018年以来，美国对众多中国科技企业的打压暴露了国内在芯片领域的薄弱。以华为为代表的本土科技巨头开始大力培育国内本土芯片企业。同时，2019年10月成立的国家集成电路产业基金（大基金）二期正是对我国半导体行业实现国产替代的资金支持。国产功率半导体、传感器和MCU等半导体产品在自主可控、国产替代的浪潮下将迎来较好的发展机会。  公司未来的增长点包括：1）进一步提升功率半导体芯片（包含MOSFET、IGBT等等）的市场份额，实现高端功率半导体的进口替代； 2）在智能传感器领域拓展产品线，实现进一步进口替代。长期来看，公司将进一步聚焦于功率半导体及智能传感器等广泛应用于新经济领域的半导体产品，深耕进口替代的中国市场机会。  公司估值与询价建议：我们采用PE相对估值法给予公司估值为14.76元/股，采用DCF法给予公司估值为13.54元/股。长期来看，由于注册制的推进，我们预计科创板市场的估值将更为理性。综合考虑两种估值方法，我们采用PE估值法和DCF估值法的平均值作为公司的最终估值，即公司的合理估值中枢为14.15元/股，对应总市值159.9亿元（IPO后）。以30%的询价区间计算，建议询价区间[12.30，15.99]元/股。  风险提示：半导体行业景气度波动、下游市场需求不及预期、公司新技术研发进度跟不上海外竞争对手、核心原材料涨价、国际竞争对手的价格竞争风险等。 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 营业收入 6,271 5,735 6,947 8,311 （+/-） 6.7% -8.5% 21.1% 19.6% 营业利润 586 506 637 883 （+/-） -1376.1% -13.5% 25.8% 38.7% 归属母公司净利润 429 368 469 661 （+/-） 511.0% -14.2% 27.4% 40.8% EPS（元） 0.52 0.33 0.42 0.59 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 邮箱：xupeng@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（8621）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2020年2月7日 电子 科创板询价报告之华润微（688396） 建议询价区间：[12.30，15.99]元/股 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 华鑫证券·公司研究 目录 一、 公司概况 ································································································································································ 3 1.公司简介：国内功率半导体龙头 ········································································································································ 3 2.产业转移、中美科技较量推动我国芯片行业的发展 ········································································································ 5 3.主要客户 ··············································································································································································· 6 二、财务数据 ···································································································································································· 6 三、公司股权结构及募投项目 ········································································································································· 8 四、公司估值及询价建议 ················································································································································· 9 1. 假设条件及盈利预测 ·························································································································································· 9 2. PE相对估值····································································································································································· 10 3．DCF绝对估值 ··································································································································································· 11 4．询价建议··········································································································································································· 11 五、风险提示 ·································································································································································· 11 图表1 MOSFET示意图 ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 图表2晶圆示意图 ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 图表3公司产品与方案 ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 图表4公司制造与服务资源产能 ....................................................................................................................................... 4 图表5 2018年中国本土半导体企业排名第十 .................................................................................................................. 4 图表6 2018年度中国功率器件企业销售额 ..................................................................................................................... 5 图表7中国MOSFET销售额与市场份额占比 ..................................................................................................................... 5 图表8 2013-2018年中国半导体产业市场规模与增速（亿元） .................................................................................... 5 图表9 2018年公司前五大客户 .......................................................................................................................................... 6 图表10公司营收及净利润（2016年至2019年1-9月） ..................................................