亚洲经济分析：2016年针对亚洲经济体的10个问题

2016年1月11日 Issue No: 16/01 亚洲经济分析 研究报告2016年针对亚洲经济体的10个问题 2016年预测重点 在本期的“亚洲经济分析”中，我们将以问答形式着重指出我们2016年预测的部分元素，并回顾我们去年预测的表现。 总体增长乏力 我们预计中国经济将经历曲折下行和出口疲软，且这将在2016年对地区增长构成拖累。在这一环境下，即使油价触底反弹，亚洲地区的通胀压力应会维持在低位。大多数央行都不大可能追随美联储收紧政策，实际上，我们预计未来几个月部分央行将进一步放松政策，其中包括东北亚全部主要经济体。 货币进一步贬值 鉴于我们预计美联储收紧程度超出预期且人民币将进一步贬值（我们预计年底美元兑人民币汇率为7），我们认为亚洲地区货币存在进一步贬值空间，但我们并不认为将出现最为极端的尾部风险事件（如我们并不认为港元将放弃盯住美元）。 亮点仍存 尽管备受关注的改革计划推迟，但我们认为印度商业环境将大大改善，并预计印度增长将小幅加速；印尼和菲律宾未来几年的增长潜力相对较高。 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +852-2978-0048 goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Tushar Poddar +91(22)6616-9042 tushar.poddar@gs.com 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 宋宇 +86(10)6627-3111 yu.song@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 邓敏强 +852-2978-6634 mk.tang@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Reza Siregar +65-6889-2472 reza.siregar@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 Matthieu Droumaguet +852-2978-1084 matthieu.droumaguet@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Jonathan Sequeira +852-2978-0698 jonathan.sequeira@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Vishal Vaibhaw +91(22)6616-9376 vishal.vaibhaw@gs.com 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 Nupur Gupta +65-6654-5438 nupur.x.gupta@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 魏静娴 +852-2978-0106 maggie.wei@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Mallika Chawla +65-6654-5539 mallika.chawla@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 高盛集团 全球投资研究 2016年1月11日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 2 10 questions for the Asian economies in 2016 As a new year begins, we highlight some of the key themes of our 2016 forecasts in a question-and-answer format. The box on pages 9-10 reviews our performance from last year. 1. Will regional growth pick up in 2016? No. Though we do expect better growth in a few of the smaller economies, China is apt to decelerate further in 2016 (we expect 6.4% for real GDP growth, with alternative indicators currently suggesting a slower pace), and continued policy support will be important to prevent a deeper downturn.1 Our Japan forecast is roughly in line with consensus at 1.2%. On net, weaker growth in China and modestly better outcomes in some other economies (e.g. India) should keep regional growth roughly steady (Exhibit 1), although we see risks as skewed to the downside. Exhibit 1. Deceleration in China to weigh on regional growth Contributions to total Asia economic growth (PPP basis) Source: IMFWEO, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 2. Will regional (real) exports continue to underperform headline growth? Yes. Regional real export growth began to undershoot real GDP growth by an average of 0.5 pp between 2012 and 2014 and then by a wider margin of 7.2pp in 2015 through Q3 (Exhibit 2).2 We expect external demand to grow only modestly, and the import-intensity of that demand to be relatively low.3 Structural challenges from China’s import substitution and its rebalancing away from investment towards consumption make a strong bounce-back in trade unlikely in the short term. Exhibit 3 illustrates that China’s share of G3 imports has been stable, and the rest of AEJ’s marginally declining, since the Global Financial Crisis. 1 See A. Tilton, et al. “Asia 2016 economic outlook: Policy tries to fill the growth gaps”, Asia Economics Analyst 15/36 2 See G. Kwon, I. Choi, A. Tilton, “ Asian domestic demand-its size and its linkages to exports”, AEA 15/40 3 See G. Kwon, I. Choi “Weakening value chains and trade stagnation in Asia”, AEA 15/32 01234567890123456789201020112012201320142015F2016FJapanSingaporeKoreaHong KongTaiwanThailandPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaIndiaChinaPercent change, yoyPercent change, yoy 2016年1月11日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 3 Exhibit 2. Export growth has been lower than GDP growth in Asia since 2011 Source: China NBS, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 3. Emerging Asia’s export market share in G3 has been roughly flat since GFC Note: Calculations are for non-commodity trade. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 3. Will inflation rebound enough to be a meaningful constraint on monetary policy across the region? No – except maybe in India. Despite the ongoing drop in crude oil prices to around GFC lows, headline inflation is likely to rebound as 2016 progresses, given lower comparisons. However, most countries in the region are still operating below our estimate of potential output, and with lower-than-target inflation, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. Only in Malaysia has core inflation recently been above typical historical levels. -15-10-5051015202530-15-10-505101520253095 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Asia real exportsAsia real gdpPercent change, yoyPercent change, yoy05101520253005101520253000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16AEJ ex ChinaChina (Right axis)Percent share of G3 imports (3mma)Percent share of G3 imports (3mma) 2016年1月11日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 4 Exhibit 4. Most of the