太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）维持持有评级：以火箭为核心的太空、连接与人工智能模式

GlobalThematic research SpaceX Initiate at Hold: Rocket-centric Space, Connectivity, and AI aredesigned to leverage a repeatable,vertically integrated, cost-efficientmodel; SpaceX’s market leadingrocket operation already effectivelysupports Starlink Full vertical integration relies onas yet unproven technologies,including orbital compute powerfor its GenAI models, the outcomeof which impacts the requiredSpace launch cadence We initiate at Hold with anSOTP-based target price ofUSD115, including an innovationpremium of 2x. Our blue-skyscenario is USD293 Disclosures & Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Financials & valuation:SpaceX *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securiites (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Contents Why read this report? The message from Space(X) Valuation premium warranted17 Space–the platform Connectivity / Starlink AI57 Financial statement review 86 Learnings from Tesla Governance92 Disclaimer105 We acknowledge the contribution of BangaloreAssociates Sonam Chamaria(Lead AVP) andPulkit Aggarwal (AVP) in the preparation of thisreport. Why read this report? ◆SpaceX holds a competitive, leading position in the commercialspace launch market, underpinning its long-term strategy ◆Stronginnovationtrack record so far; we are prudent on pricing inSpaceX’sfuturistic calls including spacedatacentres, Terafab,andthelunar economy ◆We apply an“innovationpremium”to ourfundamentalvaluationtoderiveour TPof USD115.00, which implies0.2%downside,andwethereforeinitiatewith aHoldrating; our blue-sky scenarioimplies avaluationofUSD293.00 Howthe market viewsSpaceX We believe there aretwo broadinvestorcamps for SpaceX. There are those whose viewthecompany as a foundation platform incorporating all ofCEOElon Musk’s vision, which hasthepotential to change the world. The secondcampmay not fully dismissMrMusk’s plans,but isnot ready to pay ahead of delivery. We note thatTesla has not traded on classicalfundamentals,reflecting the fact thatthere may be greater support from bullishinvestorsthanthe more scepticalinvestors. What we bring to the debate SpaceXbrings a host of technological innovations and futuristic opportunities. However, thereare a series of questions that we believe investors should consider when evaluating company.We aim to analyse thesein further detail in this report, alongside challenging some implicationsfrom theSEC Form S-1 prospectus, including thetotal addressable market (TAM)forconnectivity, the necessityor feasibilityof orbital datacentres,as well asTerafab,and thereforethedegreeof launch cadence required. Whatwe expectfor 2030e For the group, weestimaterevenuesof USD106bn, adjusted EBITDA of USD76bn,GAAP operatingprofit of USD16bnandFCFof USD12.9bn.Fromwhat we can learn fromVisible Alpha consensus,weare72%below expectations on revenues andadjusted EBITDAfor2030e. Ultimately, we may bewrong,but wecouldbe right too–for these higher revenue estimates to come to fruition,a variety ofchallengesmust beovercome,butwe donotthinkthisis feasibleby2030. How we value SpaceX–adetailed SOTP and an “innovation premium” We value each business segment separately before we apply an “innovation premium” of 2.0x(page17). When valuing a company, analysts may sometimesapply a discount (holding structures,dyssynergies, risksetc),but we also consider the case for applying a premium, especially when astrong founder has a proven track record of transforming some industries (including cars androckets). We considered severalvaluationapproaches, includingthose for valuingSPACs, miningstocks,orthebiotech/pharma sector, butin our viewnone of these methodologies correctly capture the innovation multiplethatwe believe should be considered.Therefore,wehave looked atTesla’sshareprice performanceover the first 10-yearssince itsIPO, as we believe this is the mostappropriate proxy todetermine a valuation premium given the commonality in CEO/founder,innovation approach, and developing disruptive technology into a sustainable business. Based on our observation of Tesla’ssharepriceperformanceand consensus target pricesset bysell sideresearch analystscovering the stock,we conclude thatoverthe first 10 yearssince itsIPO,i.e.2010-20(we take this period to reflect the early stage and rate of innovation of thebusiness),Tesla’sshare price was more than double (118%) the average target pricetheyearbefore. This indicatesthatfundamentalvaluation methods do not reflect what the market may beready to pay for management or‘flywheel’effects,i.e. incremental advances in technology andefficiency compound over time,eventually leading to a sustainable, growing business model.We also conducted the same calculation forthe ‘Magnificent 7’(Mag-7)peer group (Alphabet,Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia,andOracle)andderivea much lower premium of